Staffanstorp United v IFK Trelleborg prediction · Division 2

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 16:04

Staffanstorp United 3–1 IFK Trelleborg IFK TRELLEBORG WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said IFK Trelleborg win~~48%

~~The market said~~54%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.780

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.947

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

IFK Trelleborg are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Staffanstorp United 29%, draw 23%, IFK Trelleborg 48%. Over 2.5 goals 66%, both teams to score 65%.

The AI’s read on Staffanstorp United v IFK TrelleborgBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Staffanstorp United win29%

Draw23%

IFK Trelleborg win48%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 13:00

RoundSödra Götaland · matchday 26

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Staffanstorp United

IFK Trelleborg

7Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · Division 2 - Södra Götaland

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	IFK Trelleborg	25	+29	53
9	Staffanstorp United	25	−2	29

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · ifk trelleborg winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

48% The market54%

Us48%

~~Market~~54%

We make IFK Trelleborg a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 54%. We are 6 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Staffanstorp United v IFK Trelleborg~~1.47 – 1.94

~~Form · last six in Division 2 - Södra Götaland this season · since 6 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W5 D0 L1

~~Table places · points 29 v 53~~9 v 2

~~The market · IFK Trelleborg win~~54% · ours 48%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · IFK Trelleborg win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 54% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Staffanstorp United win	29%	23%	+6
Draw	23%	23%	0
IFK Trelleborg win	48%	54%	−6
Over 2.5 goals	66%	64%	+2
Both teams to score	65%	63%	+2
Over 1.5 goals	85%	82%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	44%	43%	+1
Staffanstorp United or draw	52%	46%	+6
Staffanstorp United clean sheet	15%	–	–
IFK Trelleborg clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 2 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.7%

0123450 3.9 6.1 6.2 4.0 2.0 1 4.6 9.7 8.8 5.7 2.8 2 3.7 6.8 6.5 4.2 2.1 3 3.4 3.2 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Staffanstorp United down, IFK Trelleborg across0–5 goals a side shown (97.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,115 Division 2 - Södra Götaland matches up to 12 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Division 2 - Södra Götaland matches have gone over 2.5 in 68.0% of games this season, across 175 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2025 in every competition we cover, 4.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Staffanstorp United at home: 1.83 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). IFK Trelleborg away: 3.17 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.47 goals for Staffanstorp United, 1.94 for IFK Trelleborg. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~IFK 3–1 STA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Division 2 - Södra Götaland this season · since 6 Sept

STAFFANSTORP UNITED

LWDLWW0–2 · 2–0 · 2–2 · 0–3 · 4–0 · 2–0

IFK TRELLEBORG

LWWWWW1–2 · 4–1 · 4–1 · 4–3 · 2–0 · 2–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Karlskrona	25	+41	60
2	IFK Trelleborg	25	+29	53
3	Oskarshamns AIK	25	+28	45
4	Berga	25	+18	43
5	Nosaby	25	+7	42
6	Linero	25	+6	41
7	Växjö Norra	25	−4	35
8	Österlen	25	+1	33
9	Staffanstorp United	25	−2	29
10	Lilla Torg	25	−8	29
11	Sölvesborg	25	−11	29
12	Torns	25	−40	21
13	Räppe	25	−29	18
14	Karlshamn	25	−36	14