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Sölvesborg v Lilla Torg

Sölvesborg

1–1Full time

Lilla Torg

Division 2 - Södra Götaland · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 15:10

Sölvesborg 1–1 Lilla Torg SÖLVESBORG WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Sölvesborg win~~46%

~~The market said~~43%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.908

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.850

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

Timeline

Match events aren’t available for this match.

Pre-match prediction

Sölvesborg win46%

Draw23%

Lilla Torg win31%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 12:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · sölvesborg winPublished 10 Oct 15:19

46% The market43%

Us46%

~~Market~~43%

We make Sölvesborg a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 43%. We are 4 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.9–1.5.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · sölvesborg win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 50% to 43% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Sölvesborg win	46%	43%	+4
Draw	23%	25%	−2
Lilla Torg win	31%	32%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	66%	64%	+1
Both teams to score	66%	66%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	85%	81%	+4
Over 3.5 goals	44%	44%	0
Sölvesborg or draw	69%	68%	+1
Sölvesborg clean sheet	23%	–	–
Lilla Torg clean sheet	15%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.7%

0123450 3.9 4.7 3.8 1 6.0 9.7 7.0 3.6 2 6.0 8.8 6.6 3.3 3 3.8 5.5 4.2 2.1 4 2.7 2.0 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Sölvesborg down, Lilla Torg across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,108 Division 2 - Södra Götaland matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Division 2 - Södra Götaland matches have gone over 2.5 in 67.9% of games this season, across 168 played.

Head to head

1 previous meetings, 5.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Sölvesborg at home: 1.33 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Lilla Torg away: 1.83 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.90 goals for Sölvesborg, 1.52 for Lilla Torg. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~5.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~0 of 1

~~Last meetings~~LIL 0–5 SOL

Form · last six in Division 2 - Södra Götaland

SÖLVESBORG

LWLLWL0–1 · 3–2 · 0–2 · 1–4 · 3–2 · 0–4

LILLA TORG

WWDDDL3–1 · 3–1 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 3–3 · 2–3

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Karlskrona	24	+42	60
2	IFK Trelleborg	24	+28	50
3	Oskarshamns AIK	24	+30	45
4	Berga	24	+16	40
5	Nosaby	24	+6	39
6	Linero	24	+4	38
7	Växjö Norra	24	−2	35
8	Österlen	24	−4	30
9	Lilla Torg	24	−8	28
10	Sölvesborg	24	−11	28
11	Staffanstorp United	24	−4	26
12	Torns	24	−35	21
13	Räppe	24	−28	18
14	Karlshamn	24	−34	14