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Räppe v Nosaby

Räppe

1–2Full time

Nosaby

Division 2 - Södra Götaland · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 15:38

Räppe 1–2 Nosaby NOSABY WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Nosaby win~~44%

~~The market said~~43%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.480

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.482

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 11 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Nosaby win at 44%.
1′KICK-OFF Räppe v Nosaby
2′Much as we predicted: Nosaby was 44% before kick-off and our model makes it 44% now. 0–0 · 32–24–44
45′HALF-TIME Räppe 0–0 Nosaby
50′SECOND HALF Räppe 0–0 Nosaby
54′⚽ GOAL · 54' Räppe 0–1 Nosaby
67′Nosaby find the net on 54′. 0–1. 0–1 · 4–18–79
67′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 67' Nosaby win: 44% at kick-off, 79% now
81′⚽ GOAL · 81' Räppe 0–2 Nosaby
84′⚽ GOAL · 54' Räppe 0–2 Nosaby
84′⚽ GOAL · 81' Räppe 0–2 Nosaby
88′A goal for Nosaby on 81′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 0–0–100
88′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 88' Nosaby win: 44% at kick-off, 100% now
90′⚽ GOAL · 90' Räppe 1–2 Nosaby
FTFULL TIME Räppe 1–2 Nosaby
FTRäppe 1–2 Nosaby · Nosaby win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Räppe win32%

Draw24%

Nosaby win44%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 13:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · nosaby winPublished 10 Oct 13:12

44% The market43%

Us44%

~~Market~~43%

We make Nosaby a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 43%. We are within 0 points of the market. The model expects 1.4–1.7.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · nosaby win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 45% to 43% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Räppe win	32%	32%	0
Draw	24%	25%	−1
Nosaby win	44%	43%	0
Over 2.5 goals	60%	66%	−6
Both teams to score	61%	67%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	82%	83%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	38%	46%	−8
Räppe or draw	56%	57%	0
Räppe clean sheet	19%	–	–
Nosaby clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.9%

0123450 5.0 7.1 6.3 3.6 1 6.0 10.9 8.7 5.0 2.2 2 4.6 7.4 6.2 3.5 3 2.2 3.6 3.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Räppe down, Nosaby across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,108 Division 2 - Södra Götaland matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Division 2 - Södra Götaland matches have gone over 2.5 in 67.9% of games this season, across 168 played.

Head to head

11 previous meetings, 3.09 goals a meeting; 8 of 11 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Räppe at home: 1.00 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). Nosaby away: 1.50 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.43 goals for Räppe, 1.70 for Nosaby. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

11 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~3.09

~~Over 2.5~~8 of 11

~~Both scored~~9 of 11

~~Last meetings~~NOS 1–1 RAP · RAP 2–2 NOS · NOS 1–2 RAP · NOS 1–2 RAP

Form · last six in Division 2 - Södra Götaland

RÄPPE

LLLWDL1–3 · 2–3 · 1–7 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 0–2

NOSABY

LWLDWW1–3 · 2–1 · 1–3 · 0–0 · 3–0 · 3–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Karlskrona	24	+42	60
2	IFK Trelleborg	24	+28	50
3	Oskarshamns AIK	24	+30	45
4	Berga	24	+16	40
5	Nosaby	24	+6	39
6	Linero	24	+4	38
7	Växjö Norra	24	−2	35
8	Österlen	24	−4	30
9	Lilla Torg	24	−8	28
10	Sölvesborg	24	−11	28
11	Staffanstorp United	24	−4	26
12	Torns	24	−35	21
13	Räppe	24	−28	18
14	Karlshamn	24	−34	14