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Oskarshamns AIK v Berga

Oskarshamns AIK

1–3Full time

Berga

Division 2 - Södra Götaland · MON 12 OCT · Arena Oskarshamn

Full timeGraded 12 Oct 20:30

Oskarshamns AIK 1–3 Berga OSKARSHAMNS AIK WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Oskarshamns AIK win~~56%

~~The market said~~55%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.934

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.953

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 22 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Oskarshamns AIK win at 56%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Oskarshamns AIK 56% before kick-off, 57% now. 0–0 · 57–19–24
1′KICK-OFF Oskarshamns AIK v Berga
4′⚽ GOAL · 4' Oskarshamns AIK 1–0 Berga
5′Oskarshamns AIK find the net on 4′. 1–0. 1–0 · 76–14–11
5′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 5' Oskarshamns AIK win: 56% at kick-off, 76% now
6′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 6' Oskarshamns AIK win: 56% at kick-off, 76% now
7′Oskarshamns AIK ahead on 3′ through M. Rautiola. 1–0. 1–0 · 76–14–10
7′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 7' Oskarshamns AIK win: 56% at kick-off, 76% now
9′We said Oskarshamns AIK at 56% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 76%. 1–0 · 76–14–10
31′The goal count is tracking the 3.9 we expected. 1–0 · 76–15–9
32′The goal count is tracking the 3.9 we expected. 1–0 · 76–16–9
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 42' Oskarshamns AIK win: 56% at kick-off, 76% now
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 43' Oskarshamns AIK win: 56% at kick-off, 76% now
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 44' Oskarshamns AIK win: 56% at kick-off, 76% now
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Oskarshamns AIK win: 56% at kick-off, 76% now
45′HALF-TIME Oskarshamns AIK 1–0 Berga
46′🟨 YELLOW · 22' B. L. Pettersson · Oskarshamns AIK
46′🟥 RED CARD · 22' B. L. Pettersson · Oskarshamns AIK
46′SECOND HALF Oskarshamns AIK 1–0 Berga
59′⚽ GOAL · 59' Oskarshamns AIK 1–1 Berga
73′⚽ GOAL · 73' Oskarshamns AIK 1–2 Berga
81′⚽ GOAL · 3' Oskarshamns AIK 1–2 Berga · M. Rautiola
81′🟨 YELLOW · 22' B. L. Pettersson · Oskarshamns AIK
81′🟥 RED CARD · 22' B. L. Pettersson · Oskarshamns AIK
81′⚽ GOAL · 59' Oskarshamns AIK 1–2 Berga · I. Magnusson
81′⚽ GOAL · 73' Oskarshamns AIK 1–2 Berga · I. Magnusson
90′⚽ GOAL · 92' Oskarshamns AIK 1–3 Berga
FTFULL TIME Oskarshamns AIK 1–3 Berga
FTOskarshamns AIK 1–3 Berga · Oskarshamns AIK win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with a pass — 7 days or 30 days.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published 12 Oct 17:18 · locked at kick-off

Oskarshamns AIK win56%

Draw20%

Berga win24%

Kick-offMON 12 OCT · 18:00

VenueArena Oskarshamn

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Oskarshamns AIK

Berga

9Days since last match8

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Oskarshamns AIK	24	+30	45
6	Berga	24	+16	40

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · oskarshamns aik winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 12 Oct 17:18 · locked at kick-off

56% The market55%

Us56%

~~Market~~55%

We make Oskarshamns AIK a 56% chance to win. The market has them at 55%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 2.4–1.5.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · oskarshamns aik win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 55% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Oskarshamns AIK win	56%	55%	+1
Draw	20%	22%	−2
Berga win	24%	23%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	74%	–	–
Both teams to score	70%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	90%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	54%	–	–
Oskarshamns AIK or draw	76%	77%	−1
Oskarshamns AIK clean sheet	22%	–	–
Berga clean sheet	10%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 1 bookmaker, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 8.5%

0123450 2.5 2.9 2.4 1 4.6 7.6 5.5 2.8 2 5.8 8.5 6.3 3.2 3 4.6 6.7 5.0 2.6 4 2.8 4.0 3.0 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Oskarshamns AIK down, Berga across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,114 Division 2 - Södra Götaland matches up to 12 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Division 2 - Södra Götaland matches have gone over 2.5 in 67.8% of games this season, across 174 played.

Head to head

1 previous meetings, 2.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Oskarshamns AIK at home: 4.17 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Berga away: 2.33 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.39 goals for Oskarshamns AIK, 1.53 for Berga. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~BER 1–1 OSK

Form · last six in Division 2 - Södra Götaland

OSKARSHAMNS AIK

WLWLLW2–1 · 1–2 · 7–1 · 0–2 · 3–4 · 2–0

BERGA

LLWWLW1–4 · 1–3 · 3–1 · 4–1 · 2–3 · 3–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Karlskrona	25	+41	60
2	IFK Trelleborg	25	+29	53
3	Oskarshamns AIK	24	+30	45
4	Nosaby	25	+7	42
5	Linero	25	+6	41
6	Berga	24	+16	40
7	Växjö Norra	25	−4	35
8	Österlen	25	+1	33
9	Staffanstorp United	25	−2	29
10	Lilla Torg	25	−8	29
11	Sölvesborg	25	−11	29
12	Torns	25	−40	21
13	Räppe	25	−29	18
14	Karlshamn	25	−36	14