Nosaby v Österlen prediction · Division 2 - Södra Götaland

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 16:04

Nosaby 1–0 Österlen NOSABY WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Nosaby win~~46%

~~The market said~~42%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.434

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.515

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 12 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Nosaby win at 46%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Nosaby 46% before kick-off, 46% now. 0–0 · 46–23–31
1′KICK-OFF Nosaby v Österlen
45′HALF-TIME Nosaby 0–0 Österlen
46′SECOND HALF Nosaby 0–0 Österlen
52′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 52' Nosaby win: 46% at kick-off, 36% now
55′Goalless on 55′ when we expected about 3.5 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 35–39–26
56′THE CALL SWINGS · 56' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Nosaby win 35%)
57′We said Nosaby at 46%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–40–25
66′We said Nosaby at 46%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–48–22
70′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 70' Nosaby win: 46% at kick-off, 26% now
73′We said Nosaby at 46%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–57–19
78′We said Nosaby at 46%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–66–15
81′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 81' Nosaby win: 46% at kick-off, 15% now
82′We said Nosaby at 46%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 14–75–11
85′A goal for Nosaby on 85′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 92–8–0
85′We said Nosaby at 46% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 92%. 1–0 · 92–8–0
85′⚽ GOAL · 85' Nosaby 1–0 Österlen
85′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 85' Nosaby win: 46% at kick-off, 92% now
85′THE CALL SWINGS · 85' Nosaby win is now our likeliest result at 92% (was Draw 8%)
89′We said Nosaby at 46% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
91′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+1' Nosaby win: 46% at kick-off, 96% now
FTFULL TIME Nosaby 1–0 Österlen
FTNosaby 1–0 Österlen · Nosaby win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Nosaby are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Nosaby 46%, draw 23%, Österlen 31%. Over 2.5 goals 67%, both teams to score 67%.

The AI’s read on Nosaby v ÖsterlenBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Nosaby win46%

Draw23%

Österlen win31%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 13:00

RoundSödra Götaland · matchday 26

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Nosaby

Österlen

8Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · Division 2 - Södra Götaland

Last match: 11 Oct · Division 2 - Södra Götaland

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Nosaby	25	+7	42
8	Österlen	25	+1	33

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · nosaby winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · updated 16 Oct 03:59 · locked at kick-off

46% The market42%

Us46%

~~Market~~42%

We make Nosaby a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 42%. We are 4 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.9–1.6.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Nosaby v Österlen~~1.94 – 1.56

~~Form · last six in Division 2 - Södra Götaland this season · since 5 Sept~~W4 D1 L1 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 42 v 33~~5 v 8

~~The market · Nosaby win~~42% · ours 46%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Nosaby win The market, margin stripped

Published at 47%, 46% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 42% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Nosaby win	46%	42%	+4
Draw	23%	24%	−1
Österlen win	31%	34%	−3
Over 2.5 goals	67%	67%	0
Both teams to score	67%	68%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	86%	85%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	46%	47%	−1
Nosaby or draw	69%	66%	+3
Nosaby clean sheet	22%	–	–
Österlen clean sheet	15%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 2 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.5%

0123450 3.6 4.5 3.7 1 5.6 9.5 7.0 3.6 2 5.7 8.6 6.6 3.5 3 3.7 5.6 4.3 2.2 4 2.8 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Nosaby down, Österlen across0–5 goals a side shown (97.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,115 Division 2 - Södra Götaland matches up to 12 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Division 2 - Södra Götaland matches have gone over 2.5 in 68.0% of games this season, across 175 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 9 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 2.78 goals a meeting; 6 of 9 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Nosaby at home: 2.67 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Österlen away: 1.33 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.94 goals for Nosaby, 1.56 for Österlen. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.78

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 9

~~Both scored~~7 of 9

~~Last meetings~~OST 2–1 NOS · OST 4–1 NOS · NOS 2–1 OST · NOS 0–3 OST

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Division 2 - Södra Götaland this season · since 5 Sept

NOSABY

WLDWWW2–1 · 1–3 · 0–0 · 3–0 · 3–2 · 2–1

ÖSTERLEN

WLDDLW6–0 · 1–4 · 2–2 · 3–3 · 0–3 · 5–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Karlskrona	25	+41	60
2	IFK Trelleborg	25	+29	53
3	Oskarshamns AIK	25	+28	45
4	Berga	25	+18	43
5	Nosaby	25	+7	42
6	Linero	25	+6	41
7	Växjö Norra	25	−4	35
8	Österlen	25	+1	33
9	Staffanstorp United	25	−2	29
10	Lilla Torg	25	−8	29
11	Sölvesborg	25	−11	29
12	Torns	25	−40	21
13	Räppe	25	−29	18
14	Karlshamn	25	−36	14