Lilla Torg v Karlshamn prediction · Division 2 - Södra Götaland

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 16:04

Lilla Torg 5–1 Karlshamn LILLA TORG WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Lilla Torg win~~58%

~~The market said~~51%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.261

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.357

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Lilla Torg are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Lilla Torg 58%, draw 21%, Karlshamn 20%. Over 2.5 goals 63%, both teams to score 60%.

The AI’s read on Lilla Torg v KarlshamnBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Lilla Torg win58%

Draw21%

Karlshamn win20%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 13:00

RoundSödra Götaland · matchday 26

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Lilla Torg

Karlshamn

8Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · Division 2 - Södra Götaland

Last match: 11 Oct · Division 2 - Södra Götaland

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	Lilla Torg	25	−8	29
14	Karlshamn	25	−36	14

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · lilla torg winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

58% The market51%

Us58%

~~Market~~51%

We make Lilla Torg a 58% chance to win. The market has them at 51%. We are 7 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.1–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Lilla Torg v Karlshamn~~2.11 – 1.17

~~Form · last six in Division 2 - Södra Götaland this season · since 5 Sept~~W1 D4 L1 · W1 D0 L5

~~Table places · points 29 v 14~~10 v 14

~~The market · Lilla Torg win~~51% · ours 58%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Lilla Torg win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 51% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Lilla Torg win	58%	51%	+7
Draw	21%	24%	−3
Karlshamn win	20%	25%	−5
Over 2.5 goals	63%	64%	−1
Both teams to score	60%	64%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	84%	84%	0
Over 3.5 goals	41%	44%	−3
Lilla Torg or draw	80%	75%	+5
Lilla Torg clean sheet	32%	–	–
Karlshamn clean sheet	13%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 2 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.6%

0123450 4.4 4.1 2.6 1 7.7 9.6 5.4 2.1 2 8.4 9.5 5.5 2.2 3 5.9 6.7 3.9 4 3.1 3.6 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Lilla Torg down, Karlshamn across0–5 goals a side shown (97.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,115 Division 2 - Södra Götaland matches up to 12 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Division 2 - Södra Götaland matches have gone over 2.5 in 68.0% of games this season, across 175 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2026 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Lilla Torg at home: 2.33 scored, 2.17 conceded a game (last 6). Karlshamn away: 0.83 scored, 3.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.11 goals for Lilla Torg, 1.17 for Karlshamn. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 1

~~Both scored~~0 of 1

~~Last meetings~~KAR 2–0 LIL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Division 2 - Södra Götaland this season · since 5 Sept

LILLA TORG

WDDDLD3–1 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 3–3 · 2–3 · 1–1

KARLSHAMN

LLLLWL0–6 · 1–2 · 1–4 · 1–4 · 2–0 · 0–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Karlskrona	25	+41	60
2	IFK Trelleborg	25	+29	53
3	Oskarshamns AIK	25	+28	45
4	Berga	25	+18	43
5	Nosaby	25	+7	42
6	Linero	25	+6	41
7	Växjö Norra	25	−4	35
8	Österlen	25	+1	33
9	Staffanstorp United	25	−2	29
10	Lilla Torg	25	−8	29
11	Sölvesborg	25	−11	29
12	Torns	25	−40	21
13	Räppe	25	−29	18
14	Karlshamn	25	−36	14