Karlshamn v Staffanstorp United prediction · Division 2

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 15:46

Karlshamn 0–2 Staffanstorp United STAFFANSTORP UNITED WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Staffanstorp United win~~47%

~~The market said~~40%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.421

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.551

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 12 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Staffanstorp United win at 47%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Staffanstorp United 47% before kick-off, 48% now. 0–0 · 30–22–48
1′KICK-OFF Karlshamn v Staffanstorp United
3′Little has changed for our model: Staffanstorp United 47% before kick-off, 47% now. 0–0 · 30–23–47
9′⚽ GOAL · 8' Karlshamn 0–1 Staffanstorp United
12′⚽ GOAL · 8' Karlshamn 0–1 Staffanstorp United · C. Svensson
23′C. Svensson scores for Staffanstorp United on 8′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 11–18–71
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 23' Staffanstorp United win: 47% at kick-off, 71% now
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 23' Staffanstorp United win: 47% at kick-off, 47% now
24′C. Svensson scores for Staffanstorp United on 8′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 11–18–71
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 24' Staffanstorp United win: 47% at kick-off, 71% now
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 24' Staffanstorp United win: 47% at kick-off, 47% now
44′We said Staffanstorp United at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 73%. 0–1 · 8–19–73
45′We said Staffanstorp United at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 73%. 0–1 · 8–19–73
45′HALF-TIME Karlshamn 0–1 Staffanstorp United
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Staffanstorp United win: 47% at kick-off, 73% now
46′SECOND HALF Karlshamn 0–1 Staffanstorp United
61′⚽ GOAL · 61' Karlshamn 0–2 Staffanstorp United
FTFULL TIME Karlshamn 0–2 Staffanstorp United
FTKarlshamn 0–2 Staffanstorp United · Staffanstorp United win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Karlshamn win30%

Draw23%

Staffanstorp United win47%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 13:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Karlshamn

Staffanstorp United

8Days since last match9

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	Staffanstorp United	24	−4	26
14	Karlshamn	24	−34	14

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · staffanstorp united winPublished 11 Oct 13:14

47% The market40%

Us47%

~~Market~~40%

We make Staffanstorp United a 47% chance to win. The market has them at 40%. We are 7 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.9.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · staffanstorp united win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 40% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Karlshamn win	30%	36%	−6
Draw	23%	25%	−2
Staffanstorp United win	47%	40%	+7
Over 2.5 goals	65%	–	–
Both teams to score	65%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	85%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	44%	–	–
Karlshamn or draw	53%	60%	−7
Karlshamn clean sheet	16%	–	–
Staffanstorp United clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 1 bookmaker, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.9%

0123450 4.0 6.2 6.2 3.9 1 4.8 9.9 8.8 5.6 2.7 2 3.8 6.9 6.5 4.1 3 3.5 3.2 2.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Karlshamn down, Staffanstorp United across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,111 Division 2 - Södra Götaland matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Division 2 - Södra Götaland matches have gone over 2.5 in 67.8% of games this season, across 171 played.

Head to head

1 previous meetings, 3.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Karlshamn at home: 1.33 scored, 2.67 conceded a game (last 6). Staffanstorp United away: 1.17 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.48 goals for Karlshamn, 1.90 for Staffanstorp United. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~STA 1–2 KAR

Form · last six in Division 2 - Södra Götaland

KARLSHAMN

WLLLLW3–1 · 0–6 · 1–2 · 1–4 · 1–4 · 2–0

STAFFANSTORP UNITED

LLWDLW1–2 · 0–2 · 2–0 · 2–2 · 0–3 · 4–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Karlskrona	24	+42	60
2	IFK Trelleborg	24	+28	50
3	Oskarshamns AIK	24	+30	45
4	Nosaby	25	+7	42
5	Linero	25	+6	41
6	Berga	24	+16	40
7	Växjö Norra	25	−4	35
8	Österlen	24	−4	30
9	Lilla Torg	25	−8	29
10	Sölvesborg	25	−11	29
11	Staffanstorp United	24	−4	26
12	Torns	24	−35	21
13	Räppe	25	−29	18
14	Karlshamn	24	−34	14