IFK Trelleborg v Karlskrona prediction · Division 2 - Södra Götaland

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 16:56

IFK Trelleborg 2–1 Karlskrona KARLSKRONA WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Karlskrona win~~40%

~~The market said~~39%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.625

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.625

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 8 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Karlskrona win at 40%.
1′Much as we predicted: Karlskrona was 40% before kick-off and our model makes it 41% now. 0–0 · 36–23–41
1′KICK-OFF IFK Trelleborg v Karlskrona
2′Much as we predicted: Karlskrona was 40% before kick-off and our model makes it 41% now. 0–0 · 36–23–41
24′⚽ GOAL · 24' IFK Trelleborg 0–1 Karlskrona
40′24′ and it is 0–0: Karlskrona have scored. 0–0 · 32–32–36
42′24′ and it is 0–0: Karlskrona have scored. 0–0 · 32–33–35
45′HALF-TIME IFK Trelleborg 0–0 Karlskrona
46′SECOND HALF IFK Trelleborg 0–0 Karlskrona
72′⚽ GOAL · 72' IFK Trelleborg 1–0 Karlskrona
79′⚽ GOAL · 78' IFK Trelleborg 2–0 Karlskrona
90′⚽ GOAL · 91' IFK Trelleborg 2–1 Karlskrona
FTFULL TIME IFK Trelleborg 2–1 Karlskrona
FTIFK Trelleborg 2–1 Karlskrona · Karlskrona win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

IFK Trelleborg win36%

Draw23%

Karlskrona win40%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 14:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

IFK Trelleborg

Karlskrona

7Days since last match7

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Karlskrona	24	+42	60
2	IFK Trelleborg	24	+28	50

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · karlskrona winPublished 11 Oct 14:09

40% The market39%

Us40%

~~Market~~39%

We make Karlskrona a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 39%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.6–1.7.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · karlskrona win The market, margin stripped

Published at 41%, 40% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 39% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
IFK Trelleborg win	36%	36%	0
Draw	23%	25%	−2
Karlskrona win	40%	39%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	65%	61%	+4
Both teams to score	66%	64%	+2
Over 1.5 goals	85%	80%	+5
Over 3.5 goals	43%	41%	+2
IFK Trelleborg or draw	60%	61%	−1
IFK Trelleborg clean sheet	18%	–	–
Karlskrona clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.1%

0123450 4.1 5.7 5.2 3.0 1 5.3 10.1 8.2 4.8 2.1 2 4.6 7.8 6.7 3.9 3 2.5 4.3 3.6 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+IFK Trelleborg down, Karlskrona across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,111 Division 2 - Södra Götaland matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Division 2 - Södra Götaland matches have gone over 2.5 in 67.8% of games this season, across 171 played.

Head to head

7 previous meetings, 2.71 goals a meeting; 3 of 7 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

IFK Trelleborg at home: 2.50 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Karlskrona away: 3.17 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.63 goals for IFK Trelleborg, 1.74 for Karlskrona. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~2.71

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 7

~~Both scored~~5 of 7

~~Last meetings~~KAR 0–0 IFK · IFK 5–2 KAR · KAR 0–0 IFK · IFK 2–1 KAR

Form · last six in Division 2 - Södra Götaland

IFK TRELLEBORG

WLWWWW2–1 · 1–2 · 4–1 · 4–1 · 4–3 · 2–0

KARLSKRONA

WWWWWW4–1 · 2–0 · 2–0 · 2–0 · 4–1 · 2–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Karlskrona	24	+42	60
2	IFK Trelleborg	24	+28	50
3	Oskarshamns AIK	24	+30	45
4	Nosaby	25	+7	42
5	Linero	25	+6	41
6	Berga	24	+16	40
7	Växjö Norra	25	−4	35
8	Österlen	24	−4	30
9	Lilla Torg	25	−8	29
10	Sölvesborg	25	−11	29
11	Staffanstorp United	24	−4	26
12	Torns	24	−35	21
13	Räppe	25	−29	18
14	Karlshamn	24	−34	14