Berga v Linero prediction · Division 2 - Södra Götaland

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 16:04

Berga 0–2 Linero BERGA WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · WRONG2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Berga win~~54%

~~The market said~~47%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.883

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.781

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Berga are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Berga 54%, draw 21%, Linero 26%. Over 2.5 goals 73%, both teams to score 70%.

The AI’s read on Berga v LineroBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Berga win54%

Draw21%

Linero win26%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 13:00

RoundSödra Götaland · matchday 26

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Berga

Linero

6Days since last match8

Last match: 12 Oct · Division 2 - Södra Götaland

Last match: 10 Oct · Division 2 - Södra Götaland

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Berga	25	+18	43
6	Linero	25	+6	41

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · berga winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · updated 13 Oct 05:48 · locked at kick-off

54% The market47%

Us54%

~~Market~~47%

We make Berga a 54% chance to win. The market has them at 47%. We are 7 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.3–1.5.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Berga v Linero~~2.27 – 1.53

~~Form · last six in Division 2 - Södra Götaland this season · since 6 Sept~~W4 D0 L2 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 43 v 41~~4 v 6

~~The market · Berga win~~47% · ours 54%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Berga win The market, margin stripped

Published at 52%, 54% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 47% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Berga win	54%	47%	+7
Draw	21%	24%	−3
Linero win	26%	29%	−3
Over 2.5 goals	73%	65%	+8
Both teams to score	70%	66%	+4
Over 1.5 goals	89%	85%	+4
Over 3.5 goals	52%	45%	+7
Berga or draw	74%	71%	+3
Berga clean sheet	22%	–	–
Linero clean sheet	11%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 2 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 8.6%

0123450 2.8 3.2 2.7 1 4.9 8.1 5.9 3.0 2 5.8 8.6 6.5 3.3 3 4.3 6.4 4.9 2.5 4 2.5 3.7 2.8 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Berga down, Linero across0–5 goals a side shown (96.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,115 Division 2 - Södra Götaland matches up to 12 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Division 2 - Södra Götaland matches have gone over 2.5 in 68.0% of games this season, across 175 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2025 in every competition we cover, 1.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Berga at home: 2.50 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Linero away: 1.50 scored, 3.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.27 goals for Berga, 1.53 for Linero. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~1.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 1

~~Both scored~~0 of 1

~~Last meetings~~LIN 1–0 BER

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Division 2 - Södra Götaland this season · since 6 Sept

BERGA

LWWLWW1–3 · 3–1 · 4–1 · 2–3 · 3–0 · 3–1

LINERO

WLDWLW2–1 · 0–2 · 2–2 · 5–1 · 1–2 · 3–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Karlskrona	25	+41	60
2	IFK Trelleborg	25	+29	53
3	Oskarshamns AIK	25	+28	45
4	Berga	25	+18	43
5	Nosaby	25	+7	42
6	Linero	25	+6	41
7	Växjö Norra	25	−4	35
8	Österlen	25	+1	33
9	Staffanstorp United	25	−2	29
10	Lilla Torg	25	−8	29
11	Sölvesborg	25	−11	29
12	Torns	25	−40	21
13	Räppe	25	−29	18
14	Karlshamn	25	−36	14