Home › Football › Division 2 - Norrland › Umea FF v Fransta

Umea FF v Fransta

Umea FF

3–3Full time

Fransta

Division 2 - Norrland · SAT 10 OCT · Umea Energi Arena SOL

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 20:02

Umea FF 3–3 Fransta UMEA FF WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Umea FF win~~59%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.069

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Umea FF win59%

Draw18%

Fransta win22%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 16:00

Venue · Umea Energi Arena SOL

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · umea ff winPublished 10 Oct 19:30

59% The market–

Us59%

We make Umea FF a 59% chance to win. The model expects 2.6–1.5, and 2–1 is the single most likely score at 8%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Umea FF win	59%	–	–
Draw	18%	–	–
Fransta win	22%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	77%	–	–
Both teams to score	71%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	91%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	58%	–	–
Umea FF or draw	78%	–	–
Umea FF clean sheet	23%	–	–
Fransta clean sheet	8%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 8.2%

0123450 2.1 2.6 2.1 1 4.4 6.8 5.0 2.5 2 5.6 8.2 6.1 3.1 3 4.7 6.9 5.2 2.6 4 3.0 4.4 3.3 5 2.3

under 2% 5% 12%+Umea FF down, Fransta across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,085 Division 2 - Norrland matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Division 2 - Norrland matches have gone over 2.5 in 73.0% of games this season, across 159 played.

Head to head

3 previous meetings, 4.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Umea FF at home: 1.67 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Fransta away: 1.50 scored, 2.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.56 goals for Umea FF, 1.52 for Fransta. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 3

~~Both scored~~3 of 3

~~Last meetings~~FRA 3–2 UME · FRA 1–1 UME · UME 2–3 FRA

Form · last six in Division 2 - Norrland

UMEA FF

WLLLWL4–1 · 2–3 · 0–3 · 2–4 · 3–1 · 0–4

FRANSTA

LWWLWL0–3 · 3–2 · 4–0 · 0–3 · 3–1 · 0–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Kubikenborg	24	+27	50
2	IFK Luleå	24	+22	49
3	Skellefteå	24	+17	45
4	IFK Östersund	24	+18	40
5	Täfteå	24	+14	40
6	Gottne	24	0	34
7	Friska Viljor	21	+10	31
8	Boden	24	−10	31
9	Umeå FC Akademi	21	0	27
10	Lucksta	24	−13	25
11	Fransta	21	−14	24
12	Storfors	21	−14	24
13	Umea FF	21	−6	23
14	IFK Umeå	21	−51	5