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Täfteå v Boden

Täfteå

1–2Full time

Boden

Division 2 - Norrland · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 15:38

Täfteå 1–2 Boden TÄFTEÅ WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Täfteå win~~49%

~~The market said~~57%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.811

~~The market’s Brier score~~1.001

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

Timeline

Match events aren’t available for this match.

Pre-match prediction

Täfteå win49%

Draw22%

Boden win28%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 13:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · täfteå winPublished 10 Oct 15:19

49% The market57%

Us49%

~~Market~~57%

We make Täfteå a 49% chance to win. The market has them at 57%. We are 7 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.9–1.4.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · täfteå win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 57% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Täfteå win	49%	57%	−7
Draw	22%	22%	0
Boden win	28%	21%	+7
Over 2.5 goals	63%	64%	0
Both teams to score	63%	61%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	84%	80%	+4
Over 3.5 goals	42%	44%	−2
Täfteå or draw	72%	79%	−7
Täfteå clean sheet	26%	–	–
Boden clean sheet	16%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 4 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.9%

0123450 4.2 5.1 3.7 1 7.0 9.9 6.7 3.1 2 6.7 9.0 6.2 2.9 3 4.3 5.7 3.9 4 2.1 2.8 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Täfteå down, Boden across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,085 Division 2 - Norrland matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Division 2 - Norrland matches have gone over 2.5 in 73.0% of games this season, across 159 played.

Head to head

9 previous meetings, 3.00 goals a meeting; 5 of 9 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Täfteå at home: 1.67 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Boden away: 1.00 scored, 2.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.92 goals for Täfteå, 1.38 for Boden. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 9

~~Both scored~~5 of 9

~~Last meetings~~BOD 2–1 TAF · TAF 1–1 BOD · BOD 2–3 TAF · BOD 2–1 TAF

Form · last six in Division 2 - Norrland

TÄFTEÅ

LLWWWL1–2 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 0–4

BODEN

LLWLLL1–2 · 1–6 · 1–0 · 0–2 · 0–2 · 2–4

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Kubikenborg	24	+27	50
2	IFK Luleå	24	+22	49
3	Skellefteå	24	+17	45
4	IFK Östersund	24	+18	40
5	Täfteå	24	+14	40
6	Gottne	24	0	34
7	Friska Viljor	21	+10	31
8	Boden	24	−10	31
9	Umeå FC Akademi	21	0	27
10	Lucksta	24	−13	25
11	Fransta	21	−14	24
12	Storfors	21	−14	24
13	Umea FF	21	−6	23
14	IFK Umeå	21	−51	5