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Storfors v Umeå FC Akademi

Storfors

3–2Full time

Umeå FC Akademi

Division 2 - Norrland · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 18:32

Storfors 3–2 Umeå FC Akademi UMEÅ FC AKADEMI WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Umeå FC Akademi win~~42%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.620

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 12 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Umeå FC Akademi win at 42%.
2′Much as we predicted: Umeå FC Akademi was 42% before kick-off and our model makes it 42% now. 0–0 · 37–21–42
2′KICK-OFF Storfors v Umeå FC Akademi
21′⚽ GOAL · 21' Storfors 0–1 Umeå FC Akademi
24′21′ and it is 0–1: Umeå FC Akademi have scored. 0–1 · 16–19–65
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 24' Umeå FC Akademi win: 42% at kick-off, 65% now
45′HALF-TIME Storfors 0–1 Umeå FC Akademi
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Umeå FC Akademi win: 42% at kick-off, 65% now
46′SECOND HALF Storfors 0–1 Umeå FC Akademi
49′⚽ GOAL · 49' Storfors 0–2 Umeå FC Akademi
57′⚽ GOAL · 57' Storfors 1–2 Umeå FC Akademi
66′⚽ GOAL · 66' Storfors 2–2 Umeå FC Akademi
87′🟥 RED CARD · 87' Storfors
89′⚽ GOAL · 89' Storfors 3–2 Umeå FC Akademi
FTFULL TIME Storfors 3–2 Umeå FC Akademi
FTStorfors 3–2 Umeå FC Akademi · Umeå FC Akademi win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Storfors win37%

Draw21%

Umeå FC Akademi win42%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 16:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · umeå fc akademi winPublished 10 Oct 16:17

42% The market–

Us42%

We make Umeå FC Akademi a 42% chance to win. The model expects 1.9–2.0, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 8%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Storfors win	37%	–	–
Draw	21%	–	–
Umeå FC Akademi win	42%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	74%	–	–
Both teams to score	73%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	90%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	55%	–	–
Storfors or draw	58%	–	–
Storfors clean sheet	14%	–	–
Umeå FC Akademi clean sheet	16%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 7.8%

0123450 2.4 4.0 4.2 2.8 1 3.8 7.8 7.5 5.1 2.6 2 3.6 7.0 6.9 4.7 2.4 3 2.3 4.4 4.4 2.9 4 2.2 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Storfors down, Umeå FC Akademi across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,085 Division 2 - Norrland matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Division 2 - Norrland matches have gone over 2.5 in 73.0% of games this season, across 159 played.

Head to head

7 previous meetings, 3.86 goals a meeting; 6 of 7 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Storfors at home: 1.33 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Umeå FC Akademi away: 1.83 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.89 goals for Storfors, 2.03 for Umeå FC Akademi. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~3.86

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 7

~~Both scored~~6 of 7

~~Last meetings~~UME 3–1 STO · STO 3–3 UME · UME 2–1 STO · UME 1–2 STO

Form · last six in Division 2 - Norrland

STORFORS

WLWDLW3–0 · 1–3 · 3–0 · 1–1 · 0–3 · 1–0

UMEÅ FC AKADEMI

WWWWLW5–1 · 3–1 · 5–1 · 4–2 · 1–3 · 6–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Kubikenborg	24	+27	50
2	IFK Luleå	24	+22	49
3	Skellefteå	24	+17	45
4	IFK Östersund	24	+18	40
5	Täfteå	24	+14	40
6	Gottne	24	0	34
7	Friska Viljor	21	+10	31
8	Boden	24	−10	31
9	Umeå FC Akademi	21	0	27
10	Lucksta	24	−13	25
11	Fransta	21	−14	24
12	Storfors	21	−14	24
13	Umea FF	21	−6	23
14	IFK Umeå	21	−51	5