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Model 1.2

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Skellefteå v Kubikenborg

Skellefteå
0–5Full time
Kubikenborg

Division 2 - Norrland · SAT 17 OCT

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 17:28
Skellefteå 0–5 Kubikenborg SKELLEFTEÅ WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Skellefteå win39%
The market said20%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.607
The market’s Brier score0.280

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay15 notes · 13 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Skellefteå win at 39%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Skellefteå was 39% before kick-off and our model makes it 39% now. 0–0 · 39–24–37
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Skellefteå v Kubikenborg
  4. 43′Kubikenborg find the net on 43′. 0–0 · 33–35–32
  5. 43′We said Skellefteå at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 11%. 0–1 · 11–22–67
  6. 43′⚽ GOAL · 43' Skellefteå 0–1 Kubikenborg
  7. 43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' Skellefteå win: 39% at kick-off, 11% now
  8. 43′THE CALL SWINGS · 43' Kubikenborg win is now our likeliest result at 67% (was Skellefteå win 11%)
  9. 45′HALF-TIME Skellefteå 0–1 Kubikenborg
  10. 46′42′: A. Larsson on the scoresheet for Kubikenborg, making it 0–1. 0–1 · 10–22–68
  11. 46′SECOND HALF Skellefteå 0–1 Kubikenborg
  12. 49′42′: A. Larsson on the scoresheet for Kubikenborg, making it 0–1. 0–1 · 10–22–68
  13. 49′We said Skellefteå at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 10%. 0–1 · 10–22–68
  14. 50′We said Skellefteå at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–22–69
  15. 50′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 50' Skellefteå win: 39% at kick-off, 9% now
  16. 55′Kubikenborg find the net on 55′. 0–2. 0–2 · 2–6–92
  17. 55′We said Skellefteå at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 2%. 0–2 · 2–6–92
  18. 55′Goals are coming at about the 3.1 we expected. 0–2 · 2–6–92
  19. 55′⚽ GOAL · 55' Skellefteå 0–2 Kubikenborg
  20. 63′A red card for Skellefteå on 62′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 0–2 · 1–5–94
  21. 63′🟥 RED CARD · 62' Skellefteå
  22. 80′A goal for Kubikenborg on 79′ — 0–3. 0–3 · 0–0–100
  23. 80′⚽ GOAL · 79' Skellefteå 0–3 Kubikenborg
  24. 92′Kubikenborg score on 90′ to make it 0–4. 0–4 · 0–0–100
  25. 92′⚽ GOAL · 90+2' Skellefteå 0–4 Kubikenborg
  26. 93′4 goals already, more than the 3.1 we expected for the whole match. 0–4 · 0–0–100
  27. 94′⚽ GOAL · 90+4' Skellefteå 0–5 Kubikenborg
  28. 95′Kubikenborg ahead on 90′ through A. Nasholm. 0–5. 0–5 · 0–0–100
  29. FTFULL TIME Skellefteå 0–5 Kubikenborg
  30. FTSkellefteå 0–5 Kubikenborg · Skellefteå win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Skellefteå just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Skellefteå 39%, draw 24%, Kubikenborg 37%. Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 61%.

The AI’s read on Skellefteå v KubikenborgBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Skellefteå win39%
Draw24%
Kubikenborg win37%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 14:00

RoundNorrland - Promotion round

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Skellefteå

Kubikenborg

6Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · Division 2 - Norrland

Last match: 10 Oct · Division 2 - Norrland

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · skellefteå winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 12 Oct 04:05 · locked at kick-off
39% The market20%
Us39%
Market20%

We make Skellefteå a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 20%. We are 19 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.5.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Skellefteå v Kubikenborg1.58 – 1.54
Form · last six in Division 2 - Norrland this season · since 12 SeptW1 D0 L5 · W5 D0 L1
Table places · points 27 v 231 v 1
The market · Skellefteå win20% · ours 39%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
15%20%25%30%35%40%45% 11 OCT 04:0617 OCT 13:31
Our probability · Skellefteå win The market, margin stripped

Published at 40%, 39% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 20% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Skellefteå win39%20%+19
Draw24%23%+1
Kubikenborg win37%57%−20
Over 2.5 goals60%61%−1
Both teams to score61%60%+1
Over 1.5 goals81%81%0
Over 3.5 goals38%41%−3
Skellefteå or draw63%43%+20
Skellefteå clean sheet22%––
Kubikenborg clean sheet21%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 2 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.8%
0123450 5.0 6.7 5.3 2.7 1 6.9 10.8 8.0 4.1 2 5.6 8.2 6.2 3.2 3 3.0 4.4 3.3 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Skellefteå down, Kubikenborg across0–5 goals a side shown (98.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2025
Goals a meeting3.00
Over 2.52 of 3
Both scored2 of 3
Last meetingsKUB 1–2 SKE · SKE 0–0 KUB · KUB 1–5 SKE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Division 2 - Norrland this season · since 12 Sept

SKELLEFTEÅ

LLWLLL0–5 · 1–2 · 2–0 · 0–3 · 2–4 · 1–2

KUBIKENBORG

WWWLWW6–1 · 4–2 · 4–1 · 0–1 · 4–0 · 2–0