Add to your Home ScreenGet the appFree · no ads
Pitchside Lab
Model 1.1

Home › Football › Division 2 - Norrland › Lucksta v Skellefteå

Back
Sweden flag

Lucksta v Skellefteå

Lucksta
2–1Full time
Skellefteå

Division 2 - Norrland · SUN 11 OCT

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47
Lucksta 2–1 Skellefteå SKELLEFTEÅ WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · WRONG1–2 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Skellefteå win52%
The market said48%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.836
The market’s Brier score0.806

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

Get the 30-day pass ›

Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Lucksta win28%
Draw21%
Skellefteå win52%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 15:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Lucksta

Skellefteå

8Days since last match8
2Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#TEAMPGDPTS
3Skellefteå24+1745
11Lucksta24−1325

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · skellefteå winPublished 11 Oct 17:22
52% The market48%
Us52%
Market48%

We make Skellefteå a 52% chance to win. The market has them at 48%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–2.2.

How the number movedSince we published
45%50%55% 9 OCT 06:2110 OCT 03:59
Our probability · skellefteå win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 48% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Lucksta win28%28%−1
Draw21%24%−3
Skellefteå win52%48%+3
Over 2.5 goals71%––
Both teams to score69%––
Over 1.5 goals88%––
Over 3.5 goals51%––
Lucksta or draw48%52%−3
Lucksta clean sheet12%––
Skellefteå clean sheet22%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 1 bookmaker, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–2 at 8.6%
0123450 2.8 5.2 5.8 4.2 2.3 1 3.7 8.3 8.6 6.2 3.4 2 3.0 6.2 6.6 4.7 2.6 3 3.2 3.4 2.5 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Lucksta down, Skellefteå across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2024
Goals a meeting3.33
Over 2.52 of 3
Both scored1 of 3
Last meetingsSKE 3–0 LUC · LUC 3–4 SKE · SKE 0–0 LUC

Form · last six in Division 2 - Norrland

LUCKSTA

DWLLLL1–1 · 4–2 · 2–4 · 1–3 · 1–2 · 2–5

SKELLEFTEÅ

DLLWLL2–2 · 0–5 · 1–2 · 2–0 · 0–3 · 2–4

The table

2026
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Kubikenborg25+2953
2IFK Luleå25+2452
3Skellefteå24+1745
4IFK Östersund25+1640
5Täfteå25+1340
6Friska Viljor22+1434
7Gottne25−234
8Boden25−934
9Umeå FC Akademi22−127
10Storfors22−1327
11Lucksta24−1325
12Fransta22−1425
13Umea FF22−624
14IFK Umeå22−555

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.