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IFK Östersund v IFK Luleå

IFK Östersund
2–2Full time
IFK Luleå

Division 2 - Norrland · SAT 17 OCT

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 17:28
IFK Östersund 2–2 IFK Luleå IFK ÖSTERSUND WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said IFK Östersund win48%
The market said47%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.928
The market’s Brier score0.895

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay17 notes · 15 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said IFK Östersund win at 48%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: IFK Östersund 48% before kick-off, 48% now. 0–0 · 48–22–30
  3. 1′KICK-OFF IFK Östersund v IFK Luleå
  4. 29′A goal for IFK Östersund on 28′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 71–18–11
  5. 29′We said IFK Östersund at 48% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 71%. 1–0 · 71–18–11
  6. 29′⚽ GOAL · 28' IFK Östersund 1–0 IFK Luleå
  7. 29′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 29' IFK Östersund win: 48% at kick-off, 71% now
  8. 30′The goal count is tracking the 3.5 we expected. 1–0 · 71–18–11
  9. 38′IFK Luleå score on 37′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 41–30–28
  10. 38′⚽ GOAL · 37' IFK Östersund 1–1 IFK Luleå
  11. 38′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 38' IFK Östersund win: 48% at kick-off, 41% now
  12. 43′IFK Östersund find the net on 42′. 2–1. 2–1 · 72–19–9
  13. 43′⚽ GOAL · 42' IFK Östersund 2–1 IFK Luleå
  14. 43′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 43' IFK Östersund win: 48% at kick-off, 72% now
  15. 45′HALF-TIME IFK Östersund 2–1 IFK Luleå
  16. 46′SECOND HALF IFK Östersund 2–1 IFK Luleå
  17. 50′IFK Östersund ahead on 42′ through H. Loof. 2–1. 2–1 · 73–19–8
  18. 50′We said IFK Östersund at 48% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 73%. 2–1 · 73–19–8
  19. 56′We said IFK Östersund at 48% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 2–1 · 75–19–6
  20. 65′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 65' IFK Östersund win: 48% at kick-off, 78% now
  21. 67′The goal count is tracking the 3.5 we expected. 2–1 · 79–18–4
  22. 69′We said IFK Östersund at 48% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 2–1 · 80–17–3
  23. 77′We said IFK Östersund at 48% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 2–1 · 85–14–2
  24. 81′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 81' IFK Östersund win: 48% at kick-off, 88% now
  25. 83′We said IFK Östersund at 48% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 2–1 · 90–9–1
  26. 89′We said IFK Östersund at 48% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 2–1 · 95–5–0
  27. 91′⚽ GOAL · 90+2' IFK Östersund 2–2 IFK Luleå
  28. 91′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+1' IFK Östersund win: 48% at kick-off, 5% now
  29. 91′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+1' Draw is now our likeliest result at 91% (was IFK Östersund win 5%)
  30. 92′A goal for IFK Luleå on 90′ — 2–2. 2–2 · 4–93–3
  31. 92′We said IFK Östersund at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 2–2 · 4–93–3
  32. 93′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.5 across ninety minutes. 2–2 · 3–94–2
  33. FTFULL TIME IFK Östersund 2–2 IFK Luleå
  34. FTIFK Östersund 2–2 IFK Luleå · IFK Östersund win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

IFK Östersund are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: IFK Östersund 48%, draw 22%, IFK Luleå 30%. Over 2.5 goals 67%, both teams to score 67%.

The AI’s read on IFK Östersund v IFK LuleåBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

IFK Östersund win48%
Draw22%
IFK Luleå win30%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 14:00

RoundNorrland - Promotion round

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

IFK Östersund

IFK Luleå

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · Division 2 - Norrland

Last match: 10 Oct · Division 2 - Norrland

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · ifk östersund winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
48% The market47%
Us48%
Market47%

We make IFK Östersund a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 47%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 2.0–1.5.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · IFK Östersund v IFK Luleå1.98 – 1.54
Form · last six in Division 2 - Norrland this season · since 12 SeptW4 D0 L2 · W5 D0 L1
Table places · points 17 v 254 v 3
The market · IFK Östersund win47% · ours 48%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
45%50% 11 OCT 04:0617 OCT 13:31
Our probability · IFK Östersund win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 47% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
IFK Östersund win48%47%+1
Draw22%23%−1
IFK Luleå win30%30%0
Over 2.5 goals67%66%+1
Both teams to score67%67%0
Over 1.5 goals86%––
Over 3.5 goals46%46%0
IFK Östersund or draw70%70%0
IFK Östersund clean sheet22%––
IFK Luleå clean sheet15%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 2 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.2%
0123450 3.5 4.6 3.6 1 5.8 9.2 6.8 3.5 2 5.8 8.7 6.6 3.4 3 3.8 5.7 4.3 2.2 4 2.9 2.2 5
under 2% 5% 12%+IFK Östersund down, IFK Luleå across0–5 goals a side shown (97.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2021
Goals a meeting3.78
Over 2.56 of 9
Both scored7 of 9
Last meetingsLUL 4–3 OST · LUL 3–4 OST · OST 2–1 LUL · LUL 1–1 OST

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Division 2 - Norrland this season · since 12 Sept

IFK ÖSTERSUND

WWLWWL5–0 · 4–0 · 1–2 · 2–0 · 5–2 · 0–2

IFK LULEÅ

WLWWWW2–1 · 0–1 · 3–1 · 1–0 · 4–2 · 3–1