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Friska Viljor v IFK Umeå

Friska Viljor

5–1Full time

IFK Umeå

Division 2 - Norrland · SAT 10 OCT · Skyttis IP

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 18:32

Friska Viljor 5–1 IFK Umeå FRISKA VILJOR WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT3–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Friska Viljor win~~85%

~~The market said~~82%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.036

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.049

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay1 note · 11 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Friska Viljor win at 85%.
2′Little has changed for our model: Friska Viljor 85% before kick-off, 85% now. 0–0 · 85–9–6
2′KICK-OFF Friska Viljor v IFK Umeå
29′⚽ GOAL · 28' Friska Viljor 1–0 IFK Umeå
30′⚽ GOAL · 30' Friska Viljor 1–0 IFK Umeå
45′HALF-TIME Friska Viljor 1–0 IFK Umeå
46′SECOND HALF Friska Viljor 1–0 IFK Umeå
61′⚽ GOAL · 61' Friska Viljor 2–0 IFK Umeå
64′⚽ GOAL · 64' Friska Viljor 2–1 IFK Umeå
75′⚽ GOAL · 75' Friska Viljor 3–1 IFK Umeå
83′⚽ GOAL · 83' Friska Viljor 4–1 IFK Umeå
90′⚽ GOAL · 90' Friska Viljor 5–1 IFK Umeå
FTFULL TIME Friska Viljor 5–1 IFK Umeå
FTFriska Viljor 5–1 IFK Umeå · Friska Viljor win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 3–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Friska Viljor win85%

Draw9%

IFK Umeå win6%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 16:00

Venue · Skyttis IP

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · friska viljor winPublished 10 Oct 16:17

85% The market82%

Us85%

~~Market~~82%

We make Friska Viljor a 85% chance to win. The market has them at 82%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 3.8–1.0.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · friska viljor win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 82% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Friska Viljor win	85%	82%	+3
Draw	9%	11%	−2
IFK Umeå win	6%	7%	0
Over 2.5 goals	85%	–	–
Both teams to score	62%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	95%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	70%	–	–
Friska Viljor or draw	94%	93%	0
Friska Viljor clean sheet	37%	–	–
IFK Umeå clean sheet	3%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 1 bookmaker, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 3–0 at 7.2%

0123450 1 3.3 3.4 2 6.0 6.0 3.1 3 7.2 7.2 3.7 4 6.8 6.7 3.4 5 5.2 5.1 2.6

under 2% 5% 12%+Friska Viljor down, IFK Umeå across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,085 Division 2 - Norrland matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Division 2 - Norrland matches have gone over 2.5 in 73.0% of games this season, across 159 played.

Head to head

1 previous meetings, 5.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Friska Viljor at home: 1.83 scored, 2.33 conceded a game (last 6). IFK Umeå away: 0.67 scored, 3.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

3.78 goals for Friska Viljor, 1.02 for IFK Umeå. Most likely score 3–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~5.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~IFK 2–3 FRI

Form · last six in Division 2 - Norrland

FRISKA VILJOR

LWLWWW1–4 · 3–2 · 1–5 · 3–0 · 3–0 · 4–0

IFK UMEÅ

LLLDLL1–5 · 2–3 · 0–4 · 1–1 · 1–3 · 0–6

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Kubikenborg	24	+27	50
2	IFK Luleå	24	+22	49
3	Skellefteå	24	+17	45
4	IFK Östersund	24	+18	40
5	Täfteå	24	+14	40
6	Gottne	24	0	34
7	Friska Viljor	21	+10	31
8	Boden	24	−10	31
9	Umeå FC Akademi	21	0	27
10	Lucksta	24	−13	25
11	Fransta	21	−14	24
12	Storfors	21	−14	24
13	Umea FF	21	−6	23
14	IFK Umeå	21	−51	5