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Model 1.2

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Boden v Lucksta

Boden
2–5Full time
Lucksta

Division 2 - Norrland · SAT 17 OCT

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 17:28
Boden 2–5 Lucksta BODEN WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Boden win50%
The market said40%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.800
The market’s Brier score0.632

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay21 notes · 17 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Boden win at 50%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Boden 50% before kick-off, 50% now. 0–0 · 50–22–29
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Boden v Lucksta
  4. 41′Lucksta score on 40′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 18–24–58
  5. 41′We said Boden at 50%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 18%. 0–1 · 18–24–58
  6. 41′⚽ GOAL · 40' Boden 0–1 Lucksta
  7. 41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Boden win: 50% at kick-off, 18% now
  8. 41′THE CALL SWINGS · 41' Lucksta win is now our likeliest result at 58% (was Boden win 18%)
  9. 45′HALF-TIME Boden 0–1 Lucksta
  10. 46′SECOND HALF Boden 0–1 Lucksta
  11. 49′40′: G. Buzuku on the scoresheet for Lucksta, making it 0–1. 0–1 · 15–25–61
  12. 49′We said Boden at 50%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 15%. 0–1 · 15–25–61
  13. 50′Boden find the net on 49′. 1–1. 1–1 · 39–35–26
  14. 50′Little has changed for our model: Boden 50% before kick-off, 39% now. 1–1 · 39–35–26
  15. 50′⚽ GOAL · 49' Boden 1–1 Lucksta
  16. 50′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 50' Boden win: 50% at kick-off, 39% now
  17. 51′The goal count is tracking the 3.6 we expected. 1–1 · 39–36–25
  18. 52′We said Boden at 50%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 38%. 1–1 · 38–36–25
  19. 58′A goal for Lucksta on 58′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 11–25–64
  20. 58′We said Boden at 50%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 11%. 1–2 · 11–25–64
  21. 58′⚽ GOAL · 58' Boden 1–2 Lucksta
  22. 58′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 58' Boden win: 50% at kick-off, 11% now
  23. 60′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 60' Boden win: 50% at kick-off, 10% now
  24. 62′We said Boden at 50%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–2 · 9–24–67
  25. 65′Lucksta score on 65′ to make it 1–3. 1–3 · 1–7–92
  26. 65′⚽ GOAL · 65' Boden 1–3 Lucksta
  27. 66′We said Boden at 50%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 1%. 1–3 · 1–6–92
  28. 67′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.6 across ninety minutes. 1–3 · 1–6–93
  29. 75′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 75' Boden win: 50% at kick-off, under 1% now
  30. 78′Boden find the net on 78′. 2–3. 2–3 · 3–17–80
  31. 78′⚽ GOAL · 78' Boden 2–3 Lucksta
  32. 79′A goal for Lucksta on 78′ — 2–4. 2–4 · 0–2–98
  33. 79′That is 6, and we only asked for 3.6 across ninety minutes. 2–4 · 0–2–98
  34. 79′⚽ GOAL · 78' Boden 2–4 Lucksta
  35. 84′Lucksta score on 84′ to make it 2–5. 2–5 · 0–0–100
  36. 84′7 goals already, more than the 3.6 we expected for the whole match. 2–5 · 0–0–100
  37. 84′⚽ GOAL · 84' Boden 2–5 Lucksta
  38. 85′83′: T. Molin on the scoresheet for Lucksta, making it 2–5. 2–5 · 0–0–100
  39. FTFULL TIME Boden 2–5 Lucksta
  40. FTBoden 2–5 Lucksta · Boden win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Boden are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Boden 50%, draw 22%, Lucksta 29%. Over 2.5 goals 68%, both teams to score 67%.

The AI’s read on Boden v LuckstaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Boden win50%
Draw22%
Lucksta win29%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 14:00

RoundNorrland - Promotion round

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Boden

Lucksta

7Days since last match6

Last match: 10 Oct · Division 2 - Norrland

Last match: 11 Oct · Division 2 - Norrland

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · boden winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 12 Oct 04:05 · locked at kick-off
50% The market40%
Us50%
Market40%

We make Boden a 50% chance to win. The market has them at 40%. We are 10 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.0–1.5.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Boden v Lucksta2.04 – 1.51
Form · last six in Division 2 - Norrland this season · since 12 SeptW2 D0 L4 · W2 D0 L4
Table places · points 17 v 184 v 3
The market · Boden win40% · ours 50%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
35%40%45%50%55% 11 OCT 04:0617 OCT 13:31
Our probability · Boden win The market, margin stripped

Published at 51%, 50% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 40% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Boden win50%40%+10
Draw22%24%−2
Lucksta win29%36%−7
Over 2.5 goals68%64%+4
Both teams to score67%65%+2
Over 1.5 goals87%––
Over 3.5 goals47%44%+3
Boden or draw71%64%+7
Boden clean sheet23%––
Lucksta clean sheet14%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 2 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.0%
0123450 3.3 4.3 3.4 1 5.8 9.0 6.5 3.3 2 6.0 8.7 6.5 3.3 3 4.1 5.9 4.4 2.3 4 2.1 3.1 2.3 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Boden down, Lucksta across0–5 goals a side shown (97.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2024
Goals a meeting3.60
Over 2.55 of 5
Both scored4 of 5
Last meetingsLUC 3–0 BOD · LUC 1–3 BOD · BOD 1–2 LUC · BOD 3–1 LUC

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Division 2 - Norrland this season · since 12 Sept

BODEN

LWLLLW1–6 · 1–0 · 0–2 · 0–2 · 2–4 · 2–1

LUCKSTA

WLLLLW4–2 · 2–4 · 1–3 · 1–2 · 2–5 · 2–1