Viggbyholms IK v Bollstanäs prediction · Division 2

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 14:49

Viggbyholms IK 2–1 Bollstanäs BOLLSTANÄS WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Bollstanäs win~~43%

~~The market said~~29%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.662

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.428

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Bollstanäs are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Viggbyholms IK 35%, draw 23%, Bollstanäs 43%. Over 2.5 goals 68%, both teams to score 68%.

The AI’s read on Viggbyholms IK v BollstanäsBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Viggbyholms IK win35%

Draw23%

Bollstanäs win43%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 11:30

RoundNorra Svealand · matchday 26

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Viggbyholms IK

Bollstanäs

6Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · Division 2 - Norra Svealand

Last match: 10 Oct · Division 2 - Norra Svealand

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Bollstanäs	25	−3	31
12	Viggbyholms IK	25	−24	22

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · bollstanäs winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 12 Oct 00:12 · locked at kick-off

43% The market29%

Us43%

~~Market~~29%

We make Bollstanäs a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 29%. We are 14 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Viggbyholms IK v Bollstanäs~~1.66 – 1.87

~~Form · last six in Division 2 - Norra Svealand this season · since 6 Sept~~W2 D0 L4 · W1 D0 L5

~~Table places · points 22 v 31~~12 v 9

~~The market · Bollstanäs win~~29% · ours 43%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Bollstanäs win The market, margin stripped

Published at 46%, 43% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 29% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Viggbyholms IK win	35%	47%	−12
Draw	23%	25%	−2
Bollstanäs win	43%	29%	+14
Over 2.5 goals	68%	66%	+2
Both teams to score	68%	66%	+2
Over 1.5 goals	86%	83%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	47%	46%	+1
Viggbyholms IK or draw	57%	71%	−14
Viggbyholms IK clean sheet	16%	–	–
Bollstanäs clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 4 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.4%

0123450 3.6 5.3 5.2 3.2 1 4.7 9.4 8.2 5.1 2.4 2 4.1 7.3 6.7 4.1 3 2.3 4.1 3.7 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Viggbyholms IK down, Bollstanäs across0–5 goals a side shown (97.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,091 Division 2 - Norra Svealand matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Division 2 - Norra Svealand matches have gone over 2.5 in 65.1% of games this season, across 175 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2025 in every competition we cover, 2.67 goals a meeting; 2 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Viggbyholms IK at home: 1.33 scored, 2.17 conceded a game (last 6). Bollstanäs away: 2.33 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.66 goals for Viggbyholms IK, 1.87 for Bollstanäs. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~2.67

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 3

~~Both scored~~2 of 3

~~Last meetings~~BOL 0–0 VIG · VIG 2–2 BOL · BOL 3–1 VIG

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Division 2 - Norra Svealand this season · since 6 Sept

VIGGBYHOLMS IK

LLWLLW0–2 · 0–3 · 4–2 · 2–4 · 0–3 · 2–0

BOLLSTANÄS

LLLLWL0–5 · 0–2 · 0–4 · 1–3 · 4–0 · 2–3

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Skiljebo	25	+30	56
2	Sunnersta	25	+43	53
3	Enskede	25	+18	52
4	Angby	25	+29	51
5	Falu BS	25	+10	44
6	Täby	25	+16	41
7	Franke	25	+2	34
8	Gute	25	0	32
9	Bollstanäs	25	−3	31
10	Kungsängen	25	−9	25
11	Lidingö	25	−25	23
12	Viggbyholms IK	25	−24	22
13	Korsnäs	25	−38	14
14	Helges	25	−49	10