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Täby v Lidingö

Täby

2–3Full time

Lidingö

Division 2 - Norra Svealand · SAT 10 OCT · Tibblevallen

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 17:33

Täby 2–3 Lidingö TÄBY WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Täby win~~70%

~~The market said~~62%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.294

~~The market’s Brier score~~1.084

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 10 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Täby win at 70%.
17′Lidingö find the net on 17′. 0–1. 0–1 · 43–25–32
20′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 20' Täby win: 70% at kick-off, 43% now
39′We said Täby at 70%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 31%. 0–1 · 31–29–40
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' Täby win: 70% at kick-off, 31% now
39′THE CALL SWINGS · 39' Lidingö win is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Täby win 31%)
42′⚽ GOAL · 41' Täby 1–1 Lidingö
45′HALF-TIME Täby 1–1 Lidingö
47′SECOND HALF Täby 1–1 Lidingö
70′⚽ GOAL · 70' Täby 2–1 Lidingö
84′⚽ GOAL · 84' Täby 2–2 Lidingö
90′⚽ GOAL · 90' Täby 2–3 Lidingö
FTFULL TIME Täby 2–3 Lidingö
FTTäby 2–3 Lidingö · Täby win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Täby win70%

Draw17%

Lidingö win12%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 15:00

Venue · Tibblevallen

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · täby winPublished 10 Oct 15:19

70% The market62%

Us70%

~~Market~~62%

We make Täby a 70% chance to win. The market has them at 62%. We are 9 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.6–0.9.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · täby win The market, margin stripped

Published at 71%, 70% now. The market has gone from 61% to 62% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Täby win	70%	62%	+9
Draw	17%	20%	−3
Lidingö win	12%	19%	−6
Over 2.5 goals	67%	67%	0
Both teams to score	55%	61%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	86%	83%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	46%	48%	−2
Täby or draw	88%	81%	+6
Täby clean sheet	40%	–	–
Lidingö clean sheet	9%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 9.7%

0123450 3.8 2.8 1 7.6 7.7 3.6 2 9.7 8.9 4.3 3 8.1 7.3 3.5 4 5.2 4.7 2.2 5 2.8 2.5

under 2% 5% 12%+Täby down, Lidingö across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,084 Division 2 - Norra Svealand matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Division 2 - Norra Svealand matches have gone over 2.5 in 64.9% of games this season, across 168 played.

Head to head

1 previous meetings, 4.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Täby at home: 2.83 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Lidingö away: 1.00 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.55 goals for Täby, 0.95 for Lidingö. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~LID 1–3 TAB

Form · last six in Division 2 - Norra Svealand

TÄBY

WDDWLW2–1 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 3–0

LIDINGÖ

LLWWLL0–4 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 3–0 · 0–6 · 0–4

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Skiljebo	24	+31	56
2	Angby	24	+31	51
3	Sunnersta	24	+37	50
4	Enskede	24	+17	49
5	Täby	24	+17	41
6	Falu BS	24	+7	41
7	Gute	24	+3	32
8	Franke	24	−1	31
9	Bollstanäs	24	−2	31
10	Kungsängen	24	−10	22
11	Lidingö	24	−26	20
12	Viggbyholms IK	24	−26	19
13	Korsnäs	24	−32	14
14	Helges	24	−46	10