Skiljebo v Angby prediction · Division 2 - Norra Svealand

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 14:49

Skiljebo 4–0 Angby ANGBY WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Angby win~~39%

~~The market said~~27%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.585

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.374

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 12 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Angby win at 39%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Angby 39% before kick-off, 39% now. 0–0 · 38–23–39
1′KICK-OFF Skiljebo v Angby
45′SECOND HALF Skiljebo 0–0 Angby
48′HALF-TIME Skiljebo 0–0 Angby
52′THE CALL SWINGS · 52' Draw is now our likeliest result at 37% (was Angby win 32%)
55′Goalless on 55′ when we expected about 3.5 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 30–39–31
59′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 59' Angby win: 39% at kick-off, 29% now
64′We said Angby at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 27%. 0–0 · 27–46–27
67′We said Angby at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 5%. 1–0 · 75–20–5
67′⚽ GOAL · 67' Skiljebo 1–0 Angby
67′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 67' Angby win: 39% at kick-off, 5% now
67′THE CALL SWINGS · 67' Skiljebo win is now our likeliest result at 75% (was Draw 20%)
68′Skiljebo find the net on 68′. 1–0. 1–0 · 75–20–5
70′We said Angby at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 1%. 2–0 · 96–4–1
70′⚽ GOAL · 70' Skiljebo 2–0 Angby
71′A goal for Skiljebo on 71′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 96–4–1
80′The goal count is tracking the 3.5 we expected. 3–0 · 100–0–0
80′⚽ GOAL · 80' Skiljebo 3–0 Angby
81′Skiljebo score on 81′ to make it 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
88′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.5 across ninety minutes. 4–0 · 100–0–0
88′Skiljebo find the net on 88′. 4–0. 4–0 · 100–0–0
88′⚽ GOAL · 88' Skiljebo 4–0 Angby
93′4–0 at the end. Our 39% on Angby misses, and the record keeps it. 4–0 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Skiljebo 4–0 Angby
FTSkiljebo 4–0 Angby · Angby win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Angby just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Skiljebo 38%, draw 23%, Angby 39%. Over 2.5 goals 68%, both teams to score 68%.

The AI’s read on Skiljebo v AngbyBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Skiljebo win38%

Draw23%

Angby win39%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 11:30

RoundNorra Svealand · matchday 26

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Skiljebo

Angby

7Days since last match6

Last match: 10 Oct · Division 2 - Norra Svealand

Last match: 11 Oct · Division 2 - Norra Svealand

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · angby winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 12 Oct 00:12 · locked at kick-off

39% The market27%

Us39%

~~Market~~27%

We make Angby a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 27%. We are 12 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.8–1.8.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Skiljebo v Angby~~1.76 – 1.78

~~Form · last six in Division 2 - Norra Svealand this season · since 5 Sept~~W5 D0 L1 · W4 D0 L2

~~Table places · points 56 v 51~~1 v 4

~~The market · Angby win~~27% · ours 39%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Angby win The market, margin stripped

Published at 42%, 39% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 27% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Skiljebo win	38%	50%	−12
Draw	23%	23%	0
Angby win	39%	27%	+12
Over 2.5 goals	68%	66%	+2
Both teams to score	68%	66%	+2
Over 1.5 goals	86%	83%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	47%	46%	+1
Skiljebo or draw	61%	73%	−12
Skiljebo clean sheet	18%	–	–
Angby clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.4%

0123450 3.6 5.0 4.7 2.8 1 4.9 9.4 7.8 4.7 2.1 2 4.6 7.7 6.7 4.0 3 2.7 4.5 3.9 2.3 4 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Skiljebo down, Angby across0–5 goals a side shown (97.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,091 Division 2 - Norra Svealand matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Division 2 - Norra Svealand matches have gone over 2.5 in 65.1% of games this season, across 175 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2026 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Skiljebo at home: 2.33 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Angby away: 3.00 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.76 goals for Skiljebo, 1.78 for Angby. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~ANG 2–1 SKI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Division 2 - Norra Svealand this season · since 5 Sept

SKILJEBO

WWWWWL2–1 · 2–1 · 4–0 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 0–1

ANGBY

WWLWWL5–0 · 5–1 · 1–2 · 3–2 · 9–0 · 0–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Skiljebo	25	+30	56
2	Sunnersta	25	+43	53
3	Enskede	25	+18	52
4	Angby	25	+29	51
5	Falu BS	25	+10	44
6	Täby	25	+16	41
7	Franke	25	+2	34
8	Gute	25	0	32
9	Bollstanäs	25	−3	31
10	Kungsängen	25	−9	25
11	Lidingö	25	−25	23
12	Viggbyholms IK	25	−24	22
13	Korsnäs	25	−38	14
14	Helges	25	−49	10