Lidingö v Franke prediction · Division 2 - Norra Svealand

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 14:49

Lidingö 0–2 Franke FRANKE WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Franke win~~51%

~~The market said~~18%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.370

~~The market’s Brier score~~1.086

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 9 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Franke win at 51%.
1′Much as we predicted: Franke was 51% before kick-off and our model makes it 50% now. 0–0 · 28–21–50
1′KICK-OFF Lidingö v Franke
13′Franke score on 13′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 13–16–72
13′We published Franke at 51%. Our model now makes it 72%. 0–1 · 13–16–72
13′⚽ GOAL · 13' Lidingö 0–1 Franke
13′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 13' Franke win: 51% at kick-off, 72% now
17′Franke find the net on 17′. 0–2. 0–2 · 4–8–88
17′⚽ GOAL · 17' Lidingö 0–2 Franke
17′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 17' Franke win: 51% at kick-off, 88% now
18′We published Franke at 51%. Our model now makes it 88%. 0–2 · 4–8–88
32′We published Franke at 51%. Our model now makes it 90%. 0–2 · 3–7–90
39′Goals are coming at about the 3.7 we expected. 0–2 · 2–7–91
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 39' Franke win: 51% at kick-off, 91% now
45′Franke ahead on 18′ through G. Djotodia. 0–2. 0–2 · 2–6–92
45′HALF-TIME Lidingö 0–2 Franke
46′SECOND HALF Lidingö 0–2 Franke
60′We published Franke at 51%. Our model now makes it 95%. 0–2 · 1–5–95
84′We published Franke at 51%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 0–2 · 0–0–100
FTFULL TIME Lidingö 0–2 Franke
FTLidingö 0–2 Franke · Franke win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Franke are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Lidingö 28%, draw 21%, Franke 51%. Over 2.5 goals 71%, both teams to score 69%.

The AI’s read on Lidingö v FrankeBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Lidingö win28%

Draw21%

Franke win51%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 11:30

RoundNorra Svealand · matchday 26

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Lidingö

Franke

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · Division 2 - Norra Svealand

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Franke	25	+2	34
11	Lidingö	25	−25	23

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · franke winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

51% The market18%

Us51%

~~Market~~18%

We make Franke a 51% chance to win. The market has them at 18%. We are 33 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–2.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Lidingö v Franke~~1.57 – 2.15

~~Form · last six in Division 2 - Norra Svealand this season · since 5 Sept~~W3 D0 L3 · W4 D0 L2

~~Table places · points 23 v 34~~11 v 7

~~The market · Franke win~~18% · ours 51%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Franke win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 18% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Lidingö win	28%	62%	−34
Draw	21%	20%	+1
Franke win	51%	18%	+33
Over 2.5 goals	71%	69%	+2
Both teams to score	69%	64%	+5
Over 1.5 goals	88%	86%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	50%	50%	0
Lidingö or draw	49%	82%	−33
Lidingö clean sheet	13%	–	–
Franke clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 8.5%

0123450 3.1 5.1 5.7 4.0 2.2 1 3.7 8.5 8.4 6.0 3.3 2 3.1 6.3 6.5 4.6 2.5 3 3.3 3.4 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Lidingö down, Franke across0–5 goals a side shown (96.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,091 Division 2 - Norra Svealand matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Division 2 - Norra Svealand matches have gone over 2.5 in 65.1% of games this season, across 175 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2023 in every competition we cover, 4.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Lidingö at home: 1.00 scored, 2.67 conceded a game (last 6). Franke away: 1.50 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.57 goals for Lidingö, 2.15 for Franke. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~FRA 3–1 LID

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Division 2 - Norra Svealand this season · since 5 Sept

LIDINGÖ

LWWLLW1–2 · 2–1 · 3–0 · 0–6 · 0–4 · 3–2

FRANKE

WLLWWW1–0 · 1–5 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 3–1 · 5–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Skiljebo	25	+30	56
2	Sunnersta	25	+43	53
3	Enskede	25	+18	52
4	Angby	25	+29	51
5	Falu BS	25	+10	44
6	Täby	25	+16	41
7	Franke	25	+2	34
8	Gute	25	0	32
9	Bollstanäs	25	−3	31
10	Kungsängen	25	−9	25
11	Lidingö	25	−25	23
12	Viggbyholms IK	25	−24	22
13	Korsnäs	25	−38	14
14	Helges	25	−49	10