Kungsängen v Täby prediction · Division 2 - Norra Svealand

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 14:49

Kungsängen 2–2 Täby TÄBY WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Täby win~~44%

~~The market said~~41%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.835

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.838

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay15 notes · 18 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Täby win at 44%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Täby 44% before kick-off, 44% now. 0–0 · 30–26–44
1′KICK-OFF Kungsängen v Täby
45′HALF-TIME Kungsängen 0–0 Täby
46′SECOND HALF Kungsängen 0–0 Täby
47′THE CALL SWINGS · 47' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Täby win 35%)
48′A goal for Täby on 48′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 6–19–75
48′We said Täby at 44% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 0–1 · 6–19–75
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 48' Täby win: 44% at kick-off, 34% now
48′⚽ GOAL · 48' Kungsängen 0–1 Täby
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 48' Täby win: 44% at kick-off, 75% now
48′THE CALL SWINGS · 48' Täby win is now our likeliest result at 75% (was Draw 19%)
59′Kungsängen score on 58′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 22–48–30
59′We said Täby at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 30%. 1–1 · 22–48–30
59′The goal count is tracking the 2.8 we expected. 1–1 · 22–48–30
59′⚽ GOAL · 58' Kungsängen 1–1 Täby
59′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 59' Täby win: 44% at kick-off, 30% now
59′THE CALL SWINGS · 59' Draw is now our likeliest result at 48% (was Täby win 30%)
60′We said Täby at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 22–49–29
69′We said Täby at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 18–58–24
69′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 69' Täby win: 44% at kick-off, 24% now
75′We said Täby at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 15–66–19
76′Kungsängen find the net on 76′. 2–1. 2–1 · 82–16–2
76′⚽ GOAL · 76' Kungsängen 2–1 Täby
76′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 76' Täby win: 44% at kick-off, 2% now
76′THE CALL SWINGS · 76' Kungsängen win is now our likeliest result at 82% (was Draw 16%)
77′We said Täby at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 2%. 2–1 · 83–15–2
77′3 goals already, more than the 2.8 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 83–15–2
89′A goal for Täby on 89′ — 2–2. 2–2 · 4–90–6
89′⚽ GOAL · 89' Kungsängen 2–2 Täby
89′THE CALL SWINGS · 89' Draw is now our likeliest result at 90% (was Kungsängen win 4%)
90′We said Täby at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 5%. 2–2 · 4–91–5
90′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.8 across ninety minutes. 2–2 · 4–91–5
FTFULL TIME Kungsängen 2–2 Täby
FTKungsängen 2–2 Täby · Täby win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Täby are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Kungsängen 30%, draw 26%, Täby 44%. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 55%.

The AI’s read on Kungsängen v TäbyBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Kungsängen win30%

Draw26%

Täby win44%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 11:30

RoundNorra Svealand · matchday 26

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Kungsängen

Täby

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · Division 2 - Norra Svealand

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Täby	25	+16	41
10	Kungsängen	25	−9	25

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · täby winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

44% The market41%

Us44%

~~Market~~41%

We make Täby a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 41%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.6.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Kungsängen v Täby~~1.24 – 1.55

~~Form · last six in Division 2 - Norra Svealand this season · since 5 Sept~~W4 D0 L2 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 25 v 41~~10 v 6

~~The market · Täby win~~41% · ours 44%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Täby win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 41% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Kungsängen win	30%	33%	−3
Draw	26%	25%	+1
Täby win	44%	41%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	52%	64%	−12
Both teams to score	55%	66%	−11
Over 1.5 goals	77%	82%	−5
Over 3.5 goals	31%	44%	−13
Kungsängen or draw	56%	59%	−3
Kungsängen clean sheet	22%	–	–
Täby clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.0%

0123450 7.1 9.2 7.4 3.9 1 7.2 12.0 8.8 4.6 2 4.7 7.1 5.4 2.8 3 3.0 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Kungsängen down, Täby across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,091 Division 2 - Norra Svealand matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Division 2 - Norra Svealand matches have gone over 2.5 in 65.1% of games this season, across 175 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 2.33 goals a meeting; 1 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Kungsängen at home: 1.33 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Täby away: 0.83 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.24 goals for Kungsängen, 1.55 for Täby. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.33

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 3

~~Both scored~~0 of 3

~~Last meetings~~TAB 3–0 KUN · KUN 2–0 TAB · TAB 2–0 KUN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Division 2 - Norra Svealand this season · since 5 Sept

KUNGSÄNGEN

WLWLWW2–0 · 0–1 · 3–1 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 3–2

TÄBY

DDWLWL1–1 · 2–2 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 3–0 · 2–3

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Skiljebo	25	+30	56
2	Sunnersta	25	+43	53
3	Enskede	25	+18	52
4	Angby	25	+29	51
5	Falu BS	25	+10	44
6	Täby	25	+16	41
7	Franke	25	+2	34
8	Gute	25	0	32
9	Bollstanäs	25	−3	31
10	Kungsängen	25	−9	25
11	Lidingö	25	−25	23
12	Viggbyholms IK	25	−24	22
13	Korsnäs	25	−38	14
14	Helges	25	−49	10