Korsnäs v Falu BS prediction · Division 2 - Norra Svealand

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 15:35

Korsnäs 3–1 Falu BS FALU BS WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–2 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Falu BS win~~64%

~~The market said~~56%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.144

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.971

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Falu BS are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Korsnäs 17%, draw 19%, Falu BS 64%. Over 2.5 goals 65%, both teams to score 58%.

The AI’s read on Korsnäs v Falu BSBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Korsnäs win17%

Draw19%

Falu BS win64%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 11:30

RoundNorra Svealand · matchday 26

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Korsnäs

Falu BS

6Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · Division 2 - Norra Svealand

Last match: 10 Oct · Division 2 - Norra Svealand

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Falu BS	25	+10	44
13	Korsnäs	25	−38	14

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · falu bs winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 12 Oct 04:05 · locked at kick-off

64% The market56%

Us64%

~~Market~~56%

We make Falu BS a 64% chance to win. The market has them at 56%. We are 8 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–2.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Korsnäs v Falu BS~~1.07 – 2.32

~~Form · last six in Division 2 - Norra Svealand this season · since 5 Sept~~W1 D0 L5 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 14 v 44~~13 v 5

~~The market · Falu BS win~~56% · ours 64%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Falu BS win The market, margin stripped

Published at 62%, 64% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 56% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Korsnäs win	17%	22%	−5
Draw	19%	22%	−3
Falu BS win	64%	56%	+8
Over 2.5 goals	65%	61%	+4
Both teams to score	58%	60%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	85%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	44%	39%	+5
Korsnäs or draw	36%	44%	−8
Korsnäs clean sheet	11%	–	–
Falu BS clean sheet	35%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 1 bookmaker, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–2 at 9.2%

0123450 4.1 7.7 9.0 6.8 4.1 2.01 3.5 8.7 9.2 7.0 4.1 2.02 2.1 4.5 5.0 3.7 2.2 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Korsnäs down, Falu BS across0–5 goals a side shown (96.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,091 Division 2 - Norra Svealand matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Division 2 - Norra Svealand matches have gone over 2.5 in 65.1% of games this season, across 175 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2024 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Korsnäs at home: 0.50 scored, 3.17 conceded a game (last 6). Falu BS away: 1.00 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.07 goals for Korsnäs, 2.32 for Falu BS. Most likely score 1–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 3

~~Both scored~~2 of 3

~~Last meetings~~FAL 2–1 KOR · KOR 3–2 FAL · FAL 1–0 KOR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Division 2 - Norra Svealand this season · since 5 Sept

KORSNÄS

LLLWLL0–2 · 1–2 · 0–3 · 4–2 · 1–3 · 1–7

FALU BS

WDLLLW2–0 · 2–2 · 1–3 · 2–3 · 0–2 · 3–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Skiljebo	25	+30	56
2	Sunnersta	25	+43	53
3	Enskede	25	+18	52
4	Angby	25	+29	51
5	Falu BS	25	+10	44
6	Täby	25	+16	41
7	Franke	25	+2	34
8	Gute	25	0	32
9	Bollstanäs	25	−3	31
10	Kungsängen	25	−9	25
11	Lidingö	25	−25	23
12	Viggbyholms IK	25	−24	22
13	Korsnäs	25	−38	14
14	Helges	25	−49	10