Helges v Enskede prediction · Division 2 - Norra Svealand

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 14:49

Helges 0–1 Enskede ENSKEDE WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–2 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Enskede win~~76%

~~The market said~~84%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.090

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.041

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay7 notes · 8 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Enskede win at 76%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Enskede 76% before kick-off, 75% now. 0–0 · 9–15–75
1′KICK-OFF Helges v Enskede
32′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 32' Enskede win: 76% at kick-off, 66% now
37′We said Enskede at 76%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 64%. 0–0 · 11–24–64
45′HALF-TIME Helges 0–0 Enskede
46′SECOND HALF Helges 0–0 Enskede
47′We said Enskede at 76%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 59%. 0–0 · 12–29–59
51′Enskede score on 51′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 2–10–88
51′We said Enskede at 76% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 88%. 0–1 · 2–10–88
51′⚽ GOAL · 51' Helges 0–1 Enskede
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 51' Enskede win: 76% at kick-off, 88% now
66′We said Enskede at 76% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 0–1 · 1–9–90
83′We said Enskede at 76% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 0–1 · 0–5–95
85′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 85' Enskede win: 76% at kick-off, 96% now
FTFULL TIME Helges 0–1 Enskede
FTHelges 0–1 Enskede · Enskede win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 0–2 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Enskede are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Helges 9%, draw 15%, Enskede 76%. Over 2.5 goals 68%, both teams to score 52%.

The AI’s read on Helges v EnskedeBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Helges win9%

Draw15%

Enskede win76%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 11:30

RoundNorra Svealand · matchday 26

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Helges

Enskede

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · Division 2 - Norra Svealand

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Enskede	25	+18	52
14	Helges	25	−49	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · enskede winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

76% The market84%

Us76%

~~Market~~84%

We make Enskede a 76% chance to win. The market has them at 84%. We are 8 points less confident than the market. The model expects 0.8–2.7.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Helges v Enskede~~0.83 – 2.74

~~Form · last six in Division 2 - Norra Svealand this season · since 5 Sept~~W0 D1 L5 · W6 D0 L0

~~Table places · points 10 v 52~~14 v 3

~~The market · Enskede win~~84% · ours 76%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Enskede win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 84% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Helges win	9%	5%	+4
Draw	15%	11%	+4
Enskede win	76%	84%	−8
Over 2.5 goals	68%	75%	−7
Both teams to score	52%	47%	+5
Over 1.5 goals	86%	89%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	47%	57%	−10
Helges or draw	24%	16%	+8
Helges clean sheet	7%	–	–
Enskede clean sheet	45%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–2 at 10.4%

0123450 3.5 7.8 10.4 9.3 6.5 3.71 2.3 6.8 8.4 7.3 5.0 2.82 2.8 3.6 3.1 2.1 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Helges down, Enskede across0–5 goals a side shown (92.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,091 Division 2 - Norra Svealand matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Division 2 - Norra Svealand matches have gone over 2.5 in 65.1% of games this season, across 175 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2026 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Helges at home: 0.67 scored, 2.67 conceded a game (last 6). Enskede away: 1.67 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.83 goals for Helges, 2.74 for Enskede. Most likely score 0–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~ENS 2–1 HEL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Division 2 - Norra Svealand this season · since 5 Sept

HELGES

DLLLLL1–1 · 1–2 · 2–4 · 1–2 · 0–9 · 2–5

ENSKEDE

WWWWWW1–0 · 1–0 · 3–1 · 3–1 · 2–0 · 1–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Skiljebo	25	+30	56
2	Sunnersta	25	+43	53
3	Enskede	25	+18	52
4	Angby	25	+29	51
5	Falu BS	25	+10	44
6	Täby	25	+16	41
7	Franke	25	+2	34
8	Gute	25	0	32
9	Bollstanäs	25	−3	31
10	Kungsängen	25	−9	25
11	Lidingö	25	−25	23
12	Viggbyholms IK	25	−24	22
13	Korsnäs	25	−38	14
14	Helges	25	−49	10