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Franke v Helges

Franke

5–2Full time

Helges

Division 2 - Norra Svealand · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 17:33

Franke 5–2 Helges FRANKE WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Franke win~~73%

~~The market said~~68%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.111

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.156

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 12 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Franke win at 73%.
15′Much as we predicted: Franke was 73% before kick-off and our model makes it 71% now. 0–0 · 71–17–13
30′⚽ GOAL · 27' Franke 0–1 Helges
36′Helges find the net on 27′. 0–1. 0–1 · 37–27–36
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 36' Franke win: 73% at kick-off, 37% now
45′HALF-TIME Franke 0–1 Helges
46′⚽ GOAL · 46' Franke 1–1 Helges
46′SECOND HALF Franke 1–1 Helges
61′⚽ GOAL · 60' Franke 2–1 Helges
63′⚽ GOAL · 63' Franke 3–1 Helges
69′⚽ GOAL · 69' Franke 3–2 Helges
75′⚽ GOAL · 74' Franke 4–2 Helges
79′PENALTY MISSED · 78' Franke
79′⚽ GOAL · 78' Franke 5–2 Helges
FTFULL TIME Franke 5–2 Helges
FTFranke 5–2 Helges · Franke win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Franke win73%

Draw15%

Helges win12%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 15:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · franke winPublished 10 Oct 15:19

73% The market68%

Us73%

~~Market~~68%

We make Franke a 73% chance to win. The market has them at 68%. We are 5 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.9–1.1.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · franke win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 63% to 68% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Franke win	73%	68%	+5
Draw	15%	18%	−3
Helges win	12%	14%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	76%	70%	+6
Both teams to score	63%	60%	+3
Over 1.5 goals	91%	86%	+5
Over 3.5 goals	57%	51%	+7
Franke or draw	88%	86%	+2
Franke clean sheet	33%	–	–
Helges clean sheet	6%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 8.1%

0123450 2.3 1 5.0 6.1 3.3 2 7.4 8.1 4.6 3 7.0 7.6 4.3 4 5.2 5.6 3.1 5 3.2 3.4

under 2% 5% 12%+Franke down, Helges across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,084 Division 2 - Norra Svealand matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Division 2 - Norra Svealand matches have gone over 2.5 in 64.9% of games this season, across 168 played.

Head to head

1 previous meetings, 3.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Franke at home: 1.33 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Helges away: 1.50 scored, 3.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.95 goals for Franke, 1.13 for Helges. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~0 of 1

~~Last meetings~~HEL 0–3 FRA

Form · last six in Division 2 - Norra Svealand

FRANKE

LWLLWW1–2 · 1–0 · 1–5 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 3–1

HELGES

DDLLLL1–1 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 2–4 · 1–2 · 0–9

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Skiljebo	24	+31	56
2	Angby	24	+31	51
3	Sunnersta	24	+37	50
4	Enskede	24	+17	49
5	Täby	24	+17	41
6	Falu BS	24	+7	41
7	Gute	24	+3	32
8	Franke	24	−1	31
9	Bollstanäs	24	−2	31
10	Kungsängen	24	−10	22
11	Lidingö	24	−26	20
12	Viggbyholms IK	24	−26	19
13	Korsnäs	24	−32	14
14	Helges	24	−46	10