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Falu BS v Gute

Falu BS

3–0Full time

Gute

Division 2 - Norra Svealand · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 14:11

Falu BS 3–0 Gute FALU BS WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Falu BS win~~49%

~~The market said~~52%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.383

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.347

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Falu BS win49%

Draw25%

Gute win26%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 11:30

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · falu bs winPublished 10 Oct 13:12

49% The market52%

Us49%

~~Market~~52%

We make Falu BS a 49% chance to win. The market has them at 52%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.7–1.2.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Falu BS win	49%	52%	−2
Draw	25%	24%	0
Gute win	26%	24%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	55%	56%	−2
Both teams to score	56%	57%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	78%	76%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	33%	37%	−4
Falu BS or draw	74%	76%	−2
Falu BS clean sheet	32%	–	–
Gute clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 3 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.4%

0123450 6.5 6.1 3.9 1 9.1 11.4 6.4 2.6 2 8.1 9.2 5.4 2.2 3 4.7 5.3 3.1 4 2.1 2.4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Falu BS down, Gute across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,084 Division 2 - Norra Svealand matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Division 2 - Norra Svealand matches have gone over 2.5 in 64.9% of games this season, across 168 played.

Head to head

5 previous meetings, 2.40 goals a meeting; 2 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Falu BS at home: 2.00 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Gute away: 1.33 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.72 goals for Falu BS, 1.17 for Gute. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~2.40

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 5

~~Both scored~~1 of 5

~~Last meetings~~GUT 0–1 FAL · GUT 0–3 FAL · FAL 2–0 GUT · FAL 0–0 GUT

Form · last six in Division 2 - Norra Svealand

FALU BS

WWDLLL2–1 · 2–0 · 2–2 · 1–3 · 2–3 · 0–2

GUTE

WLWLWL4–0 · 0–1 · 3–0 · 1–3 · 2–1 · 1–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Skiljebo	24	+31	56
2	Angby	24	+31	51
3	Sunnersta	24	+37	50
4	Enskede	24	+17	49
5	Täby	24	+17	41
6	Falu BS	24	+7	41
7	Gute	24	+3	32
8	Franke	24	−1	31
9	Bollstanäs	24	−2	31
10	Kungsängen	24	−10	22
11	Lidingö	24	−26	20
12	Viggbyholms IK	24	−26	19
13	Korsnäs	24	−32	14
14	Helges	24	−46	10