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Enskede v Skiljebo

Enskede

1–0Full time

Skiljebo

Division 2 - Norra Svealand · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 14:35

Enskede 1–0 Skiljebo ENSKEDE WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Enskede win~~48%

~~The market said~~46%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.410

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.443

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 10 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Enskede win at 48%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Enskede 48% before kick-off, 48% now. 0–0 · 48–24–28
1′KICK-OFF Enskede v Skiljebo
45′HALF-TIME Enskede 0–0 Skiljebo
47′SECOND HALF Enskede 0–0 Skiljebo
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 48' Enskede win: 48% at kick-off, 38% now
68′We said Enskede at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 27%. 0–0 · 27–55–18
68′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 68' Enskede win: 48% at kick-off, 27% now
68′THE CALL SWINGS · 68' Draw is now our likeliest result at 55% (was Enskede win 27%)
84′⚽ GOAL · 84' Enskede 1–0 Skiljebo
88′84′ and it is 1–0: Enskede have scored. 1–0 · 97–3–0
88′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 88' Enskede win: 48% at kick-off, 97% now
88′THE CALL SWINGS · 88' Enskede win is now our likeliest result at 97% (was Draw 3%)
FTFULL TIME Enskede 1–0 Skiljebo
FTEnskede 1–0 Skiljebo · Enskede win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Enskede win48%

Draw25%

Skiljebo win28%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 12:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · enskede winPublished 10 Oct 12:19

48% The market46%

Us48%

~~Market~~46%

We make Enskede a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 46%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.7–1.3.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · enskede win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 39% to 46% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Enskede win	48%	46%	+2
Draw	25%	25%	−1
Skiljebo win	28%	29%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	57%	61%	−4
Both teams to score	58%	64%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	80%	79%	0
Over 3.5 goals	35%	41%	−6
Enskede or draw	72%	71%	+1
Enskede clean sheet	29%	–	–
Skiljebo clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.2%

0123450 6.0 6.0 4.1 1 8.3 11.2 6.7 2.9 2 7.5 9.0 5.7 2.5 3 4.3 5.3 3.3 4 2.4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Enskede down, Skiljebo across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,084 Division 2 - Norra Svealand matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Division 2 - Norra Svealand matches have gone over 2.5 in 64.9% of games this season, across 168 played.

Head to head

5 previous meetings, 2.40 goals a meeting; 2 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Enskede at home: 1.83 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Skiljebo away: 2.67 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.73 goals for Enskede, 1.26 for Skiljebo. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.40

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 5

~~Both scored~~3 of 5

~~Last meetings~~SKI 3–1 ENS · ENS 2–1 SKI · SKI 0–2 ENS · ENS 1–1 SKI

Form · last six in Division 2 - Norra Svealand

ENSKEDE

WWWWWW2–0 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 3–1 · 3–1 · 2–0

SKILJEBO

DWWWWW2–2 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 4–0 · 1–0 · 2–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Skiljebo	24	+31	56
2	Angby	24	+31	51
3	Sunnersta	24	+37	50
4	Enskede	24	+17	49
5	Täby	24	+17	41
6	Falu BS	24	+7	41
7	Gute	24	+3	32
8	Franke	24	−1	31
9	Bollstanäs	24	−2	31
10	Kungsängen	24	−10	22
11	Lidingö	24	−26	20
12	Viggbyholms IK	24	−26	19
13	Korsnäs	24	−32	14
14	Helges	24	−46	10