Home › Football › Division 2 - Norra Svealand › Bollstanäs v Kungsängen

Bollstanäs v Kungsängen

Bollstanäs

2–3Full time

Kungsängen

Division 2 - Norra Svealand · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 15:38

Bollstanäs 2–3 Kungsängen BOLLSTANÄS WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Bollstanäs win~~50%

~~The market said~~42%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.849

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.711

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 17 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Bollstanäs win at 50%.
2′KICK-OFF Bollstanäs v Kungsängen
3′Much as we predicted: Bollstanäs was 50% before kick-off and our model makes it 50% now. 0–0 · 50–23–27
45′HALF-TIME Bollstanäs 0–0 Kungsängen
46′SECOND HALF Bollstanäs 0–0 Kungsängen
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 46' Bollstanäs win: 50% at kick-off, 40% now
62′⚽ GOAL · 62' Bollstanäs 1–0 Kungsängen
65′⚽ GOAL · 65' Bollstanäs 2–0 Kungsängen
68′65′ and it is 2–0: Bollstanäs have scored. 2–0 · 97–2–0
68′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 68' Bollstanäs win: 50% at kick-off, 97% now
75′⚽ GOAL · 74' Bollstanäs 2–1 Kungsängen
82′⚽ GOAL · 82' Bollstanäs 2–2 Kungsängen
86′⚽ GOAL · 62' Bollstanäs 2–3 Kungsängen
86′⚽ GOAL · 65' Bollstanäs 2–3 Kungsängen
86′⚽ GOAL · 74' Bollstanäs 2–3 Kungsängen
86′⚽ GOAL · 82' Bollstanäs 2–3 Kungsängen
86′⚽ GOAL · 85' Bollstanäs 2–3 Kungsängen
89′85′ and it is 2–3: Kungsängen have scored. 2–3 · 0–2–98
89′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 89' Bollstanäs win: 50% at kick-off, 0% now
89′THE CALL SWINGS · 89' Kungsängen win is now our likeliest result at 98% (was Bollstanäs win 0%)
FTFULL TIME Bollstanäs 2–3 Kungsängen
FTBollstanäs 2–3 Kungsängen · Bollstanäs win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Bollstanäs win50%

Draw23%

Kungsängen win26%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 13:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · bollstanäs winPublished 10 Oct 13:12

50% The market42%

Us50%

~~Market~~42%

We make Bollstanäs a 50% chance to win. The market has them at 42%. We are 8 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.9–1.3.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · bollstanäs win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 47% to 42% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Bollstanäs win	50%	42%	+8
Draw	23%	26%	−2
Kungsängen win	26%	32%	−5
Over 2.5 goals	61%	61%	0
Both teams to score	61%	63%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	82%	79%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	39%	40%	−1
Bollstanäs or draw	74%	68%	+5
Bollstanäs clean sheet	28%	–	–
Kungsängen clean sheet	16%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.5%

0123450 5.1 5.2 3.6 1 7.6 10.5 6.4 2.8 2 7.4 9.2 5.9 2.6 3 4.6 5.7 3.7 4 2.2 2.8 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Bollstanäs down, Kungsängen across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,084 Division 2 - Norra Svealand matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Division 2 - Norra Svealand matches have gone over 2.5 in 64.9% of games this season, across 168 played.

Head to head

3 previous meetings, 2.33 goals a meeting; 1 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Bollstanäs at home: 1.50 scored, 2.50 conceded a game (last 6). Kungsängen away: 1.00 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.87 goals for Bollstanäs, 1.30 for Kungsängen. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~2.33

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 3

~~Both scored~~1 of 3

~~Last meetings~~KUN 1–1 BOL · KUN 0–4 BOL · BOL 0–1 KUN

Form · last six in Division 2 - Norra Svealand

BOLLSTANÄS

LLLLLW1–2 · 0–5 · 0–2 · 0–4 · 1–3 · 4–0

KUNGSÄNGEN

DWLWLW1–1 · 2–0 · 0–1 · 3–1 · 1–2 · 2–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Skiljebo	24	+31	56
2	Angby	24	+31	51
3	Sunnersta	24	+37	50
4	Enskede	24	+17	49
5	Täby	24	+17	41
6	Falu BS	24	+7	41
7	Gute	24	+3	32
8	Franke	24	−1	31
9	Bollstanäs	24	−2	31
10	Kungsängen	24	−10	22
11	Lidingö	24	−26	20
12	Viggbyholms IK	24	−26	19
13	Korsnäs	24	−32	14
14	Helges	24	−46	10