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Tord v Grebbestad

Tord

1–1Full time

Grebbestad

Division 2 - Norra Götaland · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 14:35

Tord 1–1 Grebbestad GREBBESTAD WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Grebbestad win~~43%

~~The market said~~34%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.880

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.861

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 13 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Grebbestad win at 43%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Grebbestad 43% before kick-off, 43% now. 0–0 · 34–24–43
1′KICK-OFF Tord v Grebbestad
6′⚽ GOAL · 6' Tord 1–0 Grebbestad
22′I. Lyck scores for Tord on 6′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 60–22–18
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 22' Grebbestad win: 43% at kick-off, 18% now
22′THE CALL SWINGS · 22' Tord win is now our likeliest result at 60% (was Grebbestad win 18%)
25′⚽ GOAL · 25' Tord 1–1 Grebbestad
43′25′ and it is 1–1: J. Cederlund on the scoresheet for Grebbestad. 1–1 · 30–34–36
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' Grebbestad win: 43% at kick-off, 36% now
45′HALF-TIME Tord 1–1 Grebbestad
46′SECOND HALF Tord 1–1 Grebbestad
48′The goal count is tracking the 3.2 we expected. 1–1 · 29–37–34
52′PENALTY MISSED · 52' Tord
69′Tord find the net on 52′. 1–1. 1–1 · 21–54–25
69′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 69' Grebbestad win: 43% at kick-off, 25% now
69′THE CALL SWINGS · 69' Draw is now our likeliest result at 54% (was Tord win 21%)
88′We said Grebbestad at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 3–93–4
88′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 88' Grebbestad win: 43% at kick-off, 4% now
FTFULL TIME Tord 1–1 Grebbestad
FTTord 1–1 Grebbestad · Grebbestad win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Tord win34%

Draw24%

Grebbestad win43%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 12:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · grebbestad winPublished 10 Oct 12:19

43% The market34%

Us43%

~~Market~~34%

We make Grebbestad a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 34%. We are 9 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.7.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · grebbestad win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 34% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Tord win	34%	42%	−8
Draw	24%	24%	−1
Grebbestad win	43%	34%	+9
Over 2.5 goals	61%	63%	−2
Both teams to score	62%	63%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	82%	80%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	39%	42%	−3
Tord or draw	57%	66%	−9
Tord clean sheet	19%	–	–
Grebbestad clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.5%

0123450 4.7 7.0 6.0 3.4 1 6.1 10.5 8.6 4.9 2.1 2 4.6 7.6 6.3 3.6 3 2.3 3.8 3.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Tord down, Grebbestad across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,110 Division 2 - Norra Götaland matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Division 2 - Norra Götaland matches have gone over 2.5 in 61.8% of games this season, across 170 played.

Head to head

3 previous meetings, 2.33 goals a meeting; 2 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Tord at home: 1.00 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Grebbestad away: 1.83 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.48 goals for Tord, 1.70 for Grebbestad. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~2.33

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 3

~~Both scored~~0 of 3

~~Last meetings~~GRE 3–0 TOR · GRE 1–0 TOR · TOR 3–0 GRE

Form · last six in Division 2 - Norra Götaland

TORD

WLLWLW1–0 · 1–3 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 1–5 · 3–1

GREBBESTAD

LLWWWL2–3 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 3–1 · 3–1 · 1–3

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Husqvarna	24	+40	63
2	Skara	25	+26	56
3	IFK Skövde	25	+16	47
4	Ahlafors	24	+27	43
5	Grebbestad	24	+7	39
6	Herrestads	24	+2	37
7	Stenungsund	24	+9	33
8	Vänersborgs FK	25	−10	29
9	Lidköping	24	−13	27
10	Motala	24	−3	26
11	Kumla	25	−19	26
12	Tord	24	−14	21
13	IF Karlstad II	24	−23	13
14	Vänersborgs IF	24	−45	9