Skara v Motala prediction · Division 2 - Norra Götaland

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 15:35

Skara 6–2 Motala SKARA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Skara win~~58%

~~The market said~~59%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.268

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.256

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Skara are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Skara 58%, draw 20%, Motala 22%. Over 2.5 goals 67%, both teams to score 63%.

The AI’s read on Skara v MotalaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Skara win58%

Draw20%

Motala win22%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 12:00

RoundNorra Götaland · matchday 26

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Skara

Motala

8Days since last match7

Last match: 9 Oct · Division 2 - Norra Götaland

Last match: 10 Oct · Division 2 - Norra Götaland

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Skara	25	+26	56
10	Motala	25	−5	26

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · skara winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

58% The market59%

Us58%

~~Market~~59%

We make Skara a 58% chance to win. The market has them at 59%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 2.2–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Skara v Motala~~2.20 – 1.27

~~Form · last six in Division 2 - Norra Götaland this season · since 5 Sept~~W5 D0 L1 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 56 v 26~~2 v 10

~~The market · Skara win~~59% · ours 58%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Skara win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 59% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Skara win	58%	59%	−1
Draw	20%	21%	−1
Motala win	22%	20%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	67%	66%	+1
Both teams to score	63%	63%	0
Over 1.5 goals	86%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	45%	46%	−1
Skara or draw	78%	80%	−2
Skara clean sheet	29%	–	–
Motala clean sheet	12%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 1 bookmaker, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 9.2%

0123450 3.6 4.0 2.7 1 6.9 8.9 5.5 2.4 2 7.5 9.2 5.8 2.5 3 5.4 6.6 4.2 4 3.1 3.7 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Skara down, Motala across0–5 goals a side shown (96.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,115 Division 2 - Norra Götaland matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Division 2 - Norra Götaland matches have gone over 2.5 in 61.7% of games this season, across 175 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2025 in every competition we cover, 2.33 goals a meeting; 2 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Skara at home: 2.83 scored, 0.33 conceded a game (last 6). Motala away: 1.83 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.20 goals for Skara, 1.27 for Motala. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~2.33

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 3

~~Both scored~~1 of 3

~~Last meetings~~MOT 3–0 SKA · MOT 1–0 SKA · SKA 1–2 MOT

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Division 2 - Norra Götaland this season · since 5 Sept

SKARA

WWWLWW5–0 · 4–1 · 1–0 · 1–3 · 3–1 · 1–0

MOTALA

DDLWLL2–2 · 0–0 · 1–3 · 4–0 · 2–6 · 1–3

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Husqvarna	25	+41	66
2	Skara	25	+26	56
3	IFK Skövde	25	+16	47
4	Ahlafors	25	+25	43
5	Grebbestad	25	+7	40
6	Herrestads	25	0	37
7	Stenungsund	25	+12	36
8	Lidköping	25	−11	30
9	Vänersborgs FK	25	−10	29
10	Motala	25	−5	26
11	Kumla	25	−19	26
12	Tord	25	−14	22
13	IF Karlstad II	25	−19	16
14	Vänersborgs IF	25	−49	9