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Motala v Lidköping

Motala

1–3Full time

Lidköping

Division 2 - Norra Götaland · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 15:38

Motala 1–3 Lidköping MOTALA WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Motala win~~48%

~~The market said~~50%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.803

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.879

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

Timeline

Match events aren’t available for this match.

Pre-match prediction

Motala win48%

Draw24%

Lidköping win28%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 13:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · motala winPublished 10 Oct 15:19

48% The market50%

Us48%

~~Market~~50%

We make Motala a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 50%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.2.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · motala win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 51% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Motala win	48%	50%	−3
Draw	24%	25%	−1
Lidköping win	28%	25%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	56%	61%	−5
Both teams to score	57%	62%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	79%	79%	0
Over 3.5 goals	34%	42%	−8
Motala or draw	72%	75%	−3
Motala clean sheet	29%	–	–
Lidköping clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 4 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.2%

0123450 5.8 6.5 4.1 1 8.9 11.2 6.8 2.9 2 7.6 9.1 5.6 2.4 3 4.3 5.2 3.2 4 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Motala down, Lidköping across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,110 Division 2 - Norra Götaland matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Division 2 - Norra Götaland matches have gone over 2.5 in 61.8% of games this season, across 170 played.

Head to head

5 previous meetings, 1.80 goals a meeting; 2 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Motala at home: 1.50 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Lidköping away: 0.83 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.70 goals for Motala, 1.24 for Lidköping. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~1.80

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 5

~~Both scored~~1 of 5

~~Last meetings~~LID 0–3 MOT · LID 1–2 MOT · MOT 1–0 LID · LID 2–0 MOT

Form · last six in Division 2 - Norra Götaland

MOTALA

LDDLWL2–3 · 2–2 · 0–0 · 1–3 · 4–0 · 2–6

LIDKÖPING

DWWWLW1–1 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 5–2 · 0–1 · 1–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Husqvarna	24	+40	63
2	Skara	25	+26	56
3	IFK Skövde	25	+16	47
4	Ahlafors	24	+27	43
5	Grebbestad	24	+7	39
6	Herrestads	24	+2	37
7	Stenungsund	24	+9	33
8	Vänersborgs FK	25	−10	29
9	Lidköping	24	−13	27
10	Motala	24	−3	26
11	Kumla	25	−19	26
12	Tord	24	−14	21
13	IF Karlstad II	24	−23	13
14	Vänersborgs IF	24	−45	9