Lidköping v Tord prediction · Division 2 - Norra Götaland

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 14:49

Lidköping 3–0 Tord LIDKÖPING WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Lidköping win~~50%

~~The market said~~38%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.378

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.578

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 11 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Lidköping win at 50%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Lidköping 50% before kick-off, 50% now. 0–0 · 50–25–25
1′KICK-OFF Lidköping v Tord
21′Lidköping score on 21′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 76–17–8
21′⚽ GOAL · 21' Lidköping 1–0 Tord
21′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 21' Lidköping win: 50% at kick-off, 76% now
22′We said Lidköping at 50% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 76%. 1–0 · 76–17–8
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.7 we expected. 1–0 · 76–17–7
45′HALF-TIME Lidköping 1–0 Tord
46′SECOND HALF Lidköping 1–0 Tord
55′We said Lidköping at 50% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–0 · 80–16–4
55′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 55' Lidköping win: 50% at kick-off, 80% now
58′Lidköping find the net on 58′. 2–0. 2–0 · 97–3–0
58′We said Lidköping at 50% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 97%. 2–0 · 97–3–0
58′⚽ GOAL · 58' Lidköping 2–0 Tord
58′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 58' Lidköping win: 50% at kick-off, 97% now
66′A goal for Lidköping on 66′ — 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
66′We said Lidköping at 50% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
66′3 goals already, more than the 2.7 we expected for the whole match. 3–0 · 100–0–0
66′⚽ GOAL · 66' Lidköping 3–0 Tord
66′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 66' Lidköping win: 50% at kick-off, over 99% now
FTFULL TIME Lidköping 3–0 Tord
FTLidköping 3–0 Tord · Lidköping win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Lidköping are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Lidköping 50%, draw 25%, Tord 25%. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 52%.

The AI’s read on Lidköping v TordBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Lidköping win50%

Draw25%

Tord win25%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 12:00

RoundNorra Götaland · matchday 26

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Lidköping

Tord

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · Division 2 - Norra Götaland

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Lidköping	25	−11	30
12	Tord	25	−14	22

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · lidköping winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

50% The market38%

Us50%

~~Market~~38%

We make Lidköping a 50% chance to win. The market has them at 38%. We are 12 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Lidköping v Tord~~1.61 – 1.06

~~Form · last six in Division 2 - Norra Götaland this season · since 5 Sept~~W5 D0 L1 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 30 v 22~~8 v 12

~~The market · Lidköping win~~38% · ours 50%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Lidköping win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 38% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Lidköping win	50%	38%	+12
Draw	25%	26%	−1
Tord win	25%	36%	−11
Over 2.5 goals	50%	62%	−12
Both teams to score	52%	64%	−12
Over 1.5 goals	74%	79%	−5
Over 3.5 goals	28%	41%	−13
Lidköping or draw	75%	64%	+11
Lidköping clean sheet	35%	–	–
Tord clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.8%

0123450 7.5 7.2 3.9 1 10.9 11.8 6.1 2.2 2 8.9 9.2 4.9 3 4.8 5.0 2.6 4 2.0 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Lidköping down, Tord across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,115 Division 2 - Norra Götaland matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Division 2 - Norra Götaland matches have gone over 2.5 in 61.7% of games this season, across 175 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 1.33 goals a meeting; 0 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Lidköping at home: 2.00 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Tord away: 1.50 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.61 goals for Lidköping, 1.06 for Tord. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~1.33

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 3

~~Both scored~~0 of 3

~~Last meetings~~TOR 0–1 LID · LID 0–2 TOR · TOR 0–1 LID

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Division 2 - Norra Götaland this season · since 5 Sept

LIDKÖPING

WWWLWW1–0 · 2–1 · 5–2 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 3–1

TORD

LLWLWD1–3 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 1–5 · 3–1 · 1–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Husqvarna	25	+41	66
2	Skara	25	+26	56
3	IFK Skövde	25	+16	47
4	Ahlafors	25	+25	43
5	Grebbestad	25	+7	40
6	Herrestads	25	0	37
7	Stenungsund	25	+12	36
8	Lidköping	25	−11	30
9	Vänersborgs FK	25	−10	29
10	Motala	25	−5	26
11	Kumla	25	−19	26
12	Tord	25	−14	22
13	IF Karlstad II	25	−19	16
14	Vänersborgs IF	25	−49	9