Kumla v IF Karlstad II prediction · Division 2 - Norra Götaland

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 15:35

Kumla 3–1 IF Karlstad II KUMLA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Kumla win~~45%

~~The market said~~43%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.459

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.492

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Kumla are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Kumla 45%, draw 24%, IF Karlstad II 31%. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 58%.

The AI’s read on Kumla v IF Karlstad IIBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Kumla win45%

Draw24%

IF Karlstad II win31%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 12:00

RoundNorra Götaland · matchday 26

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Kumla

IF Karlstad II

9Days since last match6

Last match: 8 Oct · Division 2 - Norra Götaland

Last match: 11 Oct · Division 2 - Norra Götaland

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	Kumla	25	−19	26
13	IF Karlstad II	25	−19	16

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · kumla winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 12 Oct 00:12 · locked at kick-off

45% The market43%

Us45%

~~Market~~43%

We make Kumla a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 43%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.6–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Kumla v IF Karlstad II~~1.65 – 1.32

~~Form · last six in Division 2 - Norra Götaland this season · since 4 Sept~~W1 D3 L2 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 26 v 16~~11 v 13

~~The market · Kumla win~~43% · ours 45%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Kumla win The market, margin stripped

Published at 47%, 45% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 43% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Kumla win	45%	43%	+2
Draw	24%	26%	−2
IF Karlstad II win	31%	31%	0
Over 2.5 goals	57%	57%	0
Both teams to score	58%	60%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	79%	78%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	35%	37%	−2
Kumla or draw	69%	69%	0
Kumla clean sheet	27%	–	–
IF Karlstad II clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 1 bookmaker, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.2%

0123450 5.7 6.7 4.5 2.0 1 8.4 11.2 7.2 3.2 2 7.0 8.9 5.8 2.6 3 3.9 4.9 3.2 4 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Kumla down, IF Karlstad II across0–5 goals a side shown (98.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,115 Division 2 - Norra Götaland matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Division 2 - Norra Götaland matches have gone over 2.5 in 61.7% of games this season, across 175 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 2.33 goals a meeting; 1 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Kumla at home: 1.00 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). IF Karlstad II away: 1.00 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.65 goals for Kumla, 1.32 for IF Karlstad II. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.33

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 3

~~Both scored~~2 of 3

~~Last meetings~~IFK 1–1 KUM · IFK 3–0 KUM · KUM 1–1 IFK

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Division 2 - Norra Götaland this season · since 4 Sept

KUMLA

DDLWLD0–0 · 0–0 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 1–3 · 3–3

IF KARLSTAD II

DLLLLW2–2 · 1–4 · 0–2 · 0–1 · 1–3 · 4–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Husqvarna	25	+41	66
2	Skara	25	+26	56
3	IFK Skövde	25	+16	47
4	Ahlafors	25	+25	43
5	Grebbestad	25	+7	40
6	Herrestads	25	0	37
7	Stenungsund	25	+12	36
8	Lidköping	25	−11	30
9	Vänersborgs FK	25	−10	29
10	Motala	25	−5	26
11	Kumla	25	−19	26
12	Tord	25	−14	22
13	IF Karlstad II	25	−19	16
14	Vänersborgs IF	25	−49	9