Husqvarna v Herrestads prediction · Division 2 - Norra Götaland

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 14:34

Husqvarna 1–0 Herrestads HUSQVARNA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Husqvarna win~~62%

~~The market said~~64%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.218

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.200

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay5 notes · 12 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Husqvarna win at 62%.
1′KICK-OFF Husqvarna v Herrestads
2′Little has changed for our model: Husqvarna 62% before kick-off, 62% now. 0–0 · 62–20–18
6′⚽ GOAL · 6' Husqvarna 1–0 Herrestads
19′6′ and it is 1–0: H. Omar on the scoresheet for Husqvarna. 1–0 · 81–13–6
19′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 19' Husqvarna win: 62% at kick-off, 81% now
19′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 19' Husqvarna win: 62% at kick-off, 62% now
20′6′ and it is 1–0: H. Omar on the scoresheet for Husqvarna. 1–0 · 81–13–6
20′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 20' Husqvarna win: 62% at kick-off, 81% now
25′🟥 RED CARD · 25' Herrestads
39′Husqvarna are down to ten from 25′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 1–0 · 81–14–5
40′Husqvarna are down to ten from 25′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 1–0 · 81–14–5
45′HALF-TIME Husqvarna 1–0 Herrestads
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Husqvarna win: 62% at kick-off, 81% now
46′SECOND HALF Husqvarna 1–0 Herrestads
52′⚽ GOAL · 6' Husqvarna 1–0 Herrestads · H. Omar
52′🟥 RED CARD · 25' H. Israelsson · Husqvarna
FTFULL TIME Husqvarna 1–0 Herrestads
FTHusqvarna 1–0 Herrestads · Husqvarna win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Husqvarna win62%

Draw20%

Herrestads win18%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 12:00

VenueVapenvallen

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Husqvarna

Herrestads

8Days since last match6

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Husqvarna	24	+40	63
6	Herrestads	24	+2	37

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · husqvarna winPublished 11 Oct 12:12

62% The market64%

Us62%

~~Market~~64%

We make Husqvarna a 62% chance to win. The market has them at 64%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 2.2–1.1.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · husqvarna win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 64% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Husqvarna win	62%	64%	−2
Draw	20%	21%	−1
Herrestads win	18%	16%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	65%	64%	+1
Both teams to score	60%	58%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	85%	80%	+5
Over 3.5 goals	43%	44%	−1
Husqvarna or draw	82%	84%	−2
Husqvarna clean sheet	33%	–	–
Herrestads clean sheet	11%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 9.4%

0123450 3.9 3.9 2.3 1 7.7 8.9 4.9 2 8.6 9.4 5.3 2.0 3 6.4 6.9 3.9 4 3.6 4.0 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Husqvarna down, Herrestads across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,113 Division 2 - Norra Götaland matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Division 2 - Norra Götaland matches have gone over 2.5 in 61.8% of games this season, across 173 played.

Head to head

1 previous meetings, 4.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Husqvarna at home: 2.00 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Herrestads away: 1.33 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.25 goals for Husqvarna, 1.12 for Herrestads. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~HER 1–3 HUS

Form · last six in Division 2 - Norra Götaland

HUSQVARNA

WWLWWW3–2 · 3–1 · 0–2 · 1–0 · 3–1 · 4–0

HERRESTADS

WDLWLW1–0 · 2–2 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 0–4 · 3–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Husqvarna	24	+40	63
2	Skara	25	+26	56
3	IFK Skövde	25	+16	47
4	Ahlafors	25	+25	43
5	Grebbestad	25	+7	40
6	Herrestads	24	+2	37
7	Stenungsund	25	+11	36
8	Lidköping	25	−11	30
9	Vänersborgs FK	25	−10	29
10	Motala	25	−5	26
11	Kumla	25	−19	26
12	Tord	25	−14	22
13	IF Karlstad II	24	−23	13
14	Vänersborgs IF	24	−45	9