Herrestads v Ahlafors prediction · Division 2 - Norra Götaland

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 14:49

Herrestads 2–6 Ahlafors HERRESTADS WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Herrestads win~~39%

~~The market said~~36%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.581

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.547

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Herrestads just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Herrestads 39%, draw 23%, Ahlafors 38%. Over 2.5 goals 65%, both teams to score 65%.

The AI’s read on Herrestads v AhlaforsBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Herrestads win39%

Draw23%

Ahlafors win38%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 12:00

RoundNorra Götaland · matchday 26

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Herrestads

Ahlafors

6Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · Division 2 - Norra Götaland

Last match: 10 Oct · Division 2 - Norra Götaland

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Ahlafors	25	+25	43
6	Herrestads	25	0	37

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · herrestads winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 17 Oct 05:28 · locked at kick-off

39% The market36%

Us39%

~~Market~~36%

We make Herrestads a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 36%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.7.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Herrestads v Ahlafors~~1.68 – 1.68

~~Form · last six in Division 2 - Norra Götaland this season · since 4 Sept~~W2 D1 L3 · W3 D0 L3

~~Table places · points 37 v 43~~6 v 4

~~The market · Herrestads win~~36% · ours 39%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Herrestads win The market, margin stripped

Published at 38%, 39% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 36% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Herrestads win	39%	36%	+3
Draw	23%	24%	−1
Ahlafors win	38%	40%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	65%	69%	−4
Both teams to score	65%	70%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	84%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	43%	50%	−7
Herrestads or draw	62%	60%	+2
Herrestads clean sheet	19%	–	–
Ahlafors clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 4 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.9%

0123450 3.9 5.8 4.9 2.8 1 5.8 9.9 8.0 4.5 2 5.0 8.0 6.6 3.7 3 2.8 4.5 3.7 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Herrestads down, Ahlafors across0–5 goals a side shown (98.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,115 Division 2 - Norra Götaland matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Division 2 - Norra Götaland matches have gone over 2.5 in 61.7% of games this season, across 175 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 7 previous meetings since 2022 in every competition we cover, 2.86 goals a meeting; 3 of 7 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Herrestads at home: 2.33 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Ahlafors away: 1.33 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.68 goals for Herrestads, 1.68 for Ahlafors. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~2.86

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 7

~~Both scored~~2 of 7

~~Last meetings~~AHL 5–0 HER · HER 4–0 AHL · AHL 2–0 HER · AHL 2–1 HER

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Division 2 - Norra Götaland this season · since 4 Sept

HERRESTADS

DLWLWL2–2 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 0–4 · 3–1 · 0–1

AHLAFORS

LWLWWL0–1 · 2–0 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 6–2 · 1–3

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Husqvarna	25	+41	66
2	Skara	25	+26	56
3	IFK Skövde	25	+16	47
4	Ahlafors	25	+25	43
5	Grebbestad	25	+7	40
6	Herrestads	25	0	37
7	Stenungsund	25	+12	36
8	Lidköping	25	−11	30
9	Vänersborgs FK	25	−10	29
10	Motala	25	−5	26
11	Kumla	25	−19	26
12	Tord	25	−14	22
13	IF Karlstad II	25	−19	16
14	Vänersborgs IF	25	−49	9