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Ahlafors v Stenungsund

Ahlafors

1–3Full time

Stenungsund

Division 2 - Norra Götaland · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 15:38

Ahlafors 1–3 Stenungsund AHLAFORS WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Ahlafors win~~57%

~~The market said~~62%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.972

~~The market’s Brier score~~1.096

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 17 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Ahlafors win at 57%.
2′Much as we predicted: Ahlafors was 57% before kick-off and our model makes it 57% now. 0–0 · 57–21–22
2′KICK-OFF Ahlafors v Stenungsund
4′⚽ GOAL · 4' Ahlafors 0–1 Stenungsund
7′⚽ GOAL · 7' Ahlafors 0–1 Stenungsund
22′4′ and it is 0–1: Stenungsund have scored. 0–1 · 28–25–47
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 22' Ahlafors win: 57% at kick-off, 28% now
22′THE CALL SWINGS · 22' Stenungsund win is now our likeliest result at 47% (was Ahlafors win 28%)
42′We said Ahlafors at 57%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 20%. 0–1 · 20–27–53
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Ahlafors win: 57% at kick-off, 20% now
45′We said Ahlafors at 57%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–1 · 19–27–54
45′HALF-TIME Ahlafors 0–1 Stenungsund
48′SECOND HALF Ahlafors 0–1 Stenungsund
55′⚽ GOAL · 55' Ahlafors 0–2 Stenungsund
63′⚽ GOAL · 63' Ahlafors 1–2 Stenungsund
64′A goal for Ahlafors on 63′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 9–26–65
64′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 64' Ahlafors win: 57% at kick-off, 9% now
82′⚽ GOAL · 4' Ahlafors 1–3 Stenungsund
82′⚽ GOAL · 55' Ahlafors 1–3 Stenungsund
82′⚽ GOAL · 63' Ahlafors 1–3 Stenungsund
82′⚽ GOAL · 82' Ahlafors 1–3 Stenungsund
85′82′ and it is 1–3: Stenungsund have scored. 1–3 · 0–1–99
85′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 85' Ahlafors win: 57% at kick-off, 0% now
FTFULL TIME Ahlafors 1–3 Stenungsund
FTAhlafors 1–3 Stenungsund · Ahlafors win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Ahlafors win57%

Draw21%

Stenungsund win22%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 13:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · ahlafors winPublished 10 Oct 13:12

57% The market62%

Us57%

~~Market~~62%

We make Ahlafors a 57% chance to win. The market has them at 62%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.1–1.2.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · ahlafors win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 62% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Ahlafors win	57%	62%	−5
Draw	21%	20%	+1
Stenungsund win	22%	18%	+4
Over 2.5 goals	64%	69%	−5
Both teams to score	61%	63%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	84%	84%	0
Over 3.5 goals	43%	50%	−7
Ahlafors or draw	78%	82%	−4
Ahlafors clean sheet	30%	–	–
Stenungsund clean sheet	13%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.3%

0123450 4.0 4.4 2.8 1 7.5 9.3 5.6 2.4 2 7.8 9.3 5.7 2.4 3 5.5 6.5 4.0 4 2.9 3.5 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Ahlafors down, Stenungsund across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,110 Division 2 - Norra Götaland matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Division 2 - Norra Götaland matches have gone over 2.5 in 61.8% of games this season, across 170 played.

Head to head

7 previous meetings, 3.57 goals a meeting; 5 of 7 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Ahlafors at home: 3.67 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Stenungsund away: 2.00 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.10 goals for Ahlafors, 1.23 for Stenungsund. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~3.57

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 7

~~Both scored~~5 of 7

~~Last meetings~~STE 0–4 AHL · AHL 1–1 STE · STE 0–0 AHL · AHL 3–2 STE

Form · last six in Division 2 - Norra Götaland

AHLAFORS

WLWLWW7–1 · 0–1 · 2–0 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 6–2

STENUNGSUND

LDLWWL0–1 · 2–2 · 0–1 · 2–0 · 5–1 · 0–3

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Husqvarna	24	+40	63
2	Skara	25	+26	56
3	IFK Skövde	25	+16	47
4	Ahlafors	24	+27	43
5	Grebbestad	24	+7	39
6	Herrestads	24	+2	37
7	Stenungsund	24	+9	33
8	Vänersborgs FK	25	−10	29
9	Lidköping	24	−13	27
10	Motala	24	−3	26
11	Kumla	25	−19	26
12	Tord	24	−14	21
13	IF Karlstad II	24	−23	13
14	Vänersborgs IF	24	−45	9