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Model 1.2

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Växjö W v Häcken W

Växjö W
1–2Full time
Häcken W

Damallsvenskan · FRI 23 OCT · Spiris Arena

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 20:31
Växjö W 1–2 Häcken W HÄCKEN W WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · WRONG0–3 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Häcken W win88%
The market said87%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.022
The market’s Brier score0.028

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay15 notes · 28 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Häcken W win at 88%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Häcken W 88% before kick-off, 88% now. 0–0 · 5–7–88
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Växjö W v Häcken W
  4. 23′🟨 YELLOW · 22' Växjö W
  5. 26′⚽ GOAL · 26' Växjö W 0–1 Häcken W
  6. 29′Häcken W find the net on 26′. 0–1. 0–1 · 1–5–94
  7. 45′HALF-TIME Växjö W 0–1 Häcken W
  8. 46′SECOND HALF Växjö W 0–1 Häcken W
  9. 64′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Häcken W · On: Anna·Anvegard · Off: Tabby Tindell
  10. 64′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Häcken W · On: Delaney Matriano · Off: johanna sorensen
  11. 64′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Häcken W · On: Tilde karlsson · Off: Stine Larsen
  12. 68′We said Häcken W at 88%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 53%. 1–1 · 7–40–53
  13. 68′⚽ GOAL · 68' Växjö W 1–1 Häcken W
  14. 68′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 68' Häcken W win: 88% at kick-off, 53% now
  15. 69′Häcken W have had 15 attempts to 2 and it is still 1–1. 1–1 · 7–42–52
  16. 71′We said Häcken W at 88%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 49%. 1–1 · 7–45–49
  17. 72′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 72' Häcken W win: 88% at kick-off, 47% now
  18. 74′We said Häcken W at 88%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 44%. 1–1 · 6–50–44
  19. 74′THE CALL SWINGS · 74' Draw is now our likeliest result at 50% (was Häcken W win 47%)
  20. 76′ellin nilsson scores for Växjö W on 68′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 6–54–40
  21. 76′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Häcken W · On: tuva olvestad · Off: Maja Bodin
  22. 77′We said Häcken W at 88%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 38%. 1–1 · 6–56–38
  23. 77′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 77' Häcken W win: 88% at kick-off, 38% now
  24. 78′16 shots for Häcken W, 2 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 1–1 · 5–59–36
  25. 79′We said Häcken W at 88%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 1–1 · 5–61–34
  26. 81′We said Häcken W at 88%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 5–66–29
  27. 82′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 82' Häcken W win: 88% at kick-off, 26% now
  28. 83′We said Häcken W at 88%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 4–72–24
  29. 84′🟨 YELLOW · 82' Växjö W
  30. 85′We said Häcken W at 88%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 3–77–19
  31. 86′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 86' Häcken W win: 88% at kick-off, 18% now
  32. 89′We said Häcken W at 88%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 13%. 1–1 · 2–85–13
  33. 89′⚽ GOAL · 89' Växjö W 1–2 Häcken W
  34. 89′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 89' Häcken W win: 88% at kick-off, 98% now
  35. 89′THE CALL SWINGS · 89' Häcken W win is now our likeliest result at 98% (was Draw 83%)
  36. 89′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Växjö W · On: elvira hammarback · Off: Sophia Redenstrand
  37. 89′GOAL DISALLOWED · 89' Häcken W
  38. 89′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 89' Häcken W win: 88% at kick-off, 13% now
  39. 89′THE CALL SWINGS · 89' Draw is now our likeliest result at 85% (was Häcken W win 98%)
  40. 90′⚽ GOAL · 90' Växjö W 1–2 Häcken W
  41. 90′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90' Häcken W win: 88% at kick-off, 98% now
  42. 90′THE CALL SWINGS · 90' Häcken W win is now our likeliest result at 98% (was Draw 85%)
  43. 91′Häcken W score on 89′ to make it 1–2. 1–2 · 0–2–98
  44. FTFULL TIME Växjö W 1–2 Häcken W
  45. FTVäxjö W 1–2 Häcken W · Häcken W win: right · Over 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: wrong · 0–3 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Häcken W are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Växjö W 5%, draw 7%, Häcken W 88%. Over 2.5 goals 79%, both teams to score 46%.

The AI’s read on Växjö W v Häcken WBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Växjö W win5%
Draw7%
Häcken W win88%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 18:00

RoundMatchday 23

VenueSpiris Arena

Line-ups

Växjö W

4-3-3

Häcken W

4-4-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Växjö W

Häcken W

6Days since last match5

Last match: 17 Oct · Damallsvenskan

Last match: 18 Oct · Damallsvenskan

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
1Häcken W22+6061
13Växjö W22−2018

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Växjö W

4-3-3

1 M. Østergaard

4 A. Broman

16 A. Larsson

7 N. Karlsson

11 S. Redenstrand

15 mariann nielsen

33 E. Nilsson

20 T. Persson Welin

29 T. Sandén

9 T. Andersson

17 S. Swedman

Coach · –

Substitutes

19 · P. M. Bladh

6 · S. Brajkovic

23 · charlotte noa eriksson barriento

2 · E. Hammarbäck

31 · M. Kristiansen

22 · K. Lindback

32 · V. Persbeck

5 · L. Persson

Häcken W

4-4-2

29 H. Karlsson

20 J. Rybrink

3 A. Luik

12 S. Larsen

15 A. Selerud

27 T. Pálmadóttir

7 P. Sanvig

21 johanna sorensen

24 T. Tindell

6 J. Omewa

9 M. Bodin

Coach · –

Substitutes

10 · A. Anvegård

8 · J. Baudou

17 · Faith Chinzimu

13 · J. Falk

14 · H. Karlsson

5 · Delaney Matriano

11 · tuva olvestad

26 · N. Staaf

25 · J. Steen

Our number · häcken w winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · updated 19 Oct 00:18 · locked at kick-off
88% The market87%
Us88%
Market87%

We make Häcken W an 88% chance to win. The market has them at 87%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 0.7–3.7.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Växjö W v Häcken W0.68 – 3.68
Form · last six in Damallsvenskan this season · since 5 SeptW0 D1 L5 · W5 D1 L0
Table places · points 18 v 6113 v 1
The market · Häcken W win87% · ours 88%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
75%80%85%90% 17 OCT 00:0123 OCT 17:48
Our probability · Häcken W win The market, margin stripped

Published at 87%, 88% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 87% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Växjö W win5%4%+1
Draw7%9%−2
Häcken W win88%87%+1
Over 2.5 goals79%73%+6
Both teams to score46%40%+6
Over 1.5 goals92%87%+5
Over 3.5 goals62%55%+7
Växjö W or draw12%13%−1
Växjö W clean sheet3%––
Häcken W clean sheet52%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–3 at 10.2%
0123450 5.6 8.8 10.2 9.1 6.81 3.3 6.0 6.7 5.9 4.32 2.1 2.4 2.0 3 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Växjö W down, Häcken W across0–5 goals a side shown (82.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2022
Goals a meeting3.89
Over 2.58 of 9
Both scored2 of 9
Last meetingsHAC 4–2 VAX · VAX 0–5 HAC · HAC 3–1 VAX · HAC 4–0 VAX

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Damallsvenskan this season · since 5 Sept

VÄXJÖ W

LLDLLL0–2 · 0–3 · 2–2 · 0–3 · 0–2 · 1–2

HÄCKEN W

DWWWWW1–1 · 4–0 · 3–0 · 6–0 · 9–0 · 3–0

The table

2026
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Häcken W22+6061
2Hammarby W22+3853
3Malmö FF W22+2742
4Kristianstad W22+835
5AIK W22034
6Vittsjö W22+132
7Brommapojkarna W22−732
8Djurgården W22−627
9Eskilstuna United W22−1027
10Piteå W22−724
11Rosengård W22−323
12Norrköping W22−1720
13Växjö W22−2018
14Uppsala W22−646

The competition's standings before kick-off.