Uppsala W v Kristianstad W prediction · Damallsvenskan

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 17:28

Uppsala W 0–5 Kristianstad W KRISTIANSTAD W WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT0–3 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Kristianstad W win~~78%

~~The market said~~86%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.071

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.032

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 24 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Kristianstad W win at 78%.
2′Little has changed for our model: Kristianstad W 78% before kick-off, 78% now. 0–0 · 10–12–78
2′KICK-OFF Uppsala W v Kristianstad W
4′A goal for Kristianstad W on 4′. 0–0 · 10–12–77
5′We said Kristianstad W at 78% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 0–1 · 3–7–90
5′⚽ GOAL · 4' Uppsala W 0–1 Kristianstad W
5′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 5' Kristianstad W win: 78% at kick-off, 90% now
44′We said Kristianstad W at 78% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 97%. 0–2 · 0–2–97
44′The goal count is tracking the 4.2 we expected. 0–2 · 0–2–97
44′⚽ GOAL · 44' Uppsala W 0–2 Kristianstad W
45′GOAL DISALLOWED · 45' Kristianstad W
45′HALF-TIME Uppsala W 0–1 Kristianstad W
46′SECOND HALF Uppsala W 0–1 Kristianstad W
48′⚽ GOAL · 48' Uppsala W 0–2 Kristianstad W
48′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Kristianstad W · On: Maja Hagemann · Off: elisa sigurjonsdottir
49′We said Kristianstad W at 78% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 0–3 · 0–0–100
49′⚽ GOAL · 49' Uppsala W 0–3 Kristianstad W
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 49' Kristianstad W win: 78% at kick-off, over 99% now
51′⚽ GOAL · 51' Uppsala W 0–4 Kristianstad W
53′alice egner scores for Kristianstad W on 4′. 0–4 · 0–0–100
53′We said Kristianstad W at 78% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 0–4 · 0–0–100
55′Michelle De Jongh scores for Kristianstad W on 48′. 0–4 · 0–0–100
58′Kristianstad W ahead on 51′ through Maja Hagemann. 0–4. 0–4 · 0–0–100
58′SUBSTITUTION · 54' Uppsala W · On: ella rosenblom · Off: Elin flakberg
58′SUBSTITUTION · 54' Uppsala W · On: Alva Helmersson · Off: Michelle Rojas Flores
62′5 goals already, more than the 4.2 we expected for the whole match. 0–5 · 0–0–100
62′⚽ GOAL · 62' Uppsala W 0–5 Kristianstad W
66′alice egner scores for Kristianstad W on 60′ — 0–5. 0–5 · 0–0–100
71′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Kristianstad W · On: Hanna·Ekengren · Off: Elin Hansson
75′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Kristianstad W · On: Sadie Sider-Echenberg · Off: Alexandra Jóhannsdóttir
81′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Uppsala W · On: Alicia ekfeldt · Off: Clara Leffler
84′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Kristianstad W · On: Annika huhta · Off: Michelle De Jongh
84′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Kristianstad W · On: waniya hudson · Off: Linn viktoria persson
91′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Uppsala W · On: Linnea strand · Off: amelia olofsson
91′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Uppsala W · On: Johanna dimberg · Off: Ebba ronquist
91′🟨 YELLOW · 86' Uppsala W
FTFULL TIME Uppsala W 0–5 Kristianstad W
FTUppsala W 0–5 Kristianstad W · Kristianstad W win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 0–3 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Kristianstad W are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Uppsala W 10%, draw 12%, Kristianstad W 78%. Over 2.5 goals 78%, both teams to score 60%.

The AI’s read on Uppsala W v Kristianstad WBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Uppsala W win10%

Draw12%

Kristianstad W win78%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 22

VenueStudenternas IP

Line-ups

Uppsala W

3-5-2

Kristianstad W

4-4-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Uppsala W

Kristianstad W

13Days since last match14

Last match: 4 Oct · Damallsvenskan

Last match: 3 Oct · Damallsvenskan

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Kristianstad W	21	+3	32
14	Uppsala W	21	−59	6

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Uppsala W

3-5-2

30 L. Hallen

2 A. Weldai

14 A. Klingberg

23 E. Ronquist

20 S. Fredgren

7 M. Rojas Flores

5 C. Ek

8 T. Lindskog

26 E. Flakberg

21 S. Leffler

10 A. Olofsson

Coach · Hanna Spets

Substitutes

4 · J. Dimberg

6 · T. Hockert

13 · A. Ekfeldt

22 · L. Strand

27 · E. Rosenblom

33 · T. Eriksson

49 · A. Helmersson

Kristianstad W

4-4-2

33 M. Olsson

22 L. Sternfeldt

20 G. Arnadottir

8 A. Nilsson

27 V. Persson

7 E. Sigurjonsdottir

9 M. De Jongh

6 A. Johannsdottir

14 T. Persson

4 A. Egner

19 E. Hansson

Coach · Daniel Angergard

Substitutes

1 · M. Mellblom

2 · W. Hudson

3 · C. Ruedt

10 · S. Sider-Echenberg

11 · H. Ekengren

12 · A. Huhta

13 · M. Hagemann

18 · F. Widen

Our number · kristianstad w winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

78% The market86%

Us78%

~~Market~~86%

We make Kristianstad W a 78% chance to win. The market has them at 86%. We are 8 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.0–3.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Uppsala W v Kristianstad W~~1.03 – 3.20

~~Form · last six in Damallsvenskan this season · since 28 Aug~~W0 D0 L6 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 6 v 32~~14 v 5

~~The market · Kristianstad W win~~86% · ours 78%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Kristianstad W win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 86% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Uppsala W win	10%	5%	+5
Draw	12%	10%	+2
Kristianstad W win	78%	86%	−8
Over 2.5 goals	78%	72%	+6
Both teams to score	60%	44%	+16
Over 1.5 goals	91%	87%	+4
Over 3.5 goals	60%	53%	+7
Uppsala W or draw	22%	14%	+8
Uppsala W clean sheet	5%	–	–
Kristianstad W clean sheet	37%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–3 at 7.7%

0123450 5.5 7.5 7.7 6.1 4.01 2.3 4.7 7.5 7.5 5.9 3.82 2.7 3.9 3.9 3.0 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Uppsala W down, Kristianstad W across0–5 goals a side shown (87.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,013 Damallsvenskan matches up to 4 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Damallsvenskan matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.8% of games this season, across 147 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 4.33 goals a meeting; 3 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Uppsala W at home: 0.50 scored, 4.00 conceded a game (last 6). Kristianstad W away: 1.67 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.03 goals for Uppsala W, 3.20 for Kristianstad W. Most likely score 0–3.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~4.33

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 3

~~Both scored~~2 of 3

~~Last meetings~~KRI 3–2 UPP · UPP 2–2 KRI · KRI 4–0 UPP

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Damallsvenskan this season · since 28 Aug

UPPSALA W

LLLLLL0–6 · 0–5 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 1–4 · 0–9

KRISTIANSTAD W

WLWDLW1–0 · 0–2 · 2–0 · 2–2 · 1–3 · 2–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Häcken W	21	+57	58
2	Hammarby W	21	+41	53
3	Malmö FF W	21	+26	39
4	AIK W	21	+1	34
5	Kristianstad W	21	+3	32
6	Vittsjö W	21	+3	32
7	Brommapojkarna W	21	−8	29
8	Eskilstuna United W	21	−9	27
9	Piteå W	21	−6	24
10	Djurgården W	21	−7	24
11	Rosengård W	21	−5	20
12	Växjö W	21	−19	18
13	Norrköping W	21	−18	17
14	Uppsala W	21	−59	6