Rosengård W v Vittsjö W prediction · Damallsvenskan

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 17:28

Rosengård W 2–0 Vittsjö W ROSENGÅRD W WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Rosengård W win~~46%

~~The market said~~49%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.446

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.384

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 21 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Rosengård W win at 46%.
1′Much as we predicted: Rosengård W was 46% before kick-off and our model makes it 45% now. 0–0 · 45–25–30
1′KICK-OFF Rosengård W v Vittsjö W
33′Rosengård W score on 32′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 73–19–7
33′We published Rosengård W at 46%. Our model now makes it 73%. 1–0 · 73–19–7
33′Goals are coming at about the 2.5 we expected. 1–0 · 73–19–7
33′⚽ GOAL · 32' Rosengård W 1–0 Vittsjö W
33′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 33' Rosengård W win: 46% at kick-off, 73% now
40′We published Rosengård W at 46%. Our model now makes it 75%. 1–0 · 75–19–7
45′HALF-TIME Rosengård W 1–0 Vittsjö W
45′🟨 YELLOW · 43' Rosengård W
46′SECOND HALF Rosengård W 1–0 Vittsjö W
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 46' Rosengård W win: 46% at kick-off, 76% now
52′32′: Elli Pikkujamsa on the scoresheet for Rosengård W, making it 1–0. 1–0 · 77–18–5
52′We published Rosengård W at 46%. Our model now makes it 77%. 1–0 · 77–18–5
54′🟨 YELLOW · 49' Vittsjö W
60′We published Rosengård W at 46%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–3
70′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Vittsjö W · On: Hannah Sjödahl · Off: Nellie Persson
70′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Vittsjö W · On: milla larsson · Off: olivia wanglund
72′We published Rosengård W at 46%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–13–2
73′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 73' Rosengård W win: 46% at kick-off, 86% now
79′We published Rosengård W at 46%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–0 · 90–10–1
80′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Rosengård W · On: filippa sjostrom · Off: Simone Peyton Jackson
80′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Rosengård W · On: Thea Sørbo · Off: Ran Iwai
80′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Rosengård W · On: Jo-Anne Agbor-Tataw Cronquist · Off: Isabel Gomez
80′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Vittsjö W · On: Nova rolfsson · Off: sofie rewucha
81′We published Rosengård W at 46%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
81′Goals are coming at about the 2.5 we expected. 2–0 · 100–0–0
81′⚽ GOAL · 81' Rosengård W 2–0 Vittsjö W
81′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 81' Rosengård W win: 46% at kick-off, over 99% now
83′Rosengård W ahead on 81′ through Remy Siemsen. 2–0. 2–0 · 100–0–0
83′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Rosengård W · On: Ria Öling · Off: Remy Siemsen
90′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Rosengård W · On: Stella Malmros · Off: Elli Pikkujamsa
90′🟨 YELLOW · 85' Rosengård W
FTFULL TIME Rosengård W 2–0 Vittsjö W
FTRosengård W 2–0 Vittsjö W · Rosengård W win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Rosengård W are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Rosengård W 46%, draw 24%, Vittsjö W 30%. Over 2.5 goals 45%, both teams to score 47%.

The AI’s read on Rosengård W v Vittsjö WBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Rosengård W win46%

Draw24%

Vittsjö W win30%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 22

VenueMalmo Stadion

Line-ups

Rosengård W

4-3-3

Vittsjö W

4-1-4-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Rosengård W

Vittsjö W

13Days since last match14

Last match: 4 Oct · Damallsvenskan

Last match: 3 Oct · Damallsvenskan

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Vittsjö W	21	+3	32
11	Rosengård W	21	−5	20

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Rosengård W

4-3-3

1 M. Edrud

3 R. Iwai

4 E. Pennsater

2 K. Senelius

25 J. Mathiasen

10 R. Siemsen

45 T. Bjorklund

20 I. Gomez

26 B. Henry

8 E. Pikkujamsa

80 S. Jackson

Coach · Fran Alonso

Substitutes

43 · S. Andersson

6 · R. Oling

7 · T. Sorbo

21 · S. Malmros

32 · T. Carlsson

40 · S. Sulaiman

44 · J. Cronquist

50 · F. Sjostrom

51 · T. Staffansson

Vittsjö W

4-1-4-1

13 E. Vaughan

9 E. Klinga

23 K. Lind

2 S. Ojanen

6 A. Altheden

15 N. Persson

8 S. Rewucha

16 O. Wanglund

4 A. Haddock

10 M. Cagle

24 D. Galic

Coach · Mladen Blagojevic

Substitutes

3 · J. Tunturi

7 · N. Jensen

11 · N. Rolfsson

18 · H. Sjodahl

21 · M. Larsson

22 · S. Lynn

33 · T. Lundmark

Our number · rosengård w winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

46% The market49%

Us46%

~~Market~~49%

We make Rosengård W a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 49%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Rosengård W v Vittsjö W~~1.41 – 1.07

~~Form · last six in Damallsvenskan this season · since 29 Aug~~W3 D0 L3 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 20 v 32~~11 v 6

~~The market · Rosengård W win~~49% · ours 46%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Rosengård W win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 49% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Rosengård W win	46%	49%	−3
Draw	24%	25%	−1
Vittsjö W win	30%	26%	+4
Over 2.5 goals	45%	56%	−11
Both teams to score	47%	59%	−12
Over 1.5 goals	69%	79%	−10
Over 3.5 goals	24%	36%	−12
Rosengård W or draw	70%	74%	−4
Rosengård W clean sheet	35%	–	–
Vittsjö W clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 12.8%

0123450 8.0 10.3 4.9 1 12.8 11.1 6.4 2.4 2 8.2 8.4 4.5 3 4.0 4.1 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Rosengård W down, Vittsjö W across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,013 Damallsvenskan matches up to 4 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Damallsvenskan matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.8% of games this season, across 147 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.50 goals a meeting; 7 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Rosengård W at home: 1.17 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Vittsjö W away: 1.50 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.41 goals for Rosengård W, 1.07 for Vittsjö W. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.50

~~Over 2.5~~7 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~VIT 1–1 ROS · VIT 1–1 ROS · VIT 3–2 ROS · ROS 2–2 VIT

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Damallsvenskan this season · since 29 Aug

ROSENGÅRD W

LWWLWL0–1 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 0–1

VITTSJÖ W

LWLDWW1–3 · 5–0 · 0–4 · 2–2 · 3–1 · 2–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Häcken W	21	+57	58
2	Hammarby W	21	+41	53
3	Malmö FF W	21	+26	39
4	AIK W	21	+1	34
5	Kristianstad W	21	+3	32
6	Vittsjö W	21	+3	32
7	Brommapojkarna W	21	−8	29
8	Eskilstuna United W	21	−9	27
9	Piteå W	21	−6	24
10	Djurgården W	21	−7	24
11	Rosengård W	21	−5	20
12	Växjö W	21	−19	18
13	Norrköping W	21	−18	17
14	Uppsala W	21	−59	6