Norrköping W v Uppsala W prediction · Damallsvenskan

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 18:08

Norrköping W 5–0 Uppsala W NORRKÖPING W WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Norrköping W win~~76%

~~The market said~~87%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.085

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.028

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 20 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Norrköping W win at 76%.
1′Much as we predicted: Norrköping W was 76% before kick-off and our model makes it 76% now. 0–0 · 76–13–10
1′KICK-OFF Norrköping W v Uppsala W
4′🟨 YELLOW · 4' Uppsala W
5′Norrköping W find the net on 5′. 0–0 · 75–14–11
6′We published Norrköping W at 76%. Our model now makes it 89%. 1–0 · 89–8–3
6′⚽ GOAL · 5' Norrköping W 1–0 Uppsala W
6′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 6' Norrköping W win: 76% at kick-off, 89% now
30′Goals are coming at about the 3.6 we expected. 1–0 · 88–9–3
39′We published Norrköping W at 76%. Our model now makes it 98%. 2–0 · 98–2–0
39′⚽ GOAL · 39' Norrköping W 2–0 Uppsala W
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 39' Norrköping W win: 76% at kick-off, 98% now
42′Norrköping W ahead on 38′ through Emma Engström. 2–0. 2–0 · 98–2–0
55′We published Norrköping W at 76%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
55′⚽ GOAL · 55' Norrköping W 3–0 Uppsala W
59′Paula klingspor scores for Norrköping W on 55′ — 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
79′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Uppsala W · On: Michelle Rojas Flores · Off: Tora lindskog
79′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Uppsala W · On: Naima Altamirano · Off: Elin flakberg
79′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Uppsala W · On: Thea Eriksson · Off: arsema weldai
79′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Norrköping W · On: malva larsson · Off: Carrie Jones
79′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Norrköping W · On: Nova Axelsson · Off: helen agnes ekberg
79′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Norrköping W · On: lova braam · Off: Elin Rombing
79′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Uppsala W · On: Johanna dimberg · Off: Linnea strand
86′4 goals already, more than the 3.6 we expected for the whole match. 4–0 · 100–0–0
86′⚽ GOAL · 86' Norrköping W 4–0 Uppsala W
89′Norrköping W score on 86′ to make it 4–0. 4–0 · 100–0–0
89′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Norrköping W · On: sigdis bardardottir · Off: Julia Karlenas
92′That is 5, and we only asked for 3.6 across ninety minutes. 5–0 · 100–0–0
92′⚽ GOAL · 90+2' Norrköping W 5–0 Uppsala W
96′Norrköping W find the net on 90′. 5–0. 5–0 · 100–0–0
96′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Norrköping W · On: olivia arvidsson · Off: Emma Engström
96′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Uppsala W · On: ella rosenblom · Off: amelia olofsson
FTFULL TIME Norrköping W 5–0 Uppsala W
FTNorrköping W 5–0 Uppsala W · Norrköping W win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Norrköping W are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Norrköping W 76%, draw 13%, Uppsala W 10%. Over 2.5 goals 68%, both teams to score 52%.

The AI’s read on Norrköping W v Uppsala WBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Norrköping W win76%

Draw13%

Uppsala W win10%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 23

VenueIdrottsparken

Line-ups

Norrköping W

4-4-2

Uppsala W

3-5-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Norrköping W

Uppsala W

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · Damallsvenskan

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
12	Norrköping W	22	−17	20
14	Uppsala W	22	−64	6

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Norrköping W

4-4-2

1 S. Hjern

3 D. De La Harpe

4 E. Handfast

27 J. Harrysson

7 E. Rombing

8 C. Jones

6 J. Karlernäs

20 M. Kristell

13 P. Broddner-Klingspor

17 A. H. Ekberg

9 E. Engström

Coach · –

Substitutes

30 · E. Steen

33 · O. Arvidsson

31 · Nova Axelsson

24 · S. Bárðardóttir

16 · L. Braam

32 · Elsa Johansson Brannberg

34 · Agnes Karlsson

19 · I. Larsson

2 · M. M. Larsson M.

Uppsala W

3-5-2

30 L. Hallen

2 A. Weldai

14 A. Klingberg

23 E. Ronquist

20 S. Fredgren

8 T. Lindskog

26 E. Flakberg

5 C. Ek

22 L. Strand

21 S. Leffler

10 A. Olofsson

Coach · –

Substitutes

27 · E. Rosenblom

7 · M. Rojas Flores

6 · T. Höckert

24 · Alva Helmersson

33 · Thea Eriksson

13 · A. Ekfeldt

4 · J. Dimberg

18 · N. Altamirano

Our number · norrköping w winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

76% The market87%

Us76%

~~Market~~87%

We make Norrköping W a 76% chance to win. The market has them at 87%. We are 11 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.7–0.8.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Norrköping W v Uppsala W~~2.75 – 0.85

~~Form · last six in Damallsvenskan this season · since 5 Sept~~W2 D1 L3 · W0 D0 L6

~~Table places · points 20 v 6~~12 v 14

~~The market · Norrköping W win~~87% · ours 76%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Norrköping W win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 87% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Norrköping W win	76%	87%	−11
Draw	13%	9%	+4
Uppsala W win	10%	4%	+6
Over 2.5 goals	68%	74%	−6
Both teams to score	52%	39%	+13
Over 1.5 goals	86%	88%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	48%	55%	−7
Norrköping W or draw	90%	96%	−6
Norrköping W clean sheet	44%	–	–
Uppsala W clean sheet	7%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 10.2%

0123450 2.5 3.2 1 8.5 6.0 2.8 2 10.2 8.4 3.6 3 9.1 7.4 3.2 4 6.3 5.0 2.1 5 3.6 2.9

under 2% 5% 12%+Norrköping W down, Uppsala W across0–5 goals a side shown (92.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,021 Damallsvenskan matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Damallsvenskan matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.4% of games this season, across 155 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 7 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 3.14 goals a meeting; 5 of 7 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Norrköping W at home: 0.50 scored, 3.00 conceded a game (last 6). Uppsala W away: 0.50 scored, 5.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.75 goals for Norrköping W, 0.85 for Uppsala W. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~3.14

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 7

~~Both scored~~4 of 7

~~Last meetings~~UPP 0–4 NOR · NOR 2–1 UPP · UPP 2–2 NOR · UPP 0–1 NOR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Damallsvenskan this season · since 5 Sept

NORRKÖPING W

LLWLDW0–2 · 0–2 · 2–1 · 0–6 · 1–1 · 2–1

UPPSALA W

LLLLLL0–5 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 1–4 · 0–9 · 0–5

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Häcken W	23	+61	64
2	Hammarby W	22	+38	53
3	Malmö FF W	22	+27	42
4	Kristianstad W	22	+8	35
5	AIK W	22	0	34
6	Vittsjö W	22	+1	32
7	Brommapojkarna W	22	−7	32
8	Djurgården W	22	−6	27
9	Eskilstuna United W	22	−10	27
10	Piteå W	22	−7	24
11	Rosengård W	22	−3	23
12	Norrköping W	22	−17	20
13	Växjö W	23	−21	18
14	Uppsala W	22	−64	6