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Malmö FF W v AIK W

Malmö FF W
3–2Full time
AIK W

Damallsvenskan · SAT 17 OCT · Eleda Stadion

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 15:35
Malmö FF W 3–2 AIK W MALMÖ FF W WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Malmö FF W win67%
The market said60%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.167
The market’s Brier score0.244

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay15 notes · 22 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Malmö FF W win at 67%.
  2. 1′KICK-OFF Malmö FF W v AIK W
  3. 2′Little has changed for our model: Malmö FF W 67% before kick-off, 66% now. 0–0 · 66–19–15
  4. 8′A goal for Malmö FF W on 7′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 85–11–4
  5. 8′⚽ GOAL · 7' Malmö FF W 1–0 AIK W
  6. 8′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 8' Malmö FF W win: 67% at kick-off, 85% now
  7. 9′We said Malmö FF W at 67% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–0 · 85–11–4
  8. 12′⚽ GOAL · 12' Malmö FF W 1–1 AIK W
  9. 12′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 12' Malmö FF W win: 67% at kick-off, 64% now
  10. 16′11′: daniella famili on the scoresheet for AIK W, making it 1–1. 1–1 · 62–22–15
  11. 22′We said Malmö FF W at 67% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 84%. 2–1 · 84–12–4
  12. 22′⚽ GOAL · 22' Malmö FF W 2–1 AIK W
  13. 22′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 22' Malmö FF W win: 67% at kick-off, 84% now
  14. 25′Malmö FF W ahead on 21′ through Isabella D’Aquila. 2–1. 2–1 · 84–12–4
  15. 30′3 goals already, more than the 3.0 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 84–12–4
  16. 35′We said Malmö FF W at 67% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 97%. 3–1 · 97–3–1
  17. 35′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.0 across ninety minutes. 3–1 · 97–3–1
  18. 35′⚽ GOAL · 35' Malmö FF W 3–1 AIK W
  19. 35′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 35' Malmö FF W win: 67% at kick-off, 97% now
  20. 41′Amy Sayer scores for Malmö FF W on 34′ — 3–1. 3–1 · 97–3–0
  21. 45′HALF-TIME Malmö FF W 3–1 AIK W
  22. 46′SECOND HALF Malmö FF W 3–1 AIK W
  23. 49′5 goals already, more than the 3.0 we expected for the whole match. 3–2 · 85–12–3
  24. 49′⚽ GOAL · 49' Malmö FF W 3–2 AIK W
  25. 49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 49' Malmö FF W win: 67% at kick-off, 85% now
  26. 50′48′: Matilda Plan on the scoresheet for AIK W, making it 3–2. 3–2 · 85–12–3
  27. 60′🟨 YELLOW · 54' Nova selin · AIK W
  28. 60′🟨 YELLOW · 57' Charlotte Grant · Malmö FF W
  29. 73′We said Malmö FF W at 67% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 3–2 · 90–9–1
  30. 76′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Malmö FF W · On: Vesna Milivojevic · Off: tuva skoog
  31. 76′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Malmö FF W · On: Hlin·Eiriksdottir · Off: stinalisa johansson
  32. 77′AIK W have had 13 attempts to 8 and it is still 3–2. 3–2 · 91–8–1
  33. 87′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Malmö FF W · On: Nellie Lilja · Off: Amy Sayer
  34. 87′SUBSTITUTION · 82' AIK W · On: ida bjornberg · Off: Anna Oskarsson
  35. 88′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 88' Malmö FF W win: 67% at kick-off, 97% now
  36. 92′18 shots for AIK W, 10 the other way, and they still trail 3–2. 3–2 · 98–2–0
  37. 93′🟨 YELLOW · 90' Malmö FF W
  38. FTFULL TIME Malmö FF W 3–2 AIK W
  39. FTMalmö FF W 3–2 AIK W · Malmö FF W win: right · Over 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Malmö FF W are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Malmö FF W 67%, draw 18%, AIK W 15%. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on Malmö FF W v AIK WBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Malmö FF W win67%
Draw18%
AIK W win15%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 22

VenueEleda Stadion

Line-ups

Malmö FF W

4-2-3-1

AIK W

4-1-4-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Malmö FF W

AIK W

13Days since last match13

Last match: 4 Oct · Damallsvenskan

Last match: 4 Oct · Damallsvenskan

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
3Malmö FF W21+2639
4AIK W21+134

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Malmö FF W

4-2-3-1

1 Z. Musovic

3 C. Grant

4 E. Lofqvist

15 A. Martensson

18 C. Nevin

21 A. Sayer

8 M. Persson

19 L. Russell

10 I. D'Aquila

7 S. Johansson

16 T. Skoog

Coach · Jonas Valfridsson

Substitutes

31 · K. Krammer

6 · N. Lilja

9 · H. Eiriksdottir

11 · V. Milivojevic

17 · K. Olesen

25 · M. Khatawi

29 · A. Lindstrom

33 · H. Lupton

AIK W

4-1-4-1

21 E. Dannback

22 A. Oscarsson

4 J. Nordin

23 E. Reidy

26 J. Ragnarsson

13 D. Famili

5 H. Tabata

8 D. Hashemi

10 N. Selin

15 A. Halldorsdottir

29 M. Plan

Coach · Lukas Syberyjski

Substitutes

18 · E. Agnekil

30 · F. Ahlin

3 · T. Mattsson

25 · O. Lindstedt

7 · E. Junetoft

11 · I. Bjornberg

20 · A. Bogucka

Our number · malmö ff w winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
67% The market60%
Us67%
Market60%

We make Malmö FF W a 67% chance to win. The market has them at 60%. We are 7 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.1–0.8.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Malmö FF W v AIK W2.11 – 0.85
Form · last six in Damallsvenskan this season · since 29 AugW4 D1 L1 · W3 D1 L2
Table places · points 39 v 343 v 4
The market · Malmö FF W win60% · ours 67%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
55%60%65%70% 11 OCT 04:0617 OCT 12:25
Our probability · Malmö FF W win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 60% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Malmö FF W win67%60%+7
Draw18%22%−4
AIK W win15%18%−3
Over 2.5 goals56%58%−2
Both teams to score49%55%−6
Over 1.5 goals78%79%−1
Over 3.5 goals34%37%−3
Malmö FF W or draw85%82%+3
Malmö FF W clean sheet43%––
AIK W clean sheet13%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 11.9%
0123450 4.8 5.4 1 11.9 8.4 3.9 2 11.4 9.4 4.0 3 8.0 6.6 2.8 4 4.3 3.5 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Malmö FF W down, AIK W across0–5 goals a side shown (97.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2024
Goals a meeting3.67
Over 2.52 of 3
Both scored2 of 3
Last meetingsAIK 2–2 MAL · MAL 2–0 AIK · AIK 1–4 MAL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Damallsvenskan this season · since 29 Aug

MALMÖ FF W

WDWWLW4–0 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 3–0 · 1–3 · 1–0

AIK W

LDWWWL0–1 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 3–0 · 1–2

The table

2026
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Häcken W21+5758
2Hammarby W21+4153
3Malmö FF W21+2639
4AIK W21+134
5Kristianstad W21+332
6Vittsjö W21+332
7Brommapojkarna W21−829
8Eskilstuna United W21−927
9Piteå W21−624
10Djurgården W21−724
11Rosengård W21−520
12Växjö W21−1918
13Norrköping W21−1817
14Uppsala W21−596

The competition's standings before kick-off.