Kristianstad W v Malmö FF W prediction · Damallsvenskan

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 16:33

Kristianstad W 1–2 Malmö FF W MALMÖ FF W WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Malmö FF W win~~49%

~~The market said~~55%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.386

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.308

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 20 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Malmö FF W win at 49%.
2′Little has changed for our model: Malmö FF W 49% before kick-off, 49% now. 0–0 · 29–22–49
2′KICK-OFF Kristianstad W v Malmö FF W
33′A goal for Malmö FF W on 32′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 8–18–73
33′⚽ GOAL · 32' Kristianstad W 0–1 Malmö FF W
33′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 33' Malmö FF W win: 49% at kick-off, 73% now
34′We said Malmö FF W at 49% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 73%. 0–1 · 8–18–73
34′The goal count is tracking the 3.0 we expected. 0–1 · 8–18–73
43′We said Malmö FF W at 49% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 0–1 · 7–18–75
45′HALF-TIME Kristianstad W 0–1 Malmö FF W
46′SECOND HALF Kristianstad W 0–1 Malmö FF W
60′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 60' Malmö FF W win: 49% at kick-off, 79% now
63′We said Malmö FF W at 49% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 0–1 · 4–17–80
67′We said Malmö FF W at 49% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 97%. 0–2 · 0–3–97
67′⚽ GOAL · 67' Kristianstad W 0–2 Malmö FF W
67′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 67' Malmö FF W win: 49% at kick-off, 97% now
69′61′: Larkin Russell on the scoresheet for Malmö FF W, making it 0–2. 0–2 · 0–2–98
69′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Kristianstad W · On: Maja Hagemann · Off: elisa sigurjonsdottir
69′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Kristianstad W · On: Elin Hansson · Off: Hanna·Ekengren
71′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Malmö FF W · On: tuva skoog · Off: Vesna Milivojevic Corrected
71′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Malmö FF W · On: stinalisa johansson · Off: Larkin Russell Corrected
75′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 75' Malmö FF W win: 49% at kick-off, 99% now
78′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Malmö FF W · On: Natalie Persson · Off: Agnes Martensson
80′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Kristianstad W · On: filippa widen andersson · Off: Michelle De Jongh
80′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Malmö FF W · On: Nellie Lilja · Off: Mia Persson
83′We said Malmö FF W at 49% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 0–2 · 0–0–100
86′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Malmö FF W · On: Karoline Olesen · Off: Isabella D’Aquila
90′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Kristianstad W · On: Annika huhta · Off: lova sternfeldt
91′3 goals already, more than the 3.0 we expected for the whole match. 1–2 · 0–3–97
91′⚽ GOAL · 90+1' Kristianstad W 1–2 Malmö FF W
93′Kristianstad W find the net on 90′. 1–2. 1–2 · 0–2–98
FTFULL TIME Kristianstad W 1–2 Malmö FF W
FTKristianstad W 1–2 Malmö FF W · Malmö FF W win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Malmö FF W are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Kristianstad W 29%, draw 21%, Malmö FF W 49%. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 56%.

The AI’s read on Kristianstad W v Malmö FF WBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Kristianstad W win29%

Draw21%

Malmö FF W win49%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 23

VenueVilans IP

Line-ups

Kristianstad W

4-4-2

Malmö FF W

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Kristianstad W

Malmö FF W

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · Damallsvenskan

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Malmö FF W	22	+27	42
4	Kristianstad W	22	+8	35

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Kristianstad W

4-4-2

33 M. Olsson

22 L. Sternfeldt

20 Gudny Arnadottir

8 A. Nilsson

27 V. Persson

9 M. De Jongh

14 T. Persson

6 A. Jóhannsdóttir

7 E. Sigurjónsdóttir

4 A. Egnér

11 H. Ekengren

Coach · –

Substitutes

13 · M. Hagemann

19 · Elin Hansson

2 · W. Hudson

12 · Annika huhta

1 · M. Mellblom

3 · C. Ruedt

10 · Sadie Sider-Echenberg

18 · F. Widén

Malmö FF W

4-2-3-1

9 H. Eiríksdóttir

1 Z. Mušović

15 A. Mårtensson

4 E. Löfqvist

13 E. Petrović

3 C. Grant

21 A. Sayer

8 M. Persson

19 L. Russell

11 V. Milivojević

10 I. D'Aquila

Coach · –

Substitutes

7 · S. Johansson

31 · K. Krammer

6 · N. Lilja

29 · Ä. Lindström

18 · C. Nevin

17 · K. Olesen

16 · T. Skoog

2 · N. Hoff-Persson

Our number · malmö ff w winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 24 Oct 04:16 · locked at kick-off

49% The market55%

Us49%

~~Market~~55%

We make Malmö FF W a 49% chance to win. The market has them at 55%. We are 6 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.7.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Kristianstad W v Malmö FF W~~1.24 – 1.73

~~Form · last six in Damallsvenskan this season · since 5 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 35 v 42~~4 v 3

~~The market · Malmö FF W win~~55% · ours 49%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Malmö FF W win The market, margin stripped

Published at 50%, 49% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 55% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Kristianstad W win	29%	21%	+8
Draw	21%	24%	−3
Malmö FF W win	49%	55%	−6
Over 2.5 goals	57%	57%	0
Both teams to score	56%	56%	0
Over 1.5 goals	78%	78%	0
Over 3.5 goals	35%	36%	−1
Kristianstad W or draw	51%	45%	+6
Kristianstad W clean sheet	19%	–	–
Malmö FF W clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 9.9%

0123450 4.5 9.9 7.6 4.4 2.0 1 7.5 9.8 9.0 5.2 2.4 2 4.1 6.7 5.6 3.2 3 2.9 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Kristianstad W down, Malmö FF W across0–5 goals a side shown (98.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,021 Damallsvenskan matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Damallsvenskan matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.4% of games this season, across 155 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2024 in every competition we cover, 3.25 goals a meeting; 2 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Kristianstad W at home: 1.67 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Malmö FF W away: 2.17 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.24 goals for Kristianstad W, 1.73 for Malmö FF W. Most likely score 0–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 24 Oct 13:31. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~3.25

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 4

~~Both scored~~2 of 4

~~Last meetings~~MAL 6–0 KRI · MAL 1–3 KRI · KRI 1–1 MAL · MAL 1–0 KRI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Damallsvenskan this season · since 5 Sept

KRISTIANSTAD W

LWDLWW0–2 · 2–0 · 2–2 · 1–3 · 2–0 · 5–0

MALMÖ FF W

DWWLWW1–1 · 1–0 · 3–0 · 1–3 · 1–0 · 3–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Häcken W	23	+61	64
2	Hammarby W	22	+38	53
3	Malmö FF W	22	+27	42
4	Kristianstad W	22	+8	35
5	AIK W	22	0	34
6	Vittsjö W	22	+1	32
7	Brommapojkarna W	22	−7	32
8	Djurgården W	22	−6	27
9	Eskilstuna United W	22	−10	27
10	Piteå W	22	−7	24
11	Rosengård W	22	−3	23
12	Norrköping W	22	−17	20
13	Växjö W	23	−21	18
14	Uppsala W	22	−64	6