Hammarby W v Djurgården W prediction · Damallsvenskan

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 16:33

Hammarby W 3–0 Djurgården W HAMMARBY W WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Hammarby W win~~79%

~~The market said~~74%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.068

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.102

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 21 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Hammarby W win at 79%.
1′Much as we predicted: Hammarby W was 79% before kick-off and our model makes it 79% now. 0–0 · 79–13–9
1′KICK-OFF Hammarby W v Djurgården W
8′🟨 YELLOW · 7' Djurgården W
19′We published Hammarby W at 79%. Our model now makes it 91%. 1–0 · 91–7–2
19′⚽ GOAL · 19' Hammarby W 1–0 Djurgården W
19′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 19' Hammarby W win: 79% at kick-off, 91% now
25′Hammarby W ahead on 18′ through Marin ida hermannsdottir. 1–0. 1–0 · 90–8–2
30′Goals are coming at about the 3.5 we expected. 1–0 · 90–8–2
41′We published Hammarby W at 79%. Our model now makes it 98%. 2–0 · 98–2–0
41′⚽ GOAL · 41' Hammarby W 2–0 Djurgården W
45′A goal for Hammarby W on 40′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 98–1–0
45′HALF-TIME Hammarby W 2–0 Djurgården W
46′SECOND HALF Hammarby W 2–0 Djurgården W
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 51' Hammarby W win: 79% at kick-off, 99% now
69′We published Hammarby W at 79%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
69′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Djurgården W · On: elin westlund · Off: Annika svensson
69′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Djurgården W · On: freyja stefansdottir · Off: Maho Hirosawa
69′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Djurgården W · On: olivia ulenius · Off: Johanna Renmark
69′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Djurgården W · On: lovis bang · Off: elsa pelgander
69′⚽ GOAL · 69' Hammarby W 3–0 Djurgården W
77′68′: Marin ida hermannsdottir on the scoresheet for Hammarby W, making it 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
77′🟥 RED CARD · 71' emma holmqvist · Djurgården W
77′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Djurgården W · On: maria gros · Off: Lucia Duras
77′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Hammarby W · On: Stella Maiquez · Off: Vilde Hasund
78′A red card for Djurgården W on 71′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 3–0 · 100–0–0
79′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Hammarby W · On: Filippa Curmark · Off: Elin Sorum Ahgren
85′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Hammarby W · On: sally nylen · Off: sofia reidy
85′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Hammarby W · On: ines lorenius · Off: Fanny Peterson
89′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Hammarby W · On: anna linder · Off: Vilma Koivisto
FTFULL TIME Hammarby W 3–0 Djurgården W
FTHammarby W 3–0 Djurgården W · Hammarby W win: right · Over 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Hammarby W are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Hammarby W 79%, draw 13%, Djurgården W 9%. Over 2.5 goals 66%, both teams to score 46%.

The AI’s read on Hammarby W v Djurgården WBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Hammarby W win79%

Draw13%

Djurgården W win9%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 23

VenueHammarby IP

Line-ups

Hammarby W

4-3-3

Djurgården W

4-4-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Hammarby W

Djurgården W

6Days since last match6

Last match: 18 Oct · Damallsvenskan

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Hammarby W	22	+38	53
8	Djurgården W	22	−6	27

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Hammarby W

4-3-3

1 E. Holmgren

14 M. Janzen

18 A. Carlsson

3 G. Arnardóttir

15 S. Reidy

25 F. Peterson

8 V. Koivisto

6 E. Sørum

20 V. Hasund

19 I. Hermannsdottir

7 A. Walter

Coach · –

Substitutes

11 · I. Lorenius

24 · S. Nylén

23 · A. Lundgren

9 · M. Nyhagen

27 · S. Maiquez

16 · S. Rehnberg

29 · C. Andersson

5 · F. Curmark

22 · A. Linder

Djurgården W

4-4-2

35 M. Ohman

24 S. Svendsen

2 E. Holmqvist

4 N. Ruuskanen

5 A. Svensson

19 L. Duras

8 E. Pelgander

11 T. Åsland

23 U. Watanabe

22 M. Hirosawa

9 J. Renmark

Coach · –

Substitutes

17 · S. Eriksson

3 · S. Henrichs

40 · E. Redtzer

21 · M. Staffansson

27 · F. Stefánsdóttir

7 · O. Ulenius

18 · E. Westlund

25 · L. Bang

10 · M. Grós

Our number · hammarby w winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 19 Oct 00:18 · locked at kick-off

79% The market74%

Us79%

~~Market~~74%

We make Hammarby W a 79% chance to win. The market has them at 74%. We are 5 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.7–0.7.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Hammarby W v Djurgården W~~2.74 – 0.72

~~Form · last six in Damallsvenskan this season · since 5 Sept~~W4 D0 L2 · W3 D0 L3

~~Table places · points 53 v 27~~2 v 8

~~The market · Hammarby W win~~74% · ours 79%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Hammarby W win The market, margin stripped

Published at 80%, 79% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 74% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Hammarby W win	79%	74%	+5
Draw	13%	16%	−3
Djurgården W win	9%	9%	0
Over 2.5 goals	66%	66%	0
Both teams to score	46%	51%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	84%	83%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	45%	45%	0
Hammarby W or draw	91%	91%	0
Hammarby W clean sheet	49%	–	–
Djurgården W clean sheet	7%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 11.6%

0123450 2.9 3.1 1 9.5 5.8 2.4 2 11.6 8.2 3.0 3 10.4 7.2 2.7 4 7.1 4.9 5 4.1 2.7

under 2% 5% 12%+Hammarby W down, Djurgården W across0–5 goals a side shown (93.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,021 Damallsvenskan matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Damallsvenskan matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.4% of games this season, across 155 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.30 goals a meeting; 5 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Hammarby W at home: 3.33 scored, 0.17 conceded a game (last 6). Djurgården W away: 1.67 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.74 goals for Hammarby W, 0.72 for Djurgården W. Most likely score 2–0.

Line-ups

Confirmed 24 Oct 13:31. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.30

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 10

~~Both scored~~4 of 10

~~Last meetings~~DJU 0–2 HAM · DJU 2–1 HAM · HAM 2–1 DJU · DJU 0–2 HAM

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Damallsvenskan this season · since 5 Sept

HAMMARBY W

WWLWWL2–0 · 3–0 · 1–2 · 3–0 · 2–0 · 0–3

DJURGÅRDEN W

LLLWWW0–1 · 0–2 · 0–3 · 4–1 · 2–1 · 3–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Häcken W	23	+61	64
2	Hammarby W	22	+38	53
3	Malmö FF W	22	+27	42
4	Kristianstad W	22	+8	35
5	AIK W	22	0	34
6	Vittsjö W	22	+1	32
7	Brommapojkarna W	22	−7	32
8	Djurgården W	22	−6	27
9	Eskilstuna United W	22	−10	27
10	Piteå W	22	−7	24
11	Rosengård W	22	−3	23
12	Norrköping W	22	−17	20
13	Växjö W	23	−21	18
14	Uppsala W	22	−64	6