Häcken W v Hammarby W prediction · Damallsvenskan

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 14:51

Häcken W 3–0 Hammarby W HÄCKEN W WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Häcken W win~~51%

~~The market said~~48%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.365

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.407

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 21 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Häcken W win at 51%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Häcken W 51% before kick-off, 51% now. 0–0 · 51–22–27
1′KICK-OFF Häcken W v Hammarby W
11′We said Häcken W at 51% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 74%. 1–0 · 74–17–9
11′⚽ GOAL · 11' Häcken W 1–0 Hammarby W
11′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 11' Häcken W win: 51% at kick-off, 74% now
12′Häcken W score on 11′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 74–17–9
27′We said Häcken W at 51% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 1–0 · 75–18–8
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.8 we expected. 1–0 · 75–18–8
39′We said Häcken W at 51% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 93%. 2–0 · 93–5–1
39′⚽ GOAL · 39' Häcken W 2–0 Hammarby W
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 39' Häcken W win: 51% at kick-off, 93% now
39′🟨 YELLOW · 36' Josefine Rybrink · Häcken W
43′Häcken W ahead on 38′ through Tabby Tindell. 2–0. 2–0 · 94–5–1
45′🟨 YELLOW · 43' Hammarby W
45′HALF-TIME Häcken W 2–0 Hammarby W
46′SECOND HALF Häcken W 2–0 Hammarby W
47′We said Häcken W at 51% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 2–0 · 95–4–1
62′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Hammarby W · On: Fanny Peterson · Off: Mathilde Janzen
67′🟨 YELLOW · 61' Gudrun Arnardottir · Hammarby W
73′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Hammarby W · On: Svea Rehnberg · Off: Marin ida hermannsdottir
73′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Hammarby W · On: Rosendal Nyhagen · Off: Vilde Hasund
76′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Häcken W · On: Stine Larsen · Off: Josefine Rybrink
76′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Häcken W · On: tuva olvestad · Off: Joy Omewa Ogochukwu
78′🟨 YELLOW · 76' Häcken W
79′We said Häcken W at 51% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
79′3 goals already, more than the 2.8 we expected for the whole match. 3–0 · 100–0–0
79′⚽ GOAL · 79' Häcken W 3–0 Hammarby W
81′A goal for Häcken W on 79′ — 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
90′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Hammarby W · On: Stella Maiquez · Off: Anna Christine Walter
90′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Hammarby W · On: Athinna Persson Lundgren · Off: Elin Sorum Ahgren
91′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Häcken W · On: johanna sorensen · Off: Maja Bodin
FTFULL TIME Häcken W 3–0 Hammarby W
FTHäcken W 3–0 Hammarby W · Häcken W win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Häcken W are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Häcken W 51%, draw 22%, Hammarby W 27%. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on Häcken W v Hammarby WBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Häcken W win51%

Draw22%

Hammarby W win27%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 12:00

RoundMatchday 22

VenueNordic Wellness Arena

Line-ups

Häcken W

4-4-2

Hammarby W

3-4-3

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Häcken W

Hammarby W

14Days since last match14

Last match: 4 Oct · Damallsvenskan

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Häcken W

4-4-2

13 J. Falk

4 E. Ostlund

20 J. Rybrink

3 A. Luik

15 A. Selerud

27 T. K. Palmadottir

10 A. Anvegard

7 P. Sanvig

9 M. Bodin

24 T. Tindell

6 J. Omewa

Coach · Elena Sadiku

Substitutes

8 · J. Baudou

12 · S. Sandbech

16 · T. Olvestad

17 · F. Chinzimu

21 · J. Fossdalsa

22 · E. McBride

25 · J. Steen

26 · N. Staaf

29 · H. Karlsson

Hammarby W

3-4-3

29 C. Andersson

15 S. Reidy

18 A. Carlsson

3 G. Arnardottir

17 S. Lennartsson

8 V. Koivisto

14 M. Janzen

7 A. Walter

6 E. Sorum

19 I. Hermannsdottir

20 V. Hasund

Coach · William Stromberg

Substitutes

1 · E. Holmgren

4 · J. Pegram

5 · F. Curmark

9 · M. Nyhagen

11 · I. Lorenius

16 · S. Rehnberg

23 · A. Lundgren

25 · F. Peterson

27 · S. Maiquez

Our number · häcken w winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

51% The market48%

Us51%

~~Market~~48%

We make Häcken W a 51% chance to win. The market has them at 48%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Häcken W v Hammarby W~~1.68 – 1.13

~~Form · last six in Damallsvenskan this season · since 29 Aug~~W5 D1 L0 · W5 D0 L1

~~Table places · points 58 v 53~~1 v 2

~~The market · Häcken W win~~48% · ours 51%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Häcken W win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 48% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Häcken W win	51%	48%	+3
Draw	22%	26%	−4
Hammarby W win	27%	26%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	53%	53%	0
Both teams to score	53%	56%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	75%	75%	0
Over 3.5 goals	31%	33%	−2
Häcken W or draw	73%	74%	−1
Häcken W clean sheet	33%	–	–
Hammarby W clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 11.2%

0123450 5.7 8.0 3.9 1 11.2 10.1 6.2 2.4 2 8.3 9.1 5.2 2.0 3 4.7 5.1 2.9 4 2.1 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Häcken W down, Hammarby W across0–5 goals a side shown (98.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,018 Damallsvenskan matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Damallsvenskan matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.6% of games this season, across 152 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 3 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Häcken W at home: 4.33 scored, 0.33 conceded a game (last 6). Hammarby W away: 2.00 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.68 goals for Häcken W, 1.13 for Hammarby W. Most likely score 1–0.

Line-ups

Confirmed 18 Oct 11:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 10

~~Both scored~~3 of 10

~~Last meetings~~HAM 0–1 HAC · HAM 0–0 HAC · HAC 3–2 HAM · HAM 0–1 HAC

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Damallsvenskan this season · since 29 Aug

HÄCKEN W

WDWWWW1–0 · 1–1 · 4–0 · 3–0 · 6–0 · 9–0

HAMMARBY W

WWWLWW3–1 · 2–0 · 3–0 · 1–2 · 3–0 · 2–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Häcken W	21	+57	58
2	Hammarby W	21	+41	53
3	Malmö FF W	22	+27	42
4	Kristianstad W	22	+8	35
5	AIK W	22	0	34
6	Vittsjö W	22	+1	32
7	Brommapojkarna W	22	−7	32
8	Eskilstuna United W	22	−10	27
9	Piteå W	21	−6	24
10	Djurgården W	21	−7	24
11	Rosengård W	22	−3	23
12	Norrköping W	22	−17	20
13	Växjö W	22	−20	18
14	Uppsala W	22	−64	6