Eskilstuna United W v Norrköping W prediction · Damallsvenskan

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 18:10

Eskilstuna United W 1–2 Norrköping W ESKILSTUNA UNITED W WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Eskilstuna United W win~~42%

~~The market said~~37%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.753

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.629

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 14 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Eskilstuna United W win at 42%.
1′Much as we predicted: Eskilstuna United W was 42% before kick-off and our model makes it 42% now. 0–0 · 42–28–30
1′KICK-OFF Eskilstuna United W v Norrköping W
8′Much as we predicted: Eskilstuna United W was 42% before kick-off and our model makes it 41% now. 0–0 · 41–30–29
31′A goal for Norrköping W on 29′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 11–25–64
31′⚽ GOAL · 29' Eskilstuna United W 0–1 Norrköping W
31′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 31' Eskilstuna United W win: 42% at kick-off, 11% now
31′THE CALL SWINGS · 31' Norrköping W win is now our likeliest result at 64% (was Eskilstuna United W win 11%)
32′A goal for Norrköping W on 30′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 11–24–64
32′We said Eskilstuna United W at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 11%. 0–1 · 11–24–64
32′Goals are coming at about the 2.1 we expected. 0–1 · 11–24–64
39′We said Eskilstuna United W at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–24–67
45′HALF-TIME Eskilstuna United W 0–1 Norrköping W
46′SECOND HALF Eskilstuna United W 0–1 Norrköping W
61′We said Eskilstuna United W at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–1 · 4–20–76
70′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 70' Eskilstuna United W win: 42% at kick-off, 2% now
82′⚽ GOAL · 82' Eskilstuna United W 1–1 Norrköping W
82′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 82' Eskilstuna United W win: 42% at kick-off, 9% now
82′THE CALL SWINGS · 82' Draw is now our likeliest result at 84% (was Norrköping W win 7%)
84′Eskilstuna United W score on 82′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 7–88–5
85′Eskilstuna United W have had 8 attempts to 3 and it is still 1–1. 1–1 · 6–89–5
92′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+2' Eskilstuna United W win: 42% at kick-off, 2% now
93′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.1 across ninety minutes. 1–2 · 0–2–98
93′⚽ GOAL · 90+3' Eskilstuna United W 1–2 Norrköping W
93′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+3' Norrköping W win is now our likeliest result at 98% (was Draw 2%)
FTFULL TIME Eskilstuna United W 1–2 Norrköping W
FTEskilstuna United W 1–2 Norrköping W · Eskilstuna United W win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Eskilstuna United W are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Eskilstuna United W 42%, draw 28%, Norrköping W 30%. Over 2.5 goals 34%, both teams to score 39%.

The AI’s read on Eskilstuna United W v Norrköping WBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Eskilstuna United W win42%

Draw28%

Norrköping W win30%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 22

VenueTunavallen

Line-ups

Eskilstuna United W

4-4-2

Norrköping W

4-1-4-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Eskilstuna United W

Norrköping W

14Days since last match14

Last match: 3 Oct · Damallsvenskan

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Eskilstuna United W	21	−9	27
13	Norrköping W	21	−18	17

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Eskilstuna United W

4-4-2

35 M. Wilhelm

27 B. Gards

16 R. Combs

14 S. van den Bulk

17 E. Schampi

9 F. Rogic

8 W. Ohman

11 V. Ollonqvist

7 G. Rennie

29 L. Prambrant

18 B. Sember

Coach · Rickard Johansson

Substitutes

1 · A. Blom

2 · K. Ekstrom

3 · L. K. Sundqvist Westerberg I.

5 · J. Barth

13 · M. Wiklander

20 · R. Abrink

21 · H. Vidarsdottir

25 · E. Rappole

Norrköping W

4-1-4-1

1 S. Hjern

7 E. Rombing

4 E. Handfast

27 J. Harrysson

3 D. De la Harpe

6 J. Karlernas

17 A. Ekberg

8 C. Jones

20 M. Kristell

13 P. Broddner-Klingspor

9 E. Engstrom

Coach · Rob Clark

Substitutes

2 · M. M. Larsson M.

16 · L. Braam

19 · I. Larsson

24 · S. E. Bardardottir

30 · E. Steen

31 · N. Axelsson

32 · E. Brannberg Johansson

33 · O. Arvidsson

Our number · eskilstuna united w winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

42% The market37%

Us42%

~~Market~~37%

We make Eskilstuna United W a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 37%. We are 5 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Eskilstuna United W v Norrköping W~~1.15 – 0.90

~~Form · last six in Damallsvenskan this season · since 28 Aug~~W1 D1 L4 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 27 v 17~~8 v 13

~~The market · Eskilstuna United W win~~37% · ours 42%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Eskilstuna United W win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 37% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Eskilstuna United W win	42%	37%	+5
Draw	28%	27%	+1
Norrköping W win	30%	36%	−6
Over 2.5 goals	34%	52%	−18
Both teams to score	39%	57%	−18
Over 1.5 goals	59%	75%	−16
Over 3.5 goals	16%	31%	−15
Eskilstuna United W or draw	70%	64%	+6
Eskilstuna United W clean sheet	41%	–	–
Norrköping W clean sheet	32%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 15.9%

0123450 12.5 12.7 5.2 1 15.9 11.7 5.8 2 8.4 7.3 3.3 3 3.3 2.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Eskilstuna United W down, Norrköping W across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,013 Damallsvenskan matches up to 4 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Damallsvenskan matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.8% of games this season, across 147 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 2.67 goals a meeting; 2 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Eskilstuna United W at home: 0.83 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Norrköping W away: 1.17 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.15 goals for Eskilstuna United W, 0.90 for Norrköping W. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.67

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 3

~~Both scored~~2 of 3

~~Last meetings~~NOR 0–2 ESK · ESK 1–2 NOR · NOR 1–2 ESK

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Damallsvenskan this season · since 28 Aug

ESKILSTUNA UNITED W

WDLLLL6–0 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 0–3 · 0–3 · 0–2

NORRKÖPING W

LLLWLD0–1 · 0–2 · 0–2 · 2–1 · 0–6 · 1–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Häcken W	21	+57	58
2	Hammarby W	21	+41	53
3	Malmö FF W	21	+26	39
4	AIK W	21	+1	34
5	Kristianstad W	21	+3	32
6	Vittsjö W	21	+3	32
7	Brommapojkarna W	21	−8	29
8	Eskilstuna United W	21	−9	27
9	Piteå W	21	−6	24
10	Djurgården W	21	−7	24
11	Rosengård W	21	−5	20
12	Växjö W	21	−19	18
13	Norrköping W	21	−18	17
14	Uppsala W	21	−59	6