Brommapojkarna W v Växjö W prediction · Damallsvenskan

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 15:35

Brommapojkarna W 2–1 Växjö W BROMMAPOJKARNA W WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Brommapojkarna W win~~55%

~~The market said~~50%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.310

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.380

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 17 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Brommapojkarna W win at 55%.
1′KICK-OFF Brommapojkarna W v Växjö W
2′Much as we predicted: Brommapojkarna W was 55% before kick-off and our model makes it 54% now. 0–0 · 54–20–26
6′We published Brommapojkarna W at 55%. Our model now makes it 74%. 1–0 · 74–15–11
6′Brommapojkarna W find the net on 5′. 1–0. 1–0 · 74–15–11
6′⚽ GOAL · 6' Brommapojkarna W 1–0 Växjö W
6′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 6' Brommapojkarna W win: 55% at kick-off, 74% now
8′Brommapojkarna W find the net on 6′. 1–0. 1–0 · 74–15–10
19′We published Brommapojkarna W at 55%. Our model now makes it 75%. 1–0 · 75–16–10
19′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 19' Brommapojkarna W win: 55% at kick-off, 75% now
30′Goals are coming at about the 3.4 we expected. 1–0 · 75–17–8
45′HALF-TIME Brommapojkarna W 1–0 Växjö W
46′SECOND HALF Brommapojkarna W 1–0 Växjö W
56′We published Brommapojkarna W at 55%. Our model now makes it 95%. 2–0 · 95–4–1
56′⚽ GOAL · 56' Brommapojkarna W 2–0 Växjö W
56′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 56' Brommapojkarna W win: 55% at kick-off, 95% now
60′Frida Thornqvist scores for Brommapojkarna W on 55′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 96–4–1
82′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Brommapojkarna W · On: villemo dahlqvist · Off: Vera Blom
82′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Växjö W · On: Tyra Andersson · Off: klara lindback
82′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Brommapojkarna W · On: olivia sjoblom · Off: Louise Lillback
83′We published Brommapojkarna W at 55%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
84′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Växjö W · On: charlotte noa eriksson barriento · Off: tilda sanden
84′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Växjö W · On: elvira hammarback · Off: thelma welin
84′🟨 YELLOW · 80' charlotte noa eriksson barriento · Växjö W
90′⚽ GOAL · 90' Brommapojkarna W 2–1 Växjö W
93′89′: mariann nielsen on the scoresheet for Växjö W, making it 2–1. 2–1 · 98–2–0
93′🟨 YELLOW · 87' alexandra larsson · Växjö W
FTFULL TIME Brommapojkarna W 2–1 Växjö W
FTBrommapojkarna W 2–1 Växjö W · Brommapojkarna W win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 2–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Brommapojkarna W are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Brommapojkarna W 55%, draw 19%, Växjö W 26%. Over 2.5 goals 65%, both teams to score 62%.

The AI’s read on Brommapojkarna W v Växjö WBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Brommapojkarna W win55%

Draw19%

Växjö W win26%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 22

VenueGrimsta IP

Line-ups

Brommapojkarna W

4-2-3-1

Växjö W

4-3-3

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Brommapojkarna W

Växjö W

9Days since last match14

Last match: 8 Oct · Svenska Cupen - Women

Last match: 3 Oct · Damallsvenskan

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Brommapojkarna W	21	−8	29
12	Växjö W	21	−19	18

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Brommapojkarna W

4-2-3-1

1 C. Ekstrand

21 A. Engman

4 J. Laukstrom

2 A. Wulff

5 W. Warulf

16 E. Gibson

8 J. Svedberg

7 V. Blom

18 I. Bengtsson

14 F. Thornqvist

10 L. Lillback

Coach · Daniel Gunnars

Substitutes

25 · M. Wangerheim

6 · S. Frigren

9 · O. Sjoblom

11 · V. Dahlqvist

12 · I. Eriksson

13 · E. Andersson

17 · A. Priks

19 · L. Hellqvist

Växjö W

4-3-3

1 M. Ostergaard

4 A. Broman

16 A. Larsson

7 N. Karlsson

11 S. Redenstrand

15 M. Hogh

33 E. Nilsson

20 T. Persson Welin

22 K. Lindback

17 S. Swedman

29 T. Sanden

Coach · Olof Unogard

Substitutes

31 · M. Kristiansen

32 · V. Persbeck

2 · E. Hammarback

5 · L. Persson

6 · S. Brajkovic

9 · T. Andersson

19 · P. M. Bladh

23 · N. Eriksson

Our number · brommapojkarna w winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

55% The market50%

Us55%

~~Market~~50%

We make Brommapojkarna W a 55% chance to win. The market has them at 50%. We are 5 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.1–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Brommapojkarna W v Växjö W~~2.07 – 1.33

~~Form · last six in Damallsvenskan this season · since 29 Aug~~W4 D1 L1 · W0 D1 L5

~~Table places · points 29 v 18~~7 v 12

~~The market · Brommapojkarna W win~~50% · ours 55%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Brommapojkarna W win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 50% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Brommapojkarna W win	55%	50%	+5
Draw	19%	24%	−5
Växjö W win	26%	26%	0
Over 2.5 goals	65%	62%	+3
Both teams to score	62%	63%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	84%	79%	+5
Over 3.5 goals	44%	41%	+3
Brommapojkarna W or draw	74%	74%	0
Brommapojkarna W clean sheet	27%	–	–
Växjö W clean sheet	14%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 9.1%

0123450 2.8 5.5 3.1 1 7.9 8.3 6.0 2.8 2 7.1 9.1 6.0 2.7 3 4.9 6.2 4.1 4 2.6 3.3 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Brommapojkarna W down, Växjö W across0–5 goals a side shown (97.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,013 Damallsvenskan matches up to 4 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Damallsvenskan matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.8% of games this season, across 147 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 7 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 3.43 goals a meeting; 5 of 7 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Brommapojkarna W at home: 1.50 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Växjö W away: 0.50 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.07 goals for Brommapojkarna W, 1.33 for Växjö W. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~3.43

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 7

~~Both scored~~5 of 7

~~Last meetings~~VAX 2–1 BRO · VAX 2–0 BRO · BRO 2–3 VAX · VAX 2–1 BRO

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Damallsvenskan this season · since 29 Aug

BROMMAPOJKARNA W

DWWWWL1–1 · 2–0 · 2–0 · 1–0 · 3–1 · 0–2

VÄXJÖ W

LLLDLL0–4 · 0–2 · 0–3 · 2–2 · 0–3 · 0–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Häcken W	21	+57	58
2	Hammarby W	21	+41	53
3	Malmö FF W	21	+26	39
4	AIK W	21	+1	34
5	Kristianstad W	21	+3	32
6	Vittsjö W	21	+3	32
7	Brommapojkarna W	21	−8	29
8	Eskilstuna United W	21	−9	27
9	Piteå W	21	−6	24
10	Djurgården W	21	−7	24
11	Rosengård W	21	−5	20
12	Växjö W	21	−19	18
13	Norrköping W	21	−18	17
14	Uppsala W	21	−59	6