AIK W v Rosengård W prediction · Damallsvenskan

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

AIK WDrawRosengård W

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 12:00

Before kick-off · Match result · AIK W 39%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with AIK W just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: AIK W 39%, draw 24%, Rosengård W 38%. Over 2.5 goals 48%, both teams to score 51%.

The AI’s read on AIK W v Rosengård WBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

AIK W win39%

Draw24%

Rosengård W win38%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 12:00

RoundMatchday 23

VenueSkytteholms IP

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

AIK W

Rosengård W

8Days since last match8

Last match: 17 Oct · Damallsvenskan

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	AIK W	22	0	34
11	Rosengård W	22	−3	23

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · aik w winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

39% The market45%

Us39%

~~Market~~45%

We make AIK W a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 45%. We are 6 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · AIK W v Rosengård W~~1.32 – 1.30

~~Form · last six in Damallsvenskan this season · since 5 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W4 D0 L2

~~Table places · points 34 v 23~~5 v 11

~~The market · AIK W win~~45% · ours 39%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · AIK W win The market, margin stripped

Published at 38%, 39% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 45% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
AIK W win	39%	45%	−6
Draw	24%	27%	−3
Rosengård W win	38%	28%	+10
Over 2.5 goals	48%	51%	−3
Both teams to score	51%	56%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	72%	74%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	27%	31%	−4
AIK W or draw	62%	72%	−10
AIK W clean sheet	28%	–	–
Rosengård W clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.0%

0123450 6.7 10.5 6.1 2.8 1 10.8 11.0 7.8 3.5 2 6.4 7.8 5.1 2.3 3 2.9 3.5 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+AIK W down, Rosengård W across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,025 Damallsvenskan matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Damallsvenskan matches have gone over 2.5 in 58.5% of games this season, across 159 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 9 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 3.89 goals a meeting; 8 of 9 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

AIK W at home: 1.33 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Rosengård W away: 0.67 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.32 goals for AIK W, 1.30 for Rosengård W. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~3.89

~~Over 2.5~~8 of 9

~~Both scored~~4 of 9

~~Last meetings~~ROS 1–2 AIK · ROS 1–2 AIK · AIK 1–0 ROS · AIK 1–5 ROS

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Damallsvenskan this season · since 5 Sept

AIK W

DWWWLL1–1 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 3–0 · 1–2 · 2–3

ROSENGÅRD W

WWLWLW1–0 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 2–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Häcken W	23	+61	64
2	Hammarby W	23	+41	56
3	Malmö FF W	23	+28	45
4	Kristianstad W	23	+7	35
5	AIK W	22	0	34
6	Vittsjö W	22	+1	32
7	Brommapojkarna W	22	−7	32
8	Djurgården W	23	−9	27
9	Eskilstuna United W	22	−10	27
10	Piteå W	22	−7	24
11	Rosengård W	22	−3	23
12	Norrköping W	22	−17	20
13	Växjö W	23	−21	18
14	Uppsala W	22	−64	6