Vasteras SK FK v Mjallby AIF prediction · Allsvenskan

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 16:04

Vasteras SK FK 1–0 Mjallby AIF MJALLBY AIF WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Mjallby AIF win~~39%

~~The market said~~33%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.640

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.547

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 24 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Mjallby AIF win at 39%.
1′KICK-OFF Vasteras SK FK v Mjallby AIF
2′Much as we predicted: Mjallby AIF was 39% before kick-off and our model makes it 38% now. 0–0 · 35–27–38
17′🟨 YELLOW · 17' Mjallby AIF
19′We said Mjallby AIF at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 1–0 · 64–22–14
19′⚽ GOAL · 19' Vasteras SK FK 1–0 Mjallby AIF
19′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 19' Mjallby AIF win: 39% at kick-off, 14% now
19′THE CALL SWINGS · 19' Vasteras SK FK win is now our likeliest result at 64% (was Mjallby AIF win 14%)
21′Vasteras SK FK ahead on 20′ through Axel Sountonoma Taonsa. 1–0. 1–0 · 64–22–14
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.6 we expected. 1–0 · 65–22–12
36′🟨 YELLOW · 35' Abdelrahman Saidi · Vasteras SK FK
36′🟨 YELLOW · 35' Tony Miettinen · Mjallby AIF
43′We said Mjallby AIF at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–0 · 68–22–9
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' Mjallby AIF win: 39% at kick-off, 9% now
45′SECOND HALF Vasteras SK FK 1–0 Mjallby AIF
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Mjallby AIF · On: Áki Samuelsen · Off: Olle Lindberg
48′HALF-TIME Vasteras SK FK 1–0 Mjallby AIF
58′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Vasteras SK FK · On: Frédéric Nsabiyumva · Off: Jack Tagesson
58′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Mjallby AIF · On: Mads Enggard · Off: Abdullah Iqbal
63′We said Mjallby AIF at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–0 · 76–20–4
69′We said Mjallby AIF at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 21%. 1–1 · 19–60–21
69′⚽ GOAL · 69' Vasteras SK FK 1–1 Mjallby AIF
69′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 69' Mjallby AIF win: 39% at kick-off, 21% now
69′THE CALL SWINGS · 69' Draw is now our likeliest result at 60% (was Vasteras SK FK win 19%)
70′Vasteras SK FK have had 14 attempts to 7 and it is still 1–1. 1–1 · 19–61–20
71′GOAL DISALLOWED · 71' Mjallby AIF
71′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 71' Mjallby AIF win: 39% at kick-off, 3% now
71′THE CALL SWINGS · 71' Vasteras SK FK win is now our likeliest result at 81% (was Draw 17%)
72′Jacob Bergstrom scores for Mjallby AIF on 70′. 1–0 · 81–16–2
78′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Mjallby AIF · On: Ludvig Tidstrand · Off: Max Nielsen
79′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Vasteras SK FK · On: Jonathan Ring · Off: Mattias Hellisdal
79′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Vasteras SK FK · On: karl gunnarsson · Off: Abdelrahman Saidi
92′SUBSTITUTION · 90+1' Vasteras SK FK · On: Peter Amoran · Off: Mamadou Diagne
95′Full time, 1–0. We called Mjallby AIF at 39% — wrong, and it goes on the record that way. 1–0 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Vasteras SK FK 1–0 Mjallby AIF
FTVasteras SK FK 1–0 Mjallby AIF · Mjallby AIF win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Mjallby AIF just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Vasteras SK FK 35%, draw 26%, Mjallby AIF 39%. Over 2.5 goals 48%, both teams to score 52%.

The AI’s read on Vasteras SK FK v Mjallby AIFBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Vasteras SK FK win35%

Draw26%

Mjallby AIF win39%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 24

VenueHitachi Energy Arena

RefereeFredrik Klitte

Line-ups

Vasteras SK FK

3-4-3

Mjallby AIF

4-1-4-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Vasteras SK FK

Mjallby AIF

9Days since last match3

Last match: 9 Oct · Allsvenskan

Last match: 15 Oct · UEFA Europa Conference League

1Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Vasteras SK FK	23	−2	35
12	Mjallby AIF	23	−11	23

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Vasteras SK FK

3-4-3

1 A. Fagerström

24 J. Tagesson

4 P. Bonde

2 H. Magnusson

11 S. Gefvert

30 M. Hellisdal

8 M. Diagne

15 J. Karlsson

19 J. Magnusson

7 A. Boudah

17 A. Taonsa

Coach · Alexander Rubin

Substitutes

5 · K. Gunnarsson

3 · M. Baggesen

23 · P. Amoran

21 · V. Wernersson

16 · Bonaventure Lendambi

18 · F. Nsabiyumva

10 · J. Ring

20 · M. Ljungqvist

33 · Alvin Kvistq

Mjallby AIF

4-1-4-1

35 A. Lundin

33 T. Miettinen

4 A. Norén

24 T. Pettersson

5 Abdullah Iqbal

22 J. Gustavsson

14 Villiam Granath

10 J. Kjær

29 Olle Lindberg

25 M. Nielsen

18 J. Bergström

Coach · A. Brännström

Substitutes

3 · M. Agnarsson

6 · M. Enggård

7 · V. Gustafson

1 · S. Hansen

26 · I. Hoffmann

23 · Á. Samuelsen

2 · L. Svanberg

27 · L. Tidstrand

39 · R. Leandersson

Our number · mjallby aif winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

39% The market33%

Us39%

~~Market~~33%

We make Mjallby AIF a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 33%. We are 6 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Vasteras SK FK v Mjallby AIF~~1.26 – 1.34

~~Form · last six in Allsvenskan this season · since 23 Aug~~W3 D1 L2 · W0 D3 L3

~~Table places · points 35 v 23~~8 v 12

~~The market · Mjallby AIF win~~33% · ours 39%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Mjallby AIF win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has not moved either.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Vasteras SK FK win	35%	40%	−5
Draw	26%	28%	−2
Mjallby AIF win	39%	33%	+6
Over 2.5 goals	48%	53%	−5
Both teams to score	52%	58%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	73%	75%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	26%	32%	−6
Vasteras SK FK or draw	61%	67%	−6
Vasteras SK FK clean sheet	27%	–	–
Mjallby AIF clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.4%

0123450 7.8 10.0 6.7 3.0 1 9.3 12.4 8.2 3.7 2 5.9 7.7 5.1 2.3 3 2.5 3.3 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Vasteras SK FK down, Mjallby AIF across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,396 Allsvenskan matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Allsvenskan matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.2% of games this season, across 186 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Vasteras SK FK at home: 1.17 scored, 0.17 conceded a game (last 6). Mjallby AIF away: 1.33 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.26 goals for Vasteras SK FK, 1.34 for Mjallby AIF. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 18 Oct 12:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 4

~~Both scored~~2 of 4

~~Last meetings~~MJA 0–0 VAS · MJA 2–1 VAS · VAS 2–1 MJA · MJA 2–0 VAS

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Allsvenskan this season · since 23 Aug

VASTERAS SK FK

DWLWWL0–0 · 3–1 · 0–1 · 4–1 · 2–0 · 0–1

MJALLBY AIF

LLDDLD0–2 · 1–4 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 0–3 · 1–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Sirius	23	+25	54
2	Djurgardens IF	24	+29	47
3	Hammarby FF	23	+28	43
4	IF Elfsborg	23	+13	40
5	BK Hacken	23	+12	39
6	Malmo FF	23	+5	36
7	IFK Goteborg	24	−9	36
8	Vasteras SK FK	23	−2	35
9	AIK Stockholm	24	−4	34
10	Gais	23	+7	30
11	IF Brommapojkarna	24	−7	30
12	Mjallby AIF	23	−11	23
13	Degerfors IF	23	−15	20
14	Kalmar FF	23	−16	19
15	Orgryte IS	23	−27	15
16	Halmstad	23	−28	14