Vasteras SK FK v Halmstad prediction · Allsvenskan

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 20:31

Vasteras SK FK 1–2 Halmstad VASTERAS SK FK WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Vasteras SK FK win~~56%

~~The market said~~56%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.008

~~The market’s Brier score~~1.006

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 25 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Vasteras SK FK win at 56%.
1′Much as we predicted: Vasteras SK FK was 56% before kick-off and our model makes it 55% now. 0–0 · 55–25–20
1′KICK-OFF Vasteras SK FK v Halmstad
34′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 34' Vasteras SK FK win: 56% at kick-off, 46% now
40′We said Vasteras SK FK at 56%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 44%. 0–0 · 44–37–19
45′Goals are coming at about the 2.5 we expected. 1–0 · 82–15–4
45′HALF-TIME Vasteras SK FK 1–0 Halmstad
46′Vasteras SK FK score on 45′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 82–15–3
46′We published Vasteras SK FK at 56%. Our model now makes it 82%. 1–0 · 82–15–3
46′⚽ GOAL · 45' Vasteras SK FK 1–0 Halmstad
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45+1' Vasteras SK FK win: 56% at kick-off, 82% now
46′SECOND HALF Vasteras SK FK 1–0 Halmstad
61′We published Vasteras SK FK at 56%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–13–2
65′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 65' Vasteras SK FK win: 56% at kick-off, 86% now
73′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Vasteras SK FK · On: Frédéric Nsabiyumva · Off: Jack Tagesson
73′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Halmstad · On: Oliver Kapsimalis · Off: Ludvig Arvidsson
73′🟨 YELLOW · 72' Rami Kaib · Halmstad
74′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Halmstad · On: Malte Persson · Off: Ajdin Zeljkovic
75′We published Vasteras SK FK at 56%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–0 · 90–10–1
78′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Vasteras SK FK · On: Jonathan Ring · Off: Mattias Hellisdal
78′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Vasteras SK FK · On: karl gunnarsson · Off: Abdelrahman Saidi
84′We published Vasteras SK FK at 56%. Our model now makes it 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
84′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Halmstad · On: Filip·Schyberg · Off: Rocco Ascone
84′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Halmstad · On: Gabriel Wallentin · Off: Rami Kaib
86′We said Vasteras SK FK at 56%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 8%. 1–1 · 8–87–4
86′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 86' Vasteras SK FK win: 56% at kick-off, 96% now
86′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Vasteras SK FK · On: Marcus Baggesen · Off: jonathan karlsson
86′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Vasteras SK FK · On: Peter Amoran · Off: Mamadou Diagne
86′⚽ GOAL · 86' Vasteras SK FK 1–1 Halmstad
86′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 86' Vasteras SK FK win: 56% at kick-off, 8% now
86′THE CALL SWINGS · 86' Draw is now our likeliest result at 87% (was Vasteras SK FK win 96%)
87′Vasteras SK FK have had 18 attempts to 8 and it is still 1–1. 1–1 · 8–89–4
88′Halmstad level it on 86′ through Pascal Gregor. 1–1. 1–1 · 7–90–4
89′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 89' Vasteras SK FK win: 56% at kick-off, 6% now
91′We said Vasteras SK FK at 56%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–93–2
92′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.5 across ninety minutes. 1–2 · 0–3–96
92′⚽ GOAL · 90+2' Vasteras SK FK 1–2 Halmstad
92′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+2' Halmstad win is now our likeliest result at 96% (was Draw 95%)
93′Hussein Carneil scores for Halmstad on 90′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 0–3–97
FTFULL TIME Vasteras SK FK 1–2 Halmstad
FTVasteras SK FK 1–2 Halmstad · Vasteras SK FK win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Vasteras SK FK are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Vasteras SK FK 56%, draw 24%, Halmstad 20%. Over 2.5 goals 46%, both teams to score 46%.

The AI’s read on Vasteras SK FK v HalmstadBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Vasteras SK FK win56%

Draw24%

Halmstad win20%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 18:00

RoundMatchday 25

VenueHitachi Energy Arena

RefereeGlenn Nyberg

Line-ups

Vasteras SK FK

5-4-1

Halmstad

4-1-4-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Vasteras SK FK

Halmstad

5Days since last match5

Last match: 18 Oct · Allsvenskan

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Vasteras SK FK	24	−1	38
16	Halmstad	24	−29	14

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Vasteras SK FK

5-4-1

34 E. Jäger

11 S. Gefvert

24 J. Tagesson

4 P. Bonde

2 H. Magnusson

15 J. Karlsson

19 J. Magnusson

30 M. Hellisdal

8 M. Diagne

7 A. Boudah

17 A. Taonsa

Coach · Alexander Rubin

Substitutes

23 · P. Amoran

3 · M. Baggesen

1 · A. Fagerström

5 · K. Gunnarsson

16 · Bonaventure Lendambi

18 · F. Nsabiyumva

10 · J. Ring

21 · V. Wernersson

20 · M. Ljungqvist

Halmstad

4-1-4-1

1 T. Rönning

17 A. Boman

5 P. Gregor

16 E. Tõugjas

24 R. Kaib

28 T. Trybull

11 L. Arvidsson

27 R. Ascone

6 J. Allansson

14 H. Carneil

23 A. Zeljkovic

Coach · S. Baxter

Substitutes

3 · G. Wallentin

4 · F. Schyberg

18 · Malte Persson

8 · N. Mäenpää

22 · Oliver Kapsimalis

19 · M. Illary

9 · O. Faraj

25 · A. Damnjanovic Nilsson

35 · A. Wihed

Our number · vasteras sk fk winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · updated 19 Oct 04:09 · locked at kick-off

56% The market56%

Us56%

~~Market~~56%

We make Vasteras SK FK a 56% chance to win. The market has them at 56%. We are level with the market. The model expects 1.6–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Vasteras SK FK v Halmstad~~1.64 – 0.87

~~Form · last six in Allsvenskan this season · since 29 Aug~~W4 D0 L2 · W2 D0 L4

~~Table places · points 38 v 14~~6 v 16

~~The market · Vasteras SK FK win~~56% · ours 56%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Vasteras SK FK win The market, margin stripped

Published at 55%, 56% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 56% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Vasteras SK FK win	56%	56%	0
Draw	24%	24%	0
Halmstad win	20%	20%	0
Over 2.5 goals	46%	56%	−10
Both teams to score	46%	56%	−10
Over 1.5 goals	71%	78%	−7
Over 3.5 goals	25%	35%	−10
Vasteras SK FK or draw	80%	80%	0
Vasteras SK FK clean sheet	42%	–	–
Halmstad clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.5%

0123450 8.4 7.2 3.1 1 13.5 11.3 5.0 2 10.8 9.3 4.0 3 6.0 5.1 2.2 4 2.5 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Vasteras SK FK down, Halmstad across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,402 Allsvenskan matches up to 19 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Allsvenskan matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.1% of games this season, across 192 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 5 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 2.40 goals a meeting; 2 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Vasteras SK FK at home: 1.00 scored, 0.17 conceded a game (last 6). Halmstad away: 0.50 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.64 goals for Vasteras SK FK, 0.87 for Halmstad. Most likely score 1–0.

Line-ups

Confirmed 23 Oct 17:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.40

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 5

~~Both scored~~3 of 5

~~Last meetings~~HAL 1–3 VAS · HAL 0–1 VAS · VAS 0–1 HAL · HAL 1–1 VAS

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Allsvenskan this season · since 29 Aug

VASTERAS SK FK

WLWWLW3–1 · 0–1 · 4–1 · 2–0 · 0–1 · 1–0

HALMSTAD

WLLWLL1–0 · 0–2 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 0–4 · 0–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Sirius	24	+25	55
2	Djurgardens IF	24	+29	47
3	Hammarby FF	24	+29	46
4	BK Hacken	24	+13	42
5	IF Elfsborg	24	+13	41
6	Vasteras SK FK	24	−1	38
7	Malmo FF	24	+4	36
8	IFK Goteborg	24	−9	36
9	AIK Stockholm	24	−4	34
10	Gais	24	+5	30
11	IF Brommapojkarna	24	−7	30
12	Mjallby AIF	24	−12	23
13	Kalmar FF	24	−15	22
14	Degerfors IF	24	−16	20
15	Orgryte IS	24	−25	18
16	Halmstad	24	−29	14