Sirius v AIK Stockholm prediction · Allsvenskan

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 16:33

Sirius 1–2 AIK Stockholm SIRIUS WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Sirius win~~54%

~~The market said~~60%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.893

~~The market’s Brier score~~1.067

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay15 notes · 27 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Sirius win at 54%.
2′Little has changed for our model: Sirius 54% before kick-off, 53% now. 0–0 · 53–21–25
2′KICK-OFF Sirius v AIK Stockholm
30′A goal for AIK Stockholm on 30′. 0–0 · 48–27–25
31′We said Sirius at 54%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 23%. 0–1 · 23–25–52
31′The goal count is tracking the 3.4 we expected. 0–1 · 23–25–52
31′⚽ GOAL · 30' Sirius 0–1 AIK Stockholm
31′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 31' Sirius win: 54% at kick-off, 23% now
31′THE CALL SWINGS · 31' AIK Stockholm win is now our likeliest result at 52% (was Sirius win 48%)
33′⚽ GOAL · 33' Sirius 1–1 AIK Stockholm
33′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 33' Sirius win: 54% at kick-off, 47% now
33′THE CALL SWINGS · 33' Sirius win is now our likeliest result at 47% (was AIK Stockholm win 53%)
34′32′: Joakim Persson on the scoresheet for Sirius, making it 1–1. 1–1 · 47–29–25
38′🟨 YELLOW · 35' S. Wilson · AIK Stockholm
45′HALF-TIME Sirius 1–2 AIK Stockholm
47′We said Sirius at 54%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 42%. 1–1 · 42–34–23
47′SECOND HALF Sirius 1–2 AIK Stockholm
48′We said Sirius at 54%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 16%. 1–2 · 16–26–58
48′⚽ GOAL · 45+3' Sirius 1–2 AIK Stockholm
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+3' Sirius win: 54% at kick-off, 16% now
48′THE CALL SWINGS · 45+3' AIK Stockholm win is now our likeliest result at 58% (was Sirius win 42%)
49′AIK Stockholm ahead on 45′ through Johan Hove. 1–2. 1–2 · 16–26–58
49′SUBSTITUTION · 45' AIK Stockholm · On: Lukas Bergquist · Off: S. Wilson
52′We said Sirius at 54%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–2 · 14–26–60
52′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 52' Sirius win: 54% at kick-off, 14% now
57′SUBSTITUTION · 55' Sirius · On: Otso Liimatta · Off: Ake Andersson
63′We said Sirius at 54%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–2 · 9–25–66
63′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Sirius · On: N. Jönsson · Off: Otso Liimatta
63′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Sirius · On: Zalán Vancsa · Off: Victor Svensson
65′10 shots for Sirius, 5 the other way, and they still trail 1–2. 1–2 · 8–25–67
65′SUBSTITUTION · 64' AIK Stockholm · On: Linus Carlstrand · Off: Sixten Gustafsson
68′🟨 YELLOW · 67' Mohamed Soumah · Sirius
72′Sirius have had 13 attempts to 6 and it is still 1–2. 1–2 · 5–22–73
74′We said Sirius at 54%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–2 · 4–21–75
74′🟨 YELLOW · 72' Eskil Smidesang Edh · AIK Stockholm
74′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 74' Sirius win: 54% at kick-off, 4% now
77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' AIK Stockholm · On: Martin Ellingsen · Off: Yannick Emilio Geiger
78′SUBSTITUTION · 76' AIK Stockholm · On: Mads Thychosen · Off: Eskil Smidesang Edh
84′16 shots for Sirius, 10 the other way, and they still trail 1–2. 1–2 · 1–11–88
87′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Sirius · On: Simon Sandberg · Off: Melker Heier
90′SUBSTITUTION · 88' AIK Stockholm · On: linus jareteg · Off: Taha Ayari
94′20 shots for Sirius, 10 the other way, and they still trail 1–2. 1–2 · 0–2–98
FTFULL TIME Sirius 1–2 AIK Stockholm
FTSirius 1–2 AIK Stockholm · Sirius win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Sirius are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Sirius 54%, draw 21%, AIK Stockholm 25%. Over 2.5 goals 66%, both teams to score 64%.

The AI’s read on Sirius v AIK StockholmBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Sirius win54%

Draw21%

AIK Stockholm win25%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 25

VenueStudenternas IP

RefereeAdam Ladeback

Line-ups

Sirius

4-3-3

AIK Stockholm

4-3-3

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Sirius

AIK Stockholm

6Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · Allsvenskan

Last match: 17 Oct · Allsvenskan

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Sirius

4-3-3

34 D. Celic

5 H. Castegren

2 Mohamed Soumah

4 T. Anker

22 O. Krusnell

24 V. Svensson

10 M. Heier

6 M. Lindberg

7 J. Persson

29 Ake Andersson

11 I. Bjerkebo

Coach · Andreas Engelmark

Substitutes

1 · I. Diawara

20 · V. Ekström

17 · N. Jönsson

16 · O. Liimatta

21 · C. Nildén

15 · S. Sandberg

30 · Z. Vancsa

18 · A. Wikman

25 · O. Adindu

AIK Stockholm

4-3-3

15 K. Nordfeldt

2 E. Edh

33 D. Tomas

34 W. Olofsson

21 S. Wilson

45 T. Ayari

18 A. Ali

46 Yannick Geiger

8 J. Hove

16 Sixten Gustafsson

48 A. Kouame

Coach · Jose Riveiro

Substitutes

14 · F. Nissen

17 · M. Thychosen

30 · K. Joelsson

28 · L. Järeteg

7 · A. Mujanić

6 · M. Ellingsen

9 · L. Carlstrand

5 · L. Bergquist

10 · L. Assadi

Our number · sirius winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

54% The market60%

Us54%

~~Market~~60%

We make Sirius a 54% chance to win. The market has them at 60%. We are 6 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.1–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Sirius v AIK Stockholm~~2.07 – 1.36

~~Form · last six in Allsvenskan this season · since 31 Aug~~W4 D1 L1 · W0 D3 L3

~~Table places · points 55 v 34~~1 v 9

~~The market · Sirius win~~60% · ours 54%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Sirius win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 60% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Sirius win	54%	60%	−6
Draw	21%	21%	0
AIK Stockholm win	25%	19%	+6
Over 2.5 goals	66%	64%	+2
Both teams to score	64%	61%	+3
Over 1.5 goals	85%	83%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	45%	43%	+2
Sirius or draw	75%	81%	−6
Sirius clean sheet	26%	–	–
AIK Stockholm clean sheet	13%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 9.3%

0123450 3.4 4.5 3.0 1 6.8 9.1 6.1 2.8 2 6.9 9.3 6.3 2.9 3 4.8 6.4 4.3 4 2.5 3.3 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Sirius down, AIK Stockholm across0–5 goals a side shown (97.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,404 Allsvenskan matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Allsvenskan matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.1% of games this season, across 194 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.80 goals a meeting; 6 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Sirius at home: 1.67 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). AIK Stockholm away: 1.67 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.07 goals for Sirius, 1.36 for AIK Stockholm. Most likely score 2–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 24 Oct 13:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.80

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~AIK 0–3 SIR · AIK 2–1 SIR · SIR 3–1 AIK · SIR 0–1 AIK

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Allsvenskan this season · since 31 Aug

SIRIUS

LWWWWD0–1 · 1–0 · 2–0 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 2–2

AIK STOCKHOLM

DLDLLD0–0 · 1–4 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 5–6 · 2–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Sirius	24	+25	55
2	Djurgardens IF	24	+29	47
3	Hammarby FF	24	+29	46
4	BK Hacken	24	+13	42
5	IF Elfsborg	25	+13	42
6	Vasteras SK FK	25	−2	38
7	Malmo FF	25	+4	37
8	IFK Goteborg	24	−9	36
9	AIK Stockholm	24	−4	34
10	Gais	24	+5	30
11	IF Brommapojkarna	24	−7	30
12	Mjallby AIF	24	−12	23
13	Kalmar FF	24	−15	22
14	Degerfors IF	24	−16	20
15	Orgryte IS	24	−25	18
16	Halmstad	25	−28	17